Tuesday, September 05, 2006

DCCC Poll Suggests 2nd District Too Close to Call

The DCCC is claiming that Joe Courtney is ahead of Rob Simmons by a very slender margin:
Courtney also acknowledged that his campaign's internal polls jive with new numbers being touted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which a spokeswoman last week insisted "look very good" for the challenger.

When 2nd District voters were asked whether the country was on the "right track" or "wrong track," the spokeswoman said, 70 percent responded that the nation was headed in the "wrong" direction while 22 percent said it was on the "right track." The committee didn't release further details of the survey, including the number of people polled, and when the poll was conducted.

The DCCC also cited President Bush's especially poor performance rating from voters in the district - 65 percent unfavorable to 26 percent favorable - and said its polling suggests that Courtney now leads Simmons by a single percentage point, 41 percent to 40 percent. (Michak)

Now, this is a DCCC poll, so take it with a shaker of salt. But if the poll is anything close to being accurate, and the closeness of recent 2nd District races suggest it is, then this is going to be another close one. Which we knew already. The Courtney camp is pretty thrilled, however, saying in a press release that "A challenger leading this early is unprecedented in the Second Congressional District."
If Courtney's ahead, that's pretty good for a campaign that has yet to make much noise. Expect Simmons to respond forcefully--he has thus far thrived in close races.


Michak, Don. "Close Simmons/Courtney rematch likely to get even more heated." Journal-Inquirer 5 September, 2006.


Anonymous said...

from Norwich Bulletin, 9/8/04:

The only polling results released was a poll conducted by the DCCC and the Sullivan campaign after the Aug. 10 primary, claiming that Sullivan and Simmons, the two-term Republican incumbent, in a "virtual tie."

The Democratic polling firm of Cooper & Secrest suggested Simmons held a slight 41-39 percent advantage.

RESULT: Simmons Defeats Jim Sullivan 54-46

Anonymous said...

Don Michak wrote this? And this is a poll from the DCCC? I'm sure there is no slant there!!! Good for Courtney!! It probably means he's within 20 points!!!

Anonymous said...

Great post anon. 429.

The DCCC must poll differently, but they only have 81% of the vote (41-40). I bet that when they pushed for "leaners" the numbers jumped up for Simmons. Similar to 2 years ago.

Obviously, the mood in the district is going against Bush and that is not good for Simmons. It is very telling, however, that the DCCC did not disclose Simmons' re-elect number.

Any pollster will tell you that is the critical number to look at regarding an incumbant.

Anonymous said...

here's the kicker to this poll....

from the Bully website, presumably from Hackett:

"The D-Triple-C claims Courtney actually leads Simmons in a poll of 2nd District voters 41-40 percent.

The national political organization, however, did not release any details of the poll - when it was conducted, how many voters surveyed or the margin of error."

hmmm......."no details of the poll."

Anonymous said...

from the Bulletin website, via Hackett I presume:

"The national political organization, however, did not release any details of the poll - when it was conducted, how many voters surveyed or the margin of error."

Bobby McGee said...

I agree. With no other information about this poll, how it was conducted, and any other numbers this in next to useless. We'd have to see the trends and other data from this poll to get any kind of an accurate picture.

Anonymous said...

Simmons is holding the most Democratic district in the country with a GOP representative.

Jeez, after the all the doom and gloom from the media and giddiness from the Dems this doesn;t look all that impressive for them, now does it?

Anonymous said...

Some more information on this poll would be great, until then I would not think too much about it. For all we know they made 10 phone calls and that was to the Courtney volunteers working that night out of his office. I'll be interested if they are questioned enough if they will even release it or is this just trying to keep Courtney positive. I mean by the numbers of the district one would think he should have more then a 1 point advantage. Just going to have to wait and see, if I was Joe Courtney I would not be banking on that poll too much.

Anonymous said...

If I were Simmons, I would be nervous. Didn't Joe come back from 20 or so points in '02 only to lose slightly to Simmons?

The fact that Joe Courtney starts ahead (and not 20 points behind) in EARLY SEPTEMBER! is encouraging to his campaign.

We'll see -- it seems that things are all going the right way for Courtney - decent press coverage, good money, good national support.

And by the way, what idiot at the Simmons campaign thought it would be a good idea to bring Bush Sr. along? Doesn't the Simmons' camp realize that it is Simmons alignment with the Bush family that gets him in trouble in the first place?

Anonymous said...

8 points is 2002 was a "slight" victory?

IIRC, Rowland ran poorly in the 2nd CD. I don;t expect that from Jodi

Anonymous said...

Bottom line: Simmons is a six year incumbent and he can't even break 40%?

Meanwhile, Simmons has been around for 6 years - everyone in the district knows who he is.  On top of that, let's take a look at some of the things he's done recently:
-  About a month ago he contacted every household in the district with a direct mail peice (from his Congressional office, and at taxpayer expense no less) to tout his pork projects
-  He's been on television with the Chamber of Commerce ads for three weeks
- And according to Ghengis, he's commissioned a push poll - we can only assume how many thousands they've contacted.

Given all the money that's been spent on Simmons' behalf (both by the Chamber, his congressional office, and on the polling firm), it should trouble Simmons that he's losing to a challenger who's not even shown up on tv yet.

I'm willing to bet that once Joe Courtney goes on television and his name recognition shoots through the roof that Simmons will be in some serious trouble. And then I will return to say I told you so!

Anonymous said...

Anon 11.08, and Joe Courtney after running for four years with Bush as popular as Lyme Disease right now doesn;t have a lead.

curious said...

The UCONN polling guy said in this article that Simmons is LESS vulnerable then Johnson and Shays. So if Simmons is already in a dead heat, does that mean Johnson and Shays are behind? Any polls out in those races?