MoE +/- 3%
This is an online Zogby poll, so the methodology is, as usual, suspect. Still, maybe there's a trend here to analyze. The last Zogby poll showed a lead of 10% for Lieberman.
Then again, a recent Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll showed Lieberman leading by double-digits, as did the last Q-poll in August. Two mid-August polls by Rasmussen and American Research Group showed a much, much tighter race. How much Schlesinger can draw from Lieberman may prove to be crucial.
Bottom line? Who knows? It's probably closer than 16%, but maybe not quite as close as 4%. Here's the trend:
"Zogby/WSJ Battleground States Poll." Connecticut Senate. 11 September, 2006.