Connecticut Politics and Elections: Coverage, Analysis, Maps and Commentary
worse still, only 15 % of Lieberman supporters say they might change their mind. The mold is hardening it's the electorate is not shaped Ned's way
This is the beginning of the end for Ned Lamont Only 40 days to go I guess the rich boy will have to throw away more of his money and still lose in November.Happy Days Are here Again!!!!!!Go LIEBERMAN!!!!!!
If Alan gets less than 15%, I'll eat my hat. More than 20% voted for a child molester six years ago...
The 4th Congressional District is Rell and Lieberman's strongest district. The big question: is it going to be Rell-Lieberman-Shays or Rell-Lieberman-Farrell?
turfgrrl said... The big question: is it going to be Rell-Lieberman-Shays or Rell-Lieberman-Farrell?Considering we picked up around $675,000 this past Monday, most of which the RNC will now match for our Victory 06 efforts; and those (Victory 06) are the same fine folks that delivered Chaffee's 10 point win less than 20 days after polls put him 9 points behind......well you can probably figure it out.
Authentic Connecticut Republican said...those (Victory 06) are the same fine folks that delivered Chaffee's 10 point win less than 20 days after polls put him 9 points behindLet's not get too crazy about the amazing come from behind win - given the inability to poll correrctly in a state that allows indys to vote in either primary, its much more likely that the poll cited was inaccurate than it is that Chafee made 19 point gains in less than three weeks...
ACR- Possibly. But I don' think a heavy RNC push will help Shays in the 4th. In other parts of the country 4th CD Republicans are considered Democrats.
Mr. Authentic Connecticut RINO (or Chafee backer),perhaps you'd explain why ct republican folks are willing to go to rhode island to help chafee, but not willing to go to shelton to help schlesinger?
turfgrrl said... In other parts of the country 4th CD Republicans are considered Democrats.As if Chaffee's some sort of conservative?It's methodology not ideology that wins elections.Properly fielding a candidate isn't much different than bringing out a new brand of detergent or re-introducing an old favorite in a new package.
We're back at square one. Where's the passionate Lamont team? With the Lieberman lead is a 10 point lead for Bush! I'm so disheartened. All this work for nothing. Same old, same old. And democrats lose again!
Yet another institution reveals its electoral discrimination towards third parties. According to the universe that Dr. Douglas Schwartz inhabits, Cliff Thornton doesn't deserve his name. By saying "someone else," Schwartz and his "scientific" polling create an immediate prejudice towards whoever else is running by not even giving those candidates the respect of their own selves.At first, I thought polling was a potentially reformable situation. While I totally support exit polling as a means of verifying votes on election day (witness the Ukraine and Ohio), I think that the current bias towards the two party system, combined with the history of polls as a tool to manipulate public opinion (devised by the precursor to the CIA, the OSS), should raise question of whether or not our elections would be better off without polls.I am trying to imagine a Lamont-Lieberman race where we didn't track numbers like it was a sports event, and instead focused on the ideas both men pepper us with. Or I am trying to think of how JDS would fare against MJR if we didn't know how many people blindly supported Rell. Perhaps polls are good for finding out exactly how uninformed people in Connecticut are.In Quinnipiac's poll, 33 percent of respondents said the economy is the most important factor in the gubernatorial election, yet under Rell/Rowland, Connecticut has lost jobs. To quote Cliff Thornton, if we Nutmeggers are lucky, by 2008, Connecticut will have the same number of jobs it had in 1988.As I said last night, a more sane man might settle into despair after watching this election unfold, but I am unbounded by optimism for the human race, although sometimes I can't quite figure out why...
The reality of the situation is the Schlesinger's numbers are bound to go up through out the campaign, especially during the debates, every vote he gets is going to be pulled from Lieberman, so even if Alan gets about 12%-15% that is a huge hit to Joe. I think Alan will play the spoiler resulting in a Lamont victory and ya know what that is exactly what CT deserves; is this a prick rich kid senator that has no idea what he is doing and were all going to pay for it but we brough it on ourselves so be ready for at least 6 years of hell!
If Lieberman asked the Q-poll for a 15 point lead they would have given him that.The Q had Lamont up in the primary by 13 one week out and then 6 points up 3 days out.A 7 point swing in 3 days. This proved to me and anyone else reading it they were fixing their numbers.
Anonymous,I don't follow. Lamont won by 4%. I think that the Q-Poll pretty accurately gauged the trend.
Hey, where's CTRevolution?On August 29, at 11:06 a.m., CTRev had this to say about the Zogby poll: This poll shows what I expect to happen. That this race will tighten significantly. Although these numbers might be a little ahead of the trend, I expect the Q poll to show them accurate down the line.And on September 14, CTRevolution said: DeStefano currently is down by 18. He has two months to take 9 points away from Rell. I can't wait to see the next Q poll.The next Q Poll's out. 'Nuff said.
GenghisDo you believe there was a 7 point swing in 4 days and then another 2 point swing the next 3 all towards Lieberman? The Q's polling throughout the Primary was a joke.They stuck their neck out 60 days out when Schwartz declared on TV that Lieberman couldn't be beat. From that day foward they gave Lieberman whatever number he asked for.The Lesson,Never trust a poll whose roots are in the place it's polling.
these polls are getting retarded.......one poll has lamont down by 10 another less than 2.........whoever is being surveyed in these polls must not be high informed voters......the election will come down to who is more energized on voting day.
I'm proud of the 37% of Democrats who are "sticking with Joe". It shows ideaology trumps party loyalty, and Lamont is too far left for many Dems. Another example of how Moveon.org and Daily Kos are primed to destroy the party by nominating candidates who are too far out of the mainstream.
Has anyone read the Questions in the Q-poll.Doug Schwartz is running a pushpoll for Lieberman not an unbiased poll.
Lieberman is a petitioning cnadidate not an independent candidate as Schwartz suggests in his poll questions; does it make a difference in the response? who knows but it, along with a few other constructs in the poll, shows what I have said in the past that the Q poll isn't the quality operation it once was.
ADANR, from what I understand DeStefano's polling has him within 20, this is consistent with other polls. This Q poll was taken after weeks of Rell ads as well as before people had a chance to see DeStefano's general election commercials. I expect these as well as earned media hits to give DeStefano added points. Both debates should easily be won by DeStefano, which will help him in the polls. Ultimately, I believe DeStefano will come up fast toward the end as undecided voters turn to him. Obviously, he's down by quite a bit here, but I can imagine numerous scenarios that allow him to win. The numbers in my opinion are quite fluid. As anybody who has phone banked can tell you; Rell’s support is a mile wide and an inch thick.
From your lips to god's ears CTRevolution, but a 30 point (or 20 point or whatever) deficit is an awful lot to make up in six weeks with no money.DeStefano's staff is thoroughly unmotivated, and if they're not persuaded, it's hard to get others excited either. Part of the problem is that universal healthcare hasn't -- for whatever reason -- resonated with voters this year. This is unfortunate, especially because it would have been a great-tie in with the federal races (c.f. Medicare Part-NancyJ Prescription Drug Coverage).
I can imagine numerous scenarios that allow him to win.I can too: Nuclear war, alien invastion, the Rapture ... None of them are especially likely, but they're scenarios.The numbers in my opinion are quite fluid.Fluid as in, they started out nine months ago at 30 points and here we are, five and a half weeks out and they're 33 points?Rell’s support is a mile wide and an inch thick.Sure, if by inch thick you mean 87-8 among Republicans, 67-25 among Independents and 42-53 among Democrats.Frankly, if I losing 42 percent of my own party to my opponent, I'd be worrying about drowning in that inch.
As I posted on the other thread the head of the CBIA, that as an organization does not endorse candidtes in the state race, has endorsed JDS and he's noted that within the CBIA there is support varies for both MJR and JDS. Folks will begin to ask why and look at this race with some scrtuiny before they go to the polls. JDS would probably be smart to lighten up on the universal healthcare, which is at best an undefined concept and more likely doomed to be blocked by the medical and insurance lobbies who have more power in this state than most any in the countyr if you look at hisotry, and focus on his other programs as well as defining their cost rather than letting some college kid Republicans define them for him.
John DeStefano does not have a message, is not gaining any traction, and his campaign, other than this latest TV spot which is fairly lame, is virtually invisible. He is overshadowed by all that is happening on the Congressional level, which will only intensify as we get closer to 11/7.Put a fork in him, he's done. His time may be better spent at this point focusing on his next mayoral race -- as he's up again next fall.
Actually, I'd say the Congressional campaigns are now plateauing when it comes to voters being open to hearing the saturation of messages from the cnadidiates. I am seeing and hearing now more focus on what's going on with the state races.
and before I get blasted for being heartless on the universal healthcare business; look at the problem defined in the UHCF info - 300,000 uninsured with 100,000 by choice and the rest mostly by ignorance of existing programs for one reason or another; first, get the 200,000 enrolled; second, help the insurance companies have the power they need to get to pay for quality performance instead of pay for showing up; third, work on the problem of the uninsured by choice - mostly singles in their 20's among whose ranks some get real sick and stiff the system with the bill but it's not as much money as you'd think.
DeStefano by 4, I'm calling it. DeStefano's vision vs. 4 more years of Republican Rell, it's time for people to wake up and to feel the winds of change. In 6 weeks we will be looking back amazed that Rell was ever up by this much and how fast she lost her support.
Anon6p: That's mighty bold for an Anon ... care to risk associating an actual name, or even a blogging handle, with that prognostication?Bluecoat: I hate to quibble, but with only 19 percent indicating they may change their minds, the number of people taking a serious look at these races between now and November 7 is frankly negligible.
New Zogby Poll has DeStefano down by only 16! After 300,000 dollars worth of TV, Rell is losing points!!! That's right, we can argue the merit of the different polls, but Rell is clearly losing support. And with two debates and more DeStefano tv time to go, I think we got a race on our hands. It's time to man the phones and spread the message. The firing of Jodi Rell will commence Nov. 7th.
Zogby's polling is virtually worthless.CBIA did NOT endorse JD as an organization, as they don't endorse candidates. You need to check your facts.Trust me when I say that whatever JD has to throw at Rell pales in comparison to what she can use against him -- starting with the state of New Haven and working through all of the baggage of his past -- which far surpasses being linked to Rowland.Hopefully she has the guts to use it.
It looks like "dark blue CT" isn't so blue after all. It has been 20 years since the last Democratic governor was elected in this state. When Rell walks to victory in November the streak will extend to 24 years by the end of her term. Independent Joe Lieberman also appears to be on his way victory. I'm hoping the three Dem congressional candidates go down to defeat as well just to show CT's liberal Democrats how insignificant they really are. It will teach them a good lesson - if you veer to far left, then the general electorate will repudiate you.
1) I'd like to see absolutely no polling in the last 2-3 weeks before an election. That would be fair, and while the candidates will terar their hair out... at least it leaves things to chance.2) Polls should include 3rd parties. It doesn't take that much to add another couple lines.3) Schlesinger will pick up votes, esp. after the debates. Republicans are "voting" for Lierberman now but as they see how far ahead of Lamont he is, they'll decide he's 'safe' and they can throw their vote to Schlesinger.4) I'm going for a Rell 54 - DeStefano 38 win. I honestly think that the 3rd parties will get a decent precentage here.
my god, an unreliable poll shows DeStefano headed for a loss as devastating as Julie Belaga's shellacking at the hands of Billy O'Neill and the netroots think it's good news.The sky in my part of CT is blue
Oh, CTRev, you crack me up, you really do ... First you can't wait for the Q Poll to back up the spurious Zobgy numbers, then when it doesn't you trash the Q Poll and -- what the hell -- go all in for the Zogster. 'Cause hey, he shows us gaining two whole points! It's not like that's inside the margin of erro ... Oh, wait. Yeah. It is.But with a little over five weeks out we're "only" down by 16 points! That's half what those bad old baddies at the Q Poll said. Why wouldn't we show Zogby the love?Yeah for Zogby!
Only 39 days Left Liberals I bet you will be on the losing side on November 7th.Election Night will be a combination wake/funeral for you Lamont Groupies So enjoy these last 5 weeks Because your choice is going to lose.
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