17. Connecticut's 4th District: This race slides down the Line as we hear that Rep. Chris Shays' (R) favorable ratings are extremely healthy -- making it difficult for 2004 nominee Dianne Farrell to peel away the necessary votes to defeat the incumbent. Shays, who recently made his 14th trip to Iraq and proclaims that he understands the situation there better than any other member of Congress, is expected to lay out a plan for a withdrawal timeline next month. After years of support for the war, will voters see this as a flip flop on Shays' part? Or will the move win him support among war opponents who will give him credit for searching for solutions? (Previous ranking: 9)What I find interesting is that while the races in the 2nd and 4th Districts both tumbled in this week’s ranking, the race in the 5th District made its debut. Personally, I think Representative Shays is the most vulnerable of the three incumbents, but I still believe that all three incumbents will win re-election (although, it should be very close).
15. Connecticut's 5th District: Given her demonstrated fundraising ability ($2.6 million on hand at the end of June) and her longevity in Congress (24 years), Nancy Johnson (R) isn't an obvious target. But, Republican insiders say that MoveOn.org's "red handed" commercials that ran earlier this cycle did damage to Johnson's image. Plus, state Sen. Chris Murphy (D) is running an extremely active campaign with $1 million in the bank. The district is extremely competitive (Kerry won it by 1,100 votes in 2004) and if voters are looking for a fresh face Johnson could be in trouble. (Previous ranking: N/A)
11. Connecticut's 2nd District: There are two ways of thinking about this race. If voters in this eastern Connecticut district see their vote as an expression of dissatisfaction with President Bush and the war in Iraq, then Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is in serious trouble. If, however, the main motivating factors for voters are more local in scope -- like Simmons' help in saving the Groton submarine base from closure -- then the incumbent could pull it out. Republicans note that Simmons already beat Democratic nominee Joe Courtney soundly in 2002, but the environment has changed drastically since then. (Previous ranking: 7)
Source
Cillizza, Chris. “The Friday Line: U.S. House Races.” Washington Post, The Fix (Political Blog) September 1, 2006.
32 comments:
two years ago on the "beltway boys" on the saturday before the election, mort kondracke (a reasonable commentator) had simmons pegged as a loser because that's what the polls were saying. Rob won with 58% of the vote. As long as Rob and DC Rs stay paranoid about the 2cd, Rob wins.
Mr. Simmons has served the entirety of D2 well... He's assisted North Central CT with transportation planning, revitalization, recreation strategy, homeland security, fair-trade protections for CT manufacturers, and has led candid discussions on the importance of intelligence gathering and the way our national defense is conducted.
My children have called his office for school project-related questions and have received near-imediate responses. My husband has also called with concerns and have been treated equally as well.
I very much agree with the last statement- at this time, it looks like the 3 Rep seats will hold, with Shays being the closest call.
Ned Lamont has helped these guys by taking the air out of the room, preventing their challengers from getting mindshare in the electorate.
I think the Dems will retake the U.S. House- but if it's close, these races will be key. And the 52% of CT Dems who voted in the primary will bear partial responsibility for another two years of Denny Hastert.
Oh, and with Lieberman winning, the whole Lamont effort becomes a HUGE NET LOSS.
Chris Murphy's numbers are getting stronger and the race is very competative. On his side are the public's desire for change, his excellent campaigning skills and loads of grassroots support. Nancy looks very vulnerable this time, her record is making her base unhappy; her deciding vote that passed the "Reverse Robin Hood Bill"; the mess that is Medicare Part D; her diminished record on the enviornment; and frankly she hasn't brought a lot of support home to Connecticut. The poll numbers are reflecting public sentiment, it's time for a change in the 5th District.
I'll politely disagree with the foregoing analyis.
At least one, probably two and perhaps three of the challengers win in November. The climate is too far gone for all three Republicans to survive - especially if the numbers continue to fall. For example the poll released today showing the erroding support for the war on terror.
That said: I would rank Courtney the best shot, Murphy number two and Farrell a distant third to win.
While Courtney did lose four years ago, things are very different today. Its a democratic area, where John DeStefano may actually be able to help a little (he'll likely run well in parts of the district - even though he isn't likely to win himself).
Murphy has always defied expectations. He beat an incumbent republican for his State House seat. Won a republican state senate seat. His fundraising is far exceeding what anyone thought. Every new poll shows him closer and closer to Nancy. moreover, if she wasn't scared why was she running attack ads in April, May and July - hell in April he hadn't even been nominated yet and she was attacking.
Finally ,Farrell - not so sure here. This is a rematch and as close as she came in 2004, it was still three or four points. I find it hard to fathom that, barrring a complete Democratic tidal wave, that Farrell can win. She came close (but not nearly as close as Charollote Koskoff in the 6th in 1996) in a good Democratic Presidential year with John Kerry driving the vote (he won CT with a good margin). And Chris Dodd on the Ticket. If she couldn't win then, I find it a tough battle to win now with Rell on the ticket. Rell will run very well in the 4th cd. Essentially Farrell will need to win a bunch of towns that Rell wins too in order to pull it off. That is a tall order indeed. (don't get me wrong, I hope she wins, I'm just not counting on it)
snore. the real story is lamont-lieberman.
Love to all...........
I prefer the mountains of PA
The rankings, in my opinion, are on target with Simmons being the most vulnerable of the 3, followed by Johnson and then Shays. I also don't think that this should come as any surprise, because the 2d is the least Republican of the 3 districts.
I don't think that Shays is vulnerable. Shays traditionally has much better numbers in non-Presidential election years. Farrell's negatives are going way up and she knows it. Although the district is largely anti-war, it is also one of the more educated, independent thinking districts in the country. That is why no one, other than partisan Ds, believes Farrell when she calls Shays a "Republican lapdog". Finally, the 4th CD has elected a Republican for the past 40-odd years, even in really bad R years ala Watergate. The other 2 districts have a history of electing Ds.
My prediction: Simmons loses a very close race, Johnson wins, but it is much closer than expected (Murphy runs again in 2008) and Shays wins by the same margin as 2004.
Courtney has the best chance simply because of the nature of the district. CT-2 is the bluest congressional district in the country held by a republican, and this is the one place where people will vote to oust the GOP congress--neither Simmons' fervant base nor Courtney too-nice-to-be-a-politician problem will stem that tide.
I don't think Murphy's really got a shot, unfortunately. That it looks like it's closing is typical as an election nears, and not really indicative of the electorate. He lacks name recognition and she doesn't lose. How long has she been in that seat?
And Diane, dear sweet Diane. She was screwed in the primary. All 3 are hampered by the continuation of the Senate contest (note that I'm not blaming either lamont's challenge or joe-mentum's staying in the race--that's for y'all to judge) because it dominates the coverage, but Farrell needed Malloy on the ticket to win. It was the only way to get Dems out in F'field County, which is why her team worked so hard for Malloy at the convention. DeStefano doesn't help any of them, but I don't think he hurts Courtney too much. His primary win dashed any hope Farrell had of victory however.
Sadly, the State Democratic primary really did set the State Democratic Party up for what could be a disastrous November.
Losing 2 if not 3 important congressional challenges and losing a senate seat during a cycle in which the party is trying to win control of congress--not to mention the gubernatorial drubbing which awaits.
At least we've got the constitutional offices locked up.
Johnson has been there for 24 years - way too long! Murphy was the underdog in previous general assembly races, and pulled off upsets. All signs point to this being his year to win the 5th
lisoundgirl said: "Johnson has been there for 24 years - way too long!"
I'm just curious, did you express the same opinion in 2004 with Sen. Chris "24 yrs in the Senate" Dodd?
If you are opposed to people serving for too long then it should work both ways shouldn't it?
truebluect said at 3:33 "that you, like Joe, are a "Democrat" who knows nothing about basic loyalty."
trueblue, I am a Democrat from Trumbull. My State Senator Bill Finch is sticking with his endorsement of Joe Lieberman. I don't agree with him, but it would be unfair to say that he "knows nothing about basic loyalty" as you suggest.
I think it is quite the opposite. Bill is endorsing Joe because of his sense of loyalty. I just think we need to stop beating each other up and concentrate on who the real opposition is here.
Anon. 457 said
"My State Senator Bill Finch is sticking with his endorsement of Joe Lieberman."
Has anyone else heard that?
Anon. 457, how do you know that is true?
Any other dems other than Amann & Finch endorsing Lieberman?
Anon. 4:57 said - For what it's worth, I ran into Bill several days ago in Bridgeport and he told me that he was sticking with Joe. I told him that i respected his decision and that I was supporting him 100%, even though I am voting for Lamont.
tbct, please feel free to call Bill yourself (or anyone else can call him for that matter) if you want to check for yourself.
PS He never said to me that he was a non-combatant. Isn't that what Lieberman said?
bluecoat: the Republican Contract with America did not call for term limits as one of its 8 points. The contract did state, however, that there would be a vote within the first 100 days on several bills, one of which was term limits. Articles at the time indicate that there were some areas where there was not universal agreement, term limits being one of them. Rather then promise term limits, the contract promised a vote on the bill. I do not know if they had that vote, and/or if Shays voted for it. Give me more time and I will find the answer.
BTW, the first bill passed under the contract was Shays' bill.
Here is the contract with america:
On the first day of the 104th Congress, the new Republican majority will immediately pass the following major reforms, aimed at restoring the faith and trust of the American people in their government:
FIRST, require all laws that apply to the rest of the country also apply equally to the Congress;
SECOND, select a major, independent auditing firm to conduct a comprehensive audit of Congress for waste, fraud or abuse;
THIRD, cut the number of House committees, and cut committee staff by one-third;
FOURTH, limit the terms of all committee chairs;
FIFTH, ban the casting of proxy votes in committee;
SIXTH, require committee meetings to be open to the public;
SEVENTH, require a three-fifths majority vote to pass a tax increase;
EIGHTH, guarantee an honest accounting of our Federal Budget by implementing zero base-line budgeting.
Thereafter, within the first 100 days of the 104th Congress, we shall bring to the House Floor the following bills, each to be given full and open debate, each to be given a clear and fair vote and each to be immediately available this day for public inspection and scrutiny.
Anyone even know what Nancy Johnson's position on the Iraq war is? She has been ducking that question for quite some time and it is time that she tells her constituents what she thinks. and NOT through a spokesman. I want to hear it from HER!
This election season is just starting and all the congressional challengers have made gains in the polls through simple means; door-to-door, large events and fundraisers. None have spent much money on advertising and still their numbers and name recognition rises. Nancy Johnson is a perfect example, she has spent well over 1 million dollars on negative ads to out her opponent early, Chris Murphy, to no avail. Murphy stands an excellent chance of winning this year.
Nancy Johnson should focus more on her record and the “F” she received from drummajorinstitute.com/congress in their Congress at the Midterm: Their 2005 Middle-Class Record, based directly on her voting record.
bc - Term limits were not one of the eight reforms listed in the Contract with America.
The Republicans did promise, as part of the contract, to have a vote on term limits w/in the first 100 days, because they had criticized the Democrats who were in the majority at the time for blocking a term limit bill from even getting an up or down vote.
I see Mr, Mooney is engaged in age discrimination. Perhaps his would-be consituents in Stratford ought to take note.
Nancy is 71 years old and campaigns like she's 30 years younger. She took Jim Maloney who is 13 years younger and turned him every which way but loose in 2002.
I think a lot of DC pundits are getting spun by the DCCC who wouldn't know the difference between Waterbury, CT and Waterbury VT. No Peace Pops in the Brass City
even James Carville says Murphy is behind....so why is he so likely to win?
All I;ve seen thrown at Nancy is boilerplate Democrat talking points
No one knows Nancy's postion on the Iraq war because she's spending all her time trying to get voters to think of her as a sweet grandmother type. Please! She won't talk issues- in Danbury last month she wouldn't answer a question about her position on immigration. What's up with that?
Anon. 748 said: "She won't talk issues"
Please Anon 748 ... really???
I have know Nancy Johnson for a long time and her problem is not that she doesn't want to talk issues, rather, her problem is that you usually can't get her to stop talking.
Just remember, everyone said Maloney - who was a great door-to-door campaigner and an excellent retail politician - was going to beat her and she cleaned his clock!
>>she has spent well over 1 million dollars on negative ads to out her opponent early, Chris Murphy
Don't confuse "defining the opponent" with "negative".
All Nancy's done is point out facts and one of them is that Chris is a snake.
Where's the people that helped him win his PZC seat, his house seat, his senate seat? Why is it that he has to get all new workers and volunteers for every election?
Simple - he leaves a wake.
Murphy makes Rowland on his worst day look good.
I was against the Clinton impeachment because I didn;t want Gore to run in 2000 as the incumbent. No amount of chads would have beaten him then.
By the way, is Courtney gonna apologize to Simmons about his bogus attacks over Joe Wilson (the Tawana Brawley of DC politics)?
http://www.journalinquirer.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=14883576&BRD=985&PAG=461&dept_id=161556&rfi=6
while we're at it, here's another chance for Diane Farrell to bail out of a previously long held position
http://www.farrellforcongress.com/news/press/6-30-06.htm
My humble predictions:
Shays wins relatively easily as he can most persuasively separate himself from the Bush/House GOP agenda and Farrell has bungled the war issue.
Simmons in a razor thin win. Sub base makes the difference
Murphy in a close race. Of the three incumbents, Johnson will have the toughest time divorcing herself from the DC mess. In addition, due to the 2002 redistricting, she is not well known in a substantial portion of her district. Those people don't know Johnson any better than they know Murphy.
you mean "the substantial part of her district" where she outpolled the sitting incumbent in 2002...which is the same area which is home to the incumbent Governor?
I'm not sure Murphy is all that well known outside Southington. Which is not in the 5th District
>>I'm not sure Murphy is all that well known outside Southington
Just as well for him.
You'd be hard pressed to find 3 active Dems in Southington that would have anything nice to say about him in private.
He doesn't seem too popular with his own party's regulars in Wolcott either.
zepp714
You're probably too young to remember Billy Sol Estes or Robert Vesco; look them up as Murphy's cut from the same bolt of cloth.
Apologies for my absence since my last post. True Gentleman and others have it right. And I think I will exercise a point of personal privilege.
TrueBlue, your loyalty is to a system- my loyalty is to a set of principles first, then party.
I don't accept the primary results as the be-all, end-all in this case. If someone legitimately experienced in Connecticut Democratic circles challenged Lieberman and beat him, I'd accept it. I DO NOT accept the Greenwich millionaire formula for overthrowing a guy who appeals to most of the state- in a state with a broad, unaffil, independent tradition.
If Ned Lamont owned a successful pizza place in North Haven and was married to a school teacher, he would not have won the election. Even though his experiences would be more in line with the Democratic electorate, he wouldn't have the dough to make a splash.
The people of Connecticut- all of them, will ultimately determine whether they feel loyalty to Joe.
TrueBlue, your loyalty was effectively bought and paid-for by Ned and Annie Lamont. How does that feel?
bluecoat - why can't you understand this. Is it right for an American to say, "He's not my President?" Of course not. How stupid is it to say, "Bush is not my President, he's the country's President." I mean, come on. Since 2000, many Bush haters have said "He's your President, not mine." That's just dumb, and it's not true. Even if you hate the man, he is still your President, my President, our President ... and yes President of the United States.
Wow! Get over it.
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