Tuesday, May 02, 2006

Things Are Fine

Really

Today's Quinnipiac Poll, which shows Gov. Rell with a 77% approval rating and massive leads over her Democratic challengers, is actually good news for the DeStefano and Malloy campaigns! Or at least they're telling us it is. Here's what the Malloy campaign had to say:
The Democratic race for governor in Connecticut has significantly tightened, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll released today. Today's poll shows the gap in the race between Mayor Dan Malloy and Mayor John DeStefano has been cut in half, with Malloy at 24% vs. DeStefano at 32%, compared to 19% vs. 38% (respectively) on February 16.
...
Cooney said he is not surprised by Governor Rell's relatively high numbers, noting that, "The race will undoubtedly tighten between Governor Rell and Mayor Malloy when it is a focused head to head competition and they hear Dan Malloy's vision for the future of Connecticut and his plans for getting us there." (Malloy)


Cooney is correct that the race will probably tighten somewhat as soon as the primary is done in August, but he's smart to focus on the narrowing gap between DeStefano and Malloy. That's what Democratic delegates are interested in.

And the DeStefano response:
"The Quinnipiac Poll results show that Gov. Rell’s numbers are slipping and that DeStefano has a sizeable lead over Malloy for the Democratic primary. What’s more, DeStefano has the momentum heading into the Democratic Convention in May. In the last few weeks the DeStefano campaign unveiled a universal health care plan, reached a milestone with its 30th endorsement from a labor organization, and announced that it has a $600,000 fundraising lead over Malloy." (DeStefano)
Why is 30 a "milestone" for labor endorsements? Why not 25? Or 32? And yes, Rell's numbers are, in fact, "slipping," but a fall from 83% approval to 77% approval still isn't good news for Democrats.

It also seems to me that the DeStefano release is a bit curt and defensive, while the Malloy release is calmer and more self-assured. That could be because there was really nothing good for the DeStefano campaign to report, while the Malloy campaign could focus on their gathering momentum.

Beneath their external confidence and bluster, I wonder if either campaign really has any idea of what to do with Gov. Rell, should they end up facing her in November.

Sources

"DeStefano statement on Quinnipiac Poll." Press Release. DeStefano for Connecticut, 2 May, 2006.

"Malloy Campaign Comments on Latest Q-Poll." Press Release. Dan Malloy for Governor. 2 May, 2006.

28 comments:

bluecoat said...

I expect that Malloy will clean her clock in the "what to do next" category when the time comes but I do not know if that will be enough to get him elected. Rowland was clearly lying, with the help of 'I can't Smell the Rell' by the way, last time around but his charm, and Can't Smell's charm, brought him several newspaper nods and 55% of the general election vote.

bluecoat said...

the pollster says Her challengers are relatively unknown: 60 percent don't have an opinion about DeStefano and 81 percent don't know enough about Malloy. so how people would vote for or against Rell is immaterial at this point since Malloy is only just getting started. And contrary to the pundits around here I expect the Governor race to be as big as the Senate race.

disgruntled_republican said...

blucoat-

I assume I am one of the pundits you are speaking of. I have never said it wouldn't tighten up. I fully expect that it will but I think it will too late to change the outcome. Depending on who your party chooses will determine how much it tightens. I think Malloy is a far superior candidate to DeStefano, thus I hope DeStefano wins. People I have talked to (and I have numerous well connected Democrat friends) share my opinion on the candidates. I personally find DeStefano to be boring and in a way arrogant. If he is the nominee, Rell will win big...20 points big. He has no realistic ideas and that is the only way anyone will defeat her.

Malloy is different. He is much more likeable and charismatic and has done a remarkable job in his own city (regardless of how it was done) and can use it as an example. If he is the nominee I think it will be a 10-12 point margin.

As I said in my post under the polls, the longer the Senate battle goes on, the better it is for the Governor.

Wrath of Conn said...

Going on what bluecoat said, another interesting number is that in a heads up with Malloy gets 20%, and right now only 19% of people say they know enough about him. Since Rell has such low negatives (meaning not a lot of those Malloy votes are actually just anti-Rell votes), this leads me to believe that when people get to know the Democrat (and especially Malloy it seems) they will move away from Rell. Obviously it remains to be seen if they can close the gap enough by November.

cgg said...

I expect a shift once we're past the primary. Currently Rell isn't running against anyone and doesn't have to respond to anything from the Destefano or Malloy camps. That won't be true in September. She'll have to take more positions.

What I don't know is if that shift will be enough for a Democratic win in November. I suspect that it won't be, but the optimist in me says that anything can happen

bluecoat said...

dr: I am unaffiliated just to set the record straight and in reality that makes me a more disgruntled Republican than you. I was talking more about the Lamont camp and Lieberman camp feud that seems finally to have died down a little here; and unlike others, I beleive that CT voters can chew gum and walk at the same time if given a reason to. I know Jodi is likeable; I also know that she doesn't understand the real issues facing this state and, therefore, has no plan based on Republican principles to take CT anywhere. Malloy on the other hand is a talented guy that won't just run around responding to press outbreaks like they were fires.

Weicker Liker said...

Tomorrow at 2 PM, Elbert J. Huckaby will be announcing his intention to run for Governor.

From what I understand, he has taken out Primary Petition Pages from the Secretary of the State's office.

CTObserver said...

What the head-to-head numbers tell me is that, at least for the Governor's race, the democratic base is 20%. Both JDS and DM hit that number. That 20% will vote for any D over Rell (or any republican). Someone said after the last poll came out, the one thing you don't get back in a campaign is time. Posters keep saying that things will tighten up as soon as (a) the election year starts (b) the convention happens (c) the primary happens or (d) something happens. We're now down to six months to go, and it better start happening soon, or you can mail it in.

bluecoat said...

If Rell continues to lose 4 points per month on her approval rating it will be 53% come election day. She probably won't lose that much but her rating is sure to continue to decline as people find out she's gracious but empty of ideas and vsion. You don't think the same person you see on TV is the brains behind her spin docs.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Bluecoat:

Your math is every bit on target as your political analysis ... She lost four points in three months.

Notice how I didn't add "dumbass" at the end of that sentence? Just doing my part for civil discourse.

BRubenstein said...

I was one who supported JDS early and in November, had he done what others suggested he would have put Malloy away early ....now he has a real hard and close convention and primary fight.I would be interested in hearing from all of you posters on the reasons for his slide..i can quickly count a few reasons;

1. terrible campaign management
2. lousy political strategy( if any)
3. failure to set up a political commitee who's role is to gather committments.
4. failure to have bold,daring and sweeping issues that captures the fancy of the voters.
5. lousy media work...tell me when the last time JDS was on the front page of the Courant.
6. Failure to devise a coherent multi-platform media strategy..

Do you folks agree with me that the senatorial race and publicity may over shadow any challenge to REll and that both JDS and DM may get scant coverage thus making it much more difficult for either to win?

Dr. Baltar said...

Malloy’s ideas are as vapid as Rell’s; the education plan he announced yesterday offered no way to pay for any of it. . . . a familiar pattern for his proposals. Considering he’s allied himself with Eddie Perez, who threatened to close Hartford’s schools if he didn’t get his way, you have a candidate who has considerably misplaced his priorities on education.

I think that DeStefano’s ‘30’ labor unions is significant for the sole reason that it includes 50% of the AFL-CIO groups. John Olsen said just last week that DeStefano has mathematically eliminated Malloy and the Gov. from AFL-CIO consideration. Last time I checked, that was a pretty important endorsement.

ctkeith said...

I recieved the Dem Convention Scheduale today from state Central.

Friday is Vote for senate at 7 pm

All other offices on Saturday.

I have no idea why it was set up this way ut I'm glad I'll know how both New Have and Stamford delegations voted for Senate before I have to vote for Governor.

disgruntled_republican said...

Brubenstein-

I think all the reasons you listed are right on target. On your last point, I refer you to my response at 12:46 today under GC's Q-Poll post where I said among other things,

"Here's my take and I can't wait to hear the repsonse...
The Governor enjoys such high marks for 2 reasons. First, people genuinely like her. This is her biggest advantage as neither Dem candidate is really a likeable person. Next is that those who pay attention this early are being drawn to the Senate primary, not the gov. Regardless of anyone's beliefs, this will remain to be the trend until after the primary in August and at that point, to be frank, it is too late."

The other problem JDS has is the proposals he has put out are good. The health insurance one was a total joke. It is better to say nothing than to say something dumb and that was dumb with a capital D.

I realize he has to say he has the momentum going into the primary but that couldnt be further from the truth. Malloy has all the momentum but, alas, as ctobserver eluded to, it may just be too late to matter.

disgruntled_republican said...

Meant to say his propasals arent good.

Dr. Baltar said...

Disgruntled. . . .

Malloy has been a smashing success in saying nothing at all so far. If that was how campaigns were won, Dan Malloy and Jodi Rell would be running neck and neck.

Fact is, DeStefano’s the only candidate offering any big ideas or solutions to voters. Health care is a terribly significant issue in this state right now and how it is resolved is going to have serious implications for Connecticut’s future. Dismissing it, as Malloy has done, or ignoring it, as Rell as done, is irresponsible policy and politics. John DeStefano deserves credit for tackling the issue head on.

bluecoat said...

diffanon:the four points per month were from another source but I'll take "dumbass" based on what was first posted on the Q-Poll. The Governor will continue to show she can't smell and her rating will go down. As for my political analysis, I could care less if you or anybody else likes it or agrees with it.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Dr. Baltar:

Agree with you on Malloy, but you're mistaken on health care ... Q poll today says just 3 percent of voters asked "What is most important issue facing Connecticut today" answered "healthcare/costs/ insurance/HMO's"

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Dr. Baltar:

You can be forgiven, however, for being distracted by Number Six.

bluecoat said...

DA said myopically: Q poll today says just 3 percent of voters asked "What is most important issue facing Connecticut today" answered "healthcare/costs/ insurance/HMO's", but he left out that the top two answers were economy and taxes - if CT doesn't fix healthcare it can never fix taxes or the economy.

disgruntled_republican said...

dr baltar

I give him credit for giving thought to the subject. He should have kept on thinking before he put it out...it was horrible policy.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Bluecoat:

Oh, jeez, is that what the problem has been all along? Thanks for solving it all at a stroke.

In that case Johnmentum's plan for $350 million in new business taxes to pay for universal health care will doubtless be welcomed by Connecticut businesses.

Health care, taxes and the economy -- golly, bluecoat, sure glad you cleared that up!

CTObserver said...

JDS actually inadvertently hit on one of the biggest obstacles to health insurance coverage when he walked into the minefield of mandated coverage. Massachusetts is having the same debate, even though the press is pretty much ignoring it. Mass. was able to reduce the penalty for not covering employees to $295 by creating a 'bare bones', catastrophic insurance plan. Once they passed the financing side of it, the Mass. legislature immediately began adding to the coverage, thereby driving the costs through the roof. JDS proposed basically the same sort of idea, a trimmed down (or cut to the bone, depending on your point of view) insurance coverage plan, without the mandates that exist. Once you say everyone has to have a Buick rather than a Hyundai (ignore that some have a Caddy), the costs are not feasible. Unless we can have a rational discussion of what limits to place on health care usage/coverage, the debate will go nowhere.

MikeCT said...

A little-noted finding of the Q poll:

By a 78 - 17 percent margin, including 74 percent of Catholics, voters would support a law requiring all Connecticut hospitals, including Catholic hospitals, to provide emergency contraception to rape victims.

So once again, it appears that it is the Catholic heirarchy and some marginal fundamentalists who are contemptuous of the views of most Catholics and CT residents.

The proposal is probably dead for now, but Sen. Chris Murphy and others will continue to pursue a negotiated resolution in which a third party would provide the sexual assault victim with emergency contraception.

In addition, 69% of CT residents say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.

bluecoat said...

The CT press has ignored Romneycare - and how the Democrats have sabotaged it - but there has been plenty of coverage about in the national press like the New York Times and the WSJ. Some people like DA don't see healthcare effecting their taxes or the economy since I guess for them the problem is immigration or something.

MikeCT said...

The best brief dissection I've heard of Romney care is by Steffie Woolhandler of PNHP as interviewed on WFCR FM (mp3 audio).

TrueBlueCT said...

Embracing Lamont and a "throw the bums out" message will give CT Dems their best chance of winning in November.

Contrary to CW, Lamont is not a liberal. He has real cross-over appeal and would work great next to Malloy or DeStefano, or any of the Big Three.

Lieberman on the other hand is just plain depressing.

turfgrrl said...

There are some issues that can turn this governor's race between now and november. Most have to do with the economic fortunes outside of Connecticut. Should the dollar continue its slide because dollars are being dumped for euros, the inflationary pressures will cause some significant damage to the heavily mortgaged nutmeggers. This coupled with the rise in oil prices, gas prices and electricity prices. We've had a relatively mild winter, so not much pain. A hot summer will increase financial pressures. Not that Rell is comprable to Gray Davis, but his downfall was due to his mismanagement of the California energy crisis. A similar crisis could expose Rell to being exposed as a weak leader.