Monday, May 15, 2006

Pre-Convention Maneuvers

Five days to go, and everyone is fighting for position. Here's what we can expect out of statewide candidates this week.

The Running Mate Shuffle

Gov. Rell is expected to name her running mate late this week - probably Thursday. DeStefano and Malloy are expected to do so earlier. The list of possible running mates for each of the three candidates is pretty extensive, but here are some of the most mentioned possibilities:

For Rell: Mayor Tim Stewart of New Britain, Sen. John McKinney (R-Fairfield), Sen. Tony Guglielmo (R-Stafford Springs), Rep. Ray Kalinowski (R-Durham) and, a long shot, Sen. John Kissel (R-Enfield). Stewart would be an excellent choice, as someone who has had success in a heavily Democratic city.

For DeStefano: Lt. Gov. Kevin Sullivan, Audrey Blondin. Blondin would be the better choice.

For Malloy: Rep. Evelyn Mantilla (D-Hartford), Mayor Patrick Tallarita (D-Enfield), SOTS Susan Bysiewicz. Mantilla would be an intruguing choice, but Bysiewicz, if she's interested, would make for a very strong ticket.

The Expectations Game

The Lieberman campaign is now predicting that Lamont could get as much as "30 percent to 35 percent" of the votes at the convention.
"That's crazy," Lamont's campaign manager, Tom Swan said, saying Lieberman's people were inflating the numbers to raise expectations. "If they raise expectations, when we do it, they can say it's not a big deal." (Nguyen)

In reality, it'll probably be over 15%, but less than 25%. Anything over 20% will be a pretty big victory for Lamont. The Lieberman campaign is trying to raise that bar (and has been for months), but the truth is that any sort of success for Lamont at the convention will be big news.

Who Are You, Again?

For the underticket candidates, it's a matter of getting noticed. Expect the Republican underticket to crawl out from the shadows over the next couple of days. There is still no word on who will be running against Attorney General-For-Life Richard Blumenthal.

There may also be a slight reshuffle if Bysiewicz ends up on one of the gubernatorial tickets.

Should be an interesting week.

Source

Nguyen, Hoa. "Lieberman Calls Primary Likely." Hartford Courant 14 May, 2006.

29 comments:

bluecoat said...

The truth be told, I think this underticket thing is the reason Gallo is ticked off at DiNardo for not scheduling the Donkey convention the week before the Elepahnt one. Or if that is not the reason he is ticked off it should be because the conventions aren't going to be about ideas.

BRubenstein said...

GC...please...LaMont will have a big victory if he breaks 15%... remember he is challenging a former endorsed vice president candidate and a former presidential candidate with 3 terms in the senate verses a man in this race for 2 months with little political experience...if Lamont breaks 15% ..lieberman is in a competitive race...if Lamont breaks 25%...Lieberman is in trouble.

Blondin is pro iraq-war and wouldnt be the favorite of DeStefano's base...neither would Sullivan. Sullivan has an acerbic personality and offends folks and had some bad votes in his career against labor,etc. Blondin isnt a stirring name, was and is very pro war and a huge Lieberman for president supporter.

Malloy's choice of Mantilla would be a mistake...while she is a nice person,she ran a terrible campaign for SOTS and is a lackluster speaker.Furthermore in her 6 terms,name me one piece of legislation that was originated by her? I dont see S.B. joining Malloy for the reasons i mentioned before.

disgruntled_republican said...

You can count Kissel out, its not happening. While he does have a close relationship with Rell, if he jumps, the his seat goes Dem and Rell cannot afford it.

Another name I have heard and would love to see is Bob Genaurio...

disgruntled_republican said...

bluecoat-

A convention about ideas...when's the last time anyone has seen one of those...

Aldon Hynes said...

Last year, the Massachusetts State Democratic Convention was an issues convention and not a candidates convention and was about ideas.

bluecoat said...

That was my point there DG and I know you got it - hahaha. Gallo would rather go in to the convention knowing who he will be running against.

bluecoat said...

Are the Massachusetts Democrats trying to take CT by annexation? That would be a novel approach to fixing I-95 and lowering my taxes.

TSCowperthwait said...

No party should be waiting until convention weekend to unveil a candidate if they actually want to win that election. The only exception to this is the LG position (b/c no one votes for X for Governor because Y is their LG choice).

bluecoat said...

Agreed, but the GOP can't counter what was said or done by the final Donkey candidiates is my point.

Bogina said...

Ring-Dings and Ho-Ho's and Yo-Ho's and Yodels and Devil Dogs and Funny Bones and SKITTLES!

MightyMouse1 said...

GC, Was Slifka simply a rumor not worth short-listing?

RumorHasIt! said...

Heard around the block-- New Haven Town Chair, Susie Voigt, is pressuring people to fall in line behind Lieberman. Also heard, the bulk of the 200 uncommitted delegates are Lamont people, relatively new to the game, and un-bargainable. It all should make for a great weekend.

Wrath of Conn said...

mightymouse,

In my opinion (based on rumors, and my gut), Slifka is almost certainly on a short list and may already be DeStefano's choice. I also have a feeling Blondin doesn't know this yet and might get burned this week.

CTOctaneBlue said...

For DeStefano- Blondin would be a great choice. She would add gender and regional diversity to the ticket. She also did a good job campaigning for SOTS, and would be an extremely hard worker for JDS.

For Malloy- Mantilla would similarly balance the ticket, but she is a poor public speaker. The is no way that SB would bail on SOTS for the LG job- she made that clear when she dropped her gov race for the sure-thing SOTS re-election.

For Rell- Stewart would be a good choice- he did manage to win convincingly in the last New Britain election.

Regarding Lieberman vs. LaMont- I really don't see any way that the Lieberman juggernaut can be stopped (that is, unless Bush makes him Sec. of Defense!).

And are state conventions EVER about ideas? Come on! They are all about names, and the after-parties at the Hartford hotels.

turfgrrl said...

Diane Farrell's Nominating Convention is tonight. From her web site:


You're Invited to attent Diane Farrell's Nominating Convention Monday, May 15th @ 7:30 PM at Westport Town Hall Refreshments will be served at a brief reception starting at 7 PM

TSCowperthwait said...

In the 3rd Congressional District, Joe Vollano was nominated as the Republican candidate for US Congress to face incumbent Rosa DeLauro. Here's his website.

http://www.vollanoforcongress2006.com/

bluecoat said...

Ahhh what the heck; people say AG- for-life (as GC puts it) Blumenthal is risk adverse politically but so is the GOP who doesn't seem to want to do what it takes to take him on.

Micah Heftman said...

Thought you guys and gals would be interested in the campaigns newest blog entry "Delegate Days".

Mayor Malloy visited with delegates from 14 towns in the 2nd Congressional District, talking about the issues important to their families and communities.

Dan's campaign continues to generate momentum going into this weekends Democratic State Convention, and the reception Dan received at each of last Saturday's events were an clear example of that.

Click her to read the newest entry on Dan's blog, talkCT, "Delegate Days"

disgruntled_republican said...

Micah-

How many delegates does Dan have locked in as of now?

Poli101 said...

Rell - As an moderate, I can't see why Rell would go with anyone other than Ray Kalinowski (R-Durham). Ray has the reputation for fairness and honesty. He is a retired Secret Service Agent who after retirement embarked on a career in politics which he has never lost an election. He served as First Selectman of Durham for four years and then was elected to the General Assembly's 100th district which includes heavily Democratic Middletown. The Dems like him, the U's love him, and the R's will work for him like there is no tomorrow. He would bring two major cities (Middletown and New Britain) to Rell. Stewart would seem like the only other logical choice, but his reputation does not match Kalinowski's.

MolotovCocktails said...

DG--
Malloy doesn't have enough, that's what I hear. Neither does DeStefano.

The problem is the Lamont delegates. They aren't playing the game by the traditional rules and many of them have given "soft" commitments that no one can really count on. And they aren't the kind of people who a town chair can "tell" what to do.

It's going to be a very interesting convention. The best in a lifetime!

mod.dem.like.jfk said...

I'm tired of people talking about how the LAMONT delegates are going to sway the convention. If there are people who are delegates soley to support Lamont 1- there aren't many of them and 2- its bad for the town committee and town that they came from.

I can see there being a handfull of people that are so committed to Lamont AND are delegates, but I doubt very seriously the numbers are more than 30.

Am I qualified to make that comment? No, because, I doubt that I, Molotov or anyone else has a finger on the pluse of the feelings of every town committee and every delegate to be able to make such bold statements.

If you are supporting Lamont be proud of the position he is in to take 25% or whatever number you are kick around, but stop making stuff up about how influential it will be on the Governor's race at the convention.

MolotovCocktails said...

mod.dem--
it's more of a novelty i'm remarking on than anything else. (not power-tripping here.) but you tell me who are the uncommitted delegates. please.

a good chunk of the Lamont people aren't the usual suspects. they aren't "players", they aren't used to going to these things, and they aren't for sale. sure some of them have firm opinions about who they want to back for governor. but many of them do not. it doesn't help that both malloy and destefano have come out in support of Bush's favorite democrat.

how many of these people are there? I don't know, but even if it is the mere 30 that you theorize, it could be the margin. so I guess I'll end by quote another blogger who theorizes that the first gub candidate to come out with a strong statement about Lieberman committing to the dem primary and the dem process, gets the endorsement. who has the balls to stand on basic principle?

the funny thing is that the lamont people don't even want to be the deciding vote. nothing is being done to broker it! instead it's just sitting there for whichever politician is smart enough to embrace their own base.

MikeCT said...

The New Haven Independent reports on potential running mates. Apparently only people here think Bysiewicz or Mantilla are remote possibilities.

Genghis Conn said...

All over it.

MikeCT said...

Oh, should have hit that refresh button.

Chris MC said...

Bysiewicz ridiculed the notion at the 5th CD nominating convention tonight. I do not believe she would lie to my face. Whoever posted the rumor deserves to remain anonymous....

I didn't ask Audrey Blondin directly about the LG thing, but I have to say she acts like someone who really is on the bubble. FWIW.

Murphy was impressive with his acceptance speech. The crowd left in a great mood, and the pizza and open bar reception afterward was reasonably well attended.

Not a Lieberman nor Lamont lapel pin or sticker in sight tonight. Talking with people afterwards, there are a few Lamont votes coming from the Fifth, but absolutely no connection whatsoever between the Gubernatorial and the Senatorial.

And, equally clearly, it is ALL about the war, for those who say they are going Lamont at the convention. For those going Lieberman, it's that the war, as bad as it is, doesn't trump the everything else they are fine with Lieberman about. Like I said, it is all about Iraq.

DeStefano people were confident about the outcome of the convention. Malloy people were more cautious, and Malloy was at the pizza and beer thing, and was consistently saying it is a jump ball at this point.

I'll tell you one thing for certain - I am really looking forward to Friday and Saturday.

BRubenstein said...

CHris Mc...good job!!!!!!!!!

Is your impression the same as mine that JDS and DM are playing it very safe now and probably JDS has a slight edge...and DM doesnt want to disturb a situation in which he has momentum and is closing?

Also..do you agree with me that these anti-war Lamont votes are largely immoveable because they feel that this is a vote of principle and conscience?

KerryGuy said...

It would be a serious mistake to chose Mantilla. She offers nothing. Hartford is already going to the D nominee, as is the Hispanic vote. She can't raise money and is not a good speaker. Her time as a legislator was unproductive, as she intitiated no legislation or proposals. She is a gay, hispanic woman from the inner city. Besides that, she offers nothing.