Tuesday, May 23, 2006

Open Forum

They're hitting the ground running.

Lieberman is taking potshots at Lamont's money, while still being evasive about whether or not he'll run as an independent.

Meanwhile, John DeStefano appeared with his running mate to accept the endorsement of the AFL-CIO's executive board yesterday in Hartford. Dan Malloy, meanwhile, will be in West Hartford today.

So has the convention actually changed anything, in regards to the primary? Let's (informally and unscientifically) find out:

Does the Democratic Party's endorsement of Dan Malloy make you more or less likely to vote for him in the upcoming primary?
More likely
Less likely
About the same - I would vote for him anyway
About the same - I wouldn't vote for him
Free polls from Pollhost.com

What else is going on?

77 comments:

Brass Anon said...

It strikes me that the next three weeks will be critical in shaping the campaign. If JDS has been weakened by the convention, that will become apparent over the coming days.

Malloy needs to capitalize on the momentum he gained from the convention and deliver a knockout punch. If he can't knock JDS out, then he needs to do what he can to cripple JDS. Peeling off labor support would be a start.

But if JDS survives and shores up his support then it will be a long-hot summer.

I still think DM can knock off Rell. He really impressed me on Saturday with his will to win. I don't think JDS can beat her.

FrankS said...

The convention isn't over until it's over (August 8th).

Both Malloy and DeStefano need to focus on the failings of state government and identify how they would accomplish specific goals for improvement.

Rell's refusal to face Lisa Moody's embarrassing and contemptable actions, which were over shadowed by all the convention coverage, seems to replay the Rowland-Ellef era.

BRubenstein said...

JDS received the AFL executive board endorsement which should translate into a full AFL endorsement in late June. I have run the numbers before in a prior posting and if JDS gets the full convention endorsement it will be huge and possibly a turning point from a rather bad 6 months.

It remains to be seen if his incompetant staff and lousy old-school political operatives can properly handle the unions and amalgamate them into the race where they will be the most effective.

Suffice it to say, if JDS gets a 2/1 vote in all democratic union households then DM needs to get almsot 60% of the non-union households to win the primary...hard but doable.

Chris MC said...

Bruce -
DeStefano will not win two to one in union households. Say the union vote is about even, what say you then?

TSCowperthwait said...

Frank S -

"Both Malloy and DeStefano need to focus on the failings of state government and identify how they would accomplish specific goals for improvement."

Many of the failings of the state government are the result of the legislature's failure to act on the issues.

Thomas Craven said...

In yesterday's "The Lamont Effect" thread, someone brought up a mailer that Mayor DeStefano sent to delegates with the face of the women who put him "over the top."

Good thing I only throw my trash out once a week - I was able to find it for all of our viewing pleasure.

Without further adieu, please meet Claire Sauer of Lyme, CT -

http://i4.tinypic.com/10ghe9t.jpg

That takes balls.

Genghis Conn said...

Most ironic mailer ever! Great work.

Chris MC said...

tsc -
Fine, you go ahead and change the Legislature. we'll change the Governor.

But I think the Legislature under it's new leadership and with the active involvement of Dannel Malloy has forced several issues to be dealt with this cycle that were overdue. Rell has demonstrated that she reacts rather than leads, and she is interested in sitting on her lead in the polls rather than using her political capital to offer real change in Hartford.

If you can't agree with that statement, you must conclude that the Governor's chair isn't powerful enough to allow the occupant to accomplish anything. Very well, let us have it then.

Chris MC said...

nhf -

Thanks for posting that, but not to worry, as soon as that sucker came in the mail last week I knew it was a keeper.

Malloy was truly Trumanesque in this victory. He might have stood up on the chair on the floor of the convention and waved that brochure the way Truman waved the newspaper that prematurely declared Dewey the victor in that famous photo.

The truth of the matter is that the convention, like some sports contests, wasn't really as close as the score. Without the strong arming and deception of delegates leading up to the convention by the machine politicians from the other side, the vote would have been decisively in favor of Malloy.

The big shots will now try to snatch Malloy's nomination away on August 8, it appears. They'll fail again. We won on the convention floor, and we'll win the batlle on the turf.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Chris MC:

Oh, please. No "real change in Hartford"?

I presume you mean besides campaign finance reform, which Rell had to drag that spiffy new leadership you're so tickled with to, kicking and screaming (and scheming).

I presume you mean besides the transportation bills, including last year's package which was the first actual action on the subject in 20 years of hot air. (Why do you think Amann was so hot to have his own version this year?)

I presume you mean besides the reform of the ethics commission, besides the establishment of a Contracting Standards Board, besides new money for special ed and early childhood ed ... and the list goes on.

And I presume you mean besides the civil unions bill, which never would have happened without Rell.

JDS or DM would bring change to Hartford, I'll give you that. Change for the worse, in my opinion. And we can disagree about that.

But to say there hasn't been any change in Hartford under Rell just doesn't fly.

TSCowperthwait said...

Chris MC,

My point was that I don't think any one candidate (Malloy, DeStefano, or Rell) is strong enough to force the legislature's hand. I made no endorsement or disavoment of the current Governor. It is simply my opinion that the legislture failed to act on certain issues which I think are quite important -- eminent domain, property tax relief (it didn't have to be Gov. Rell's proposal), energy, etc.

If you want the governorship to return to the Dems, than keep doing what you are doing by campaigning hard for it - whether you support Malloy or DeStefano. In the end, the Dems need to re-discover their party unity. The party is fractured on both the state and federal level in Connecticut and until you guys figure that out Gov. Rell will continue to be the choice of most people in this State.

Chris MC said...

TSC & ADANR!

I suspect you two would have a more informative and entertaining exchange on the subject of what has and has not been accomplished in Hartford in the last two years. I maintain that Rell has been nothing more than a hedger and opportunist, and that without the activism of Legislators under the new leadership, which doesn't squelch them and cut deals with the Governor, and the pressure of Dannel Malloy's challenge, nothing of substance would be accomplished.

And TSC, count on it, I and many others have been working hard for several years now, mostly below the radar, and the effects are just beginning to show. When we win the Governor's mansion in November, you'll see the kind of change that putting a genuine leader like Malloy in charge can bring.

bluecoat said...

DeLuca used to defend Rowland the way he is defending Rell and Moody in Probe into elections complaint draws mixed reviews By Keith M. Phaneuf, Journal Inquirer 05/23/2006 This isn't Rowland/Ellef but it is not good government - or consistent with the unwarranted praise by Jodi's sychophants .

BRubenstein said...

Chris...JDS just got the executive board of the AFL to endorse him and i predict will get the full AFL endorsement in June. That will set the stage for Labor's involvement in the race for JDS except for the 6 tiny local's near Stamford who support DM. If history is a guide( and it usually is) the " split" will be around 2/1 for DeStefano....ive laid out the numbers for you in prior postings.

RIght now DM has the big mo..handled him self well at the convention..showed guile,energy and passion and i suspect will lead once again in fundraising..the report will be public in early July. He will concentrate on his strengths...the high performing towns that support him and try to pick up Blondin and the 5th, which i bet is a priority for him.

If there was a 50-50 split of the unions then the one with the best chance to get the victory would be DM.I dont see this happening though..the unions seem to be very invested in JDS's race.

WHat I do see is that JDS has lousy and terrible staff and political operatives with the political IQ of a dish towel, based upon the worst convention performance i have seen in my 30 years in politics.If these folks are allowed to engineer the field and political plan from here on out..then anything is possible.

bluecoat said...

And a "different anonymous" has praised every action that Rell has taken to spend the taxpayer's money - including CFR.. Big deal, that's what Democrats do - spend, spend, spend with no measure of success

FrankS said...

TSC,

It's a two way street, the legislature enacted a new ethics commission, a Contracting Standards Board and more funding for special ed and early childhood without much support from Rell. (How many votes did she bring?)

Campaign finance and more transportation funding, have no impact today. It's been the lack of improvemets to transportation over the last decade that now force greater funding.

Rell's continued reliance on so many Rowland appointees leaves her their baggage and copying ideas from Blumenthal, Maloney and others.

bluecoat said...

to repeat from FrankS:Rell's continued reliance on so many Rowland appointees leaves her their baggage and copying ideas from Blumenthal, Maloney and others., and that's why I could never vote for her - instead of cleaning house she swept stuff under the rug and hid it in the attic.

bluecoat said...

Shays says his view on immigration evolves, toughens because he makes the mistake of listening to those who came out to his community meetings. His stance is not practical.

Chris MC said...

No question about the fact that the leadership of the unions are very invested in JD, that's a fact.

I appreciate you answering the question honestly, albeit with qualifications.

Coupla things though.

Wouldn't you agree that the caliber of the organization is a reflection of the man at the top?

And secondly, might it not be that the better man and organization competing with them are a primary cause of the relatively poor performance of JD and DeStefano for Connecticut?

TSCowperthwait said...

FrankS/ChrisMC,

I find it interesting that you keep coming back to the Rell theme. All I said was that the legislature should have accomplished more than it did and that it missed the opportunity to act on several key issues important to the citizens of this State. It goes beyond party politics (and blame for Rell and/or the Democrats). Did the legislature accomplish some good things this term? YES, the transportation bill, campaign finance reform, etc.

Brass Anon said...

Hey Bluecoat

Based on your comments, do you think that skunk DeLuca is beatable in November?

BRubenstein said...

Chris Mc...

In answer to your 2 questions;

1. yes
2. mostly no ...i think the poor performance of the staff and political operatives have more to do about themselves and their incompetance then what DM and his staff did..or may have done the last 6 months.

bluecoat said...

I don't know what the makeup of DeLuca's District is but my guess is it is heavy GOP. I would like to see him knocked out of his leadership job but I don't think the other GOPers in the Senate want to acknowledge what a liablity he is to their cause - he still thikns Rowland was a good governor..

Chris MC said...

Bruce -
How about this: when your ass is on the line every cycle facing a real opposition, as Malloy's has been throughout his career, would you agree that it probably keeps you sharp, gives you an edge that you lose if you are unassailable in your position and face no real challenges to your policies?

BRubenstein said...

Chris Mc...yes

I agree

look at this blog's internal poll to see how much DM has advanced. I am sure that it is across the board in the state now.
If the election were held today......

bluecoat said...

BR: the last time GC ran a poll, there was more than one question and it was easy to see from the total vote numbers that the Malloy people fudged it as part of their intimidation game. I wouldn't put any stock in this poll based on what I saw last time.

Chris MC said...

tsk, tsk, bluecoat - intimidation game? shame on you.

Anybody who would be intimidated by a poll, especially one of our online confections, would hardly get the attention of serious people like Malloy's.

Hey, is that fear I smell coming off that post?

;-)

Chris MC said...

Bruce -
You have some friends on our side on this one, do you not? People who you've personally supported who are meaningful players supporting Malloy?

BRubenstein said...

Bluecoat...im a JDS supporter...

In order to beat someone you must operate from a basis of reality not spin.

I know that DM has increased his stock alot by taking the endorsement and the way he took it, if you dont think so, tell us all why.DM will be helped in fundraising and in politics and field.

To deny that DM was helped,making this a closer race, is to deny reality.

bluecoat said...

"We know how to win Fairfield County.." is just another one of Malloy's intimidation tactics like loading the polls and the commentary on this blog.

I have no horse in this race.

BRubenstein said...

Chris Mc...yes i do have some friends that have backed DM from the start and continue to work very hard for him.

bluecoat said...

BR: my comment was about the poll just as yours was; not about anything else so I have no answer for you.

TrueBlueCT said...

Chris Mc--

Easy with the spin. You're going over the top when you right crap like this, "How about this: when your ass is on the line every cycle facing a real opposition, as Malloy's has been throughout his career, would you agree that it probably keeps you sharp,...

The fact is Malloy nearly lost last year's mayoral contest. He won Stamford with but 51% of the vote. And this against an unseasoned opponent.

Certainly momentum swung to Malloy this spring, but a four delegate margin at the convention really isn't much to crow on and on about. You all are doing what you accused DeStefano of, pretending to have greater than actual support.

Anyway, DeStefano will also get his second look...

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

Thank you True Blue. Lets stop the spin.

Chris MC said...

bluecoat -

If you mean to imply that I am working for the campaign, that is not the case, as I have said before. Were I to go on staff with a campaign, it would be Malloy's obviously, and given the frequency of my posts here, I would disclose it. I don't know whether or not I would continue posting, but that is a pointless hypothetical anyway.

I never vote in the polls, except for today so I could see what Bruce was talking about. I voted, would vote for him anyway, in case anybody cares.

And "we know how to win Fairfield County" is a perfectly straight assertion, which is based on concrete facts and experience. We (and I am using the term "we" loosely here to include myself) know how to win in the Fifth, too.

And it isn't by lying to Audrey Blondin and her allies and supporters about our intentions.

bluecoat said...

Chill there wonder bot; by "Malloy's people" I don't mean official staffers; and I have to agree with you on Malloy knowing how to win in Fairfield County - he's got Farrell behind him who lost to Chris Shays and he has his own performance in Stamford last fall where he won by another landlide - 51% against an upstart. I can't remember who Norwalk Knopp is backing but he lost out this last time and Fairfield Flatto is backing DeStefano. It all adds up like a single payer system is the answer to cutting the cost of healhcare in half too!!!!

Chris MC said...

Trueblue -

You're the one trying to spin. Fifty-one percent is a victory in any political contest.

Hell, in 2000, you only had to get almost 50% to be President of the United States.

;-)

If you can't recognize the simple truth of what I am saying, you really don't understand much at all though. Further, the reason the Republicans went after Malloy as fiercely as they did and the reason they chose the LG candidate they did was because of the truth of the assertion mentioned: "we know how to win Fairfield County".

Rell would have to do nothing except keep breathing to defeat DeStefano. That is what some of DeStefano's key supporters have even said to me. And it is certainly the accepted wisdom that her poll numbers can't be overcome, right?

Are you arguing that DeStefano would be able to, for example, carry Stamford the way Malloy will?

Genghis Conn said...

(Actually, at least some of the votes in that last gubernatorial poll were inspired by both the Malloy and DeStefano campaigns. I can't say how many, but I got a couple of referrals coming off their internal webs, then from a ton of email... the current poll hasn't been too badly freeped, but there is some evidence of it)

Chris MC said...

"wonder bot"
LOL

bluecoat said...

GC: last time you had about four or five questions - the totlas just didn't add up - were greater than the others - for the one that showed only JDS and DM.

Chris MC said...

Gotta go ....

bluecoat said...

wonder BOY; sorry.

TrueBlueCT said...

Man, Chris Mc, from nearly neutral on Malloy/DeStefano to now being such an ardent supporter... A casual observer might think Malloy promised you something!

Anyway, Malloy did do an awful lot of promising to get to 50% plus two. Now is that kind of aggressiveness a good thing? Well, it could be. But it could also be that Malloy over-promised, and is due for a fall.

Chris MC said...

still LOL
wonder bot is funnier and less demeaning, I'm sticking with that

;-)

I really do have to leave now...

BRubenstein said...

" we know how to win Fairfield County..." is hot air spin..for the last 20 years;

1. the 4th CD has remained the worst democratic performing CD.
2. The last Democratic Congressperson in the 4th CD was...? and how many Dem's were in congress from the 4th Cd in the last 20 years?
3. THe last Dem presidential candidate to win the 4th Cd in the last 20 years was?
4 Occassionally a Senator wins in the 4th CD..

Look up the research and you will agree with me that the quote is and was ALL SPIN

bluecoat said...

Oh why not; in the Presidential race Bush got the job whereas in the Convention all malloy got was the top slot; there wonder boy!!!

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

This whole 'Fighting for the 4th' argument has no real merit. As much as I want to beat Chris Shays in November, historically challengers do worse the second time around - not a good sign for Diane or for Joe Courtney, both who are facing off against very effective congressmen who are well known in their district.

And if you look at any numbers, Republicans in Fairfield county just don't vote for Democrats. They don't vote for Diane Farrell, and they sure as hell won't vote for Dannel Malloy.

So all of Dannel's talk of appealing to Republicans is going to get him nowhere in Fairfield county in the general - and its certainly not going to get him far anywhere else in the state.

bluecoat said...

And Jodi picked Fedele because he has a business background anyway - in the sevice sector BTW.

Queer_As_A_2_dollarbill said...

Attorney Rubenstein, perhaps you should check your records a little more carefully--John Kerry won the 4th in 2004 (which was in the past 20 years, I believe)--you arrogant ass.

Rell is going down said...

BR,

Why do you say that the DeStefano campaign's staff's performance was the "worst convention performance i have seen in my 30 years in politics?" Malloy had the support of Waterbury, Bridgeport, Hartford, Norwalk and Stamford. Those are 5 of the 6 biggest cities in the state, and he had their support well before the primary. He did very well in the small towns, something that people on this very blog said he would have trouble doing. I will not defend the tactic of saying that they had it won before they actually did, which obviously didn't work, but you are going a little over the top. I find it very hard to believe that you are, in fact, a DeStefano supporter. 90% of your posts bash the DeStefano campaign, so what is it about John that you like?

BRubenstein said...

yes..i was aware of it when i posited the question, kerry won by 52-48% .....but the dems lost most of the rest..and i think ( and i am a dem) it would be the toughest CD to win even if DM is the standard bearer.

Wrath of Conn said...

And Jodi picked Fedele because he has a business background anyway - in the sevice sector BTW.

Oh man, this was just too priceless not to respond to. Look I know supporters of both mayors will want to spin, but you're kidding yourself if you think for a second that Rell picking a Stamford resident had nothing to do with Malloy. Business background?? HA

One other thing, I keep hearing this line repeated that Malloy is claiming he will get Republican votes. I'm a supporter of his, and I follow all three campaigns pretty closely, and I have never once heard him say that. What I have heard him say is that he can cut into the unafilliated voters, and it's something I definitely believe to be true. Remember -- a Democrat doesnt have to win the 4th CD to win outright, they just have to lose it by less than a landslide (see: Bill Curry).

Robert Greene said...

Goto www.imperatobrooks.com to chat with West Hartford's own Webster Brooks tonight at 7pm. I got an email from Brooks and he will be on there tonight personally and not just one of his reps.

BRubenstein said...

Dear Rell is going down...

I gave JDS $2500...you can check CFIS at the secretary of state's office...got or assisted in several town chairs and elected officials support and fund raiser help also.

JDS should have blunted the support of those big towns for DM and could have...He had no official political group of experienced operatives to help get support and delegates. His staff were and remain inexperienced and did not reach out to any folks with experience..or if they have..have reached out to the wrong ones.

The main mistake was this;

Knowing that they were in a close convention situation weeks in advance they did not bring in any operatives from the most recent convention deadlocked situation for a seminar or a chat of what to expect and what to prepare for...so they were caught with their pants down. The last similiar situation was the Nappier/Lecce battle in 1998 in which a few of us successfully overcame Lecce ( who won the 1st ballot by 2 votes)( i was one of Nappier's key folks for that)
I would argue that knowing you are coming into a close convention and not seeking out those dem operatives that did this successfully before was an error of hubris and a certain arrogance which cost them dearly.Anyone of the key operatives from that 1998 battle could have armed JDS's folks with enough tactics to overcome DM, had they been called.

BRubenstein said...

Dear Rell is going down:

What I do like about JDS is the sincerity he brings to the table to help working people and the base of the party.His positions which i think are abit more progressive then DM's, and the fact he comes from a city more like where i come from ( Hartford).
I also like the fact that he has placed so much time and energy on obtaining the support of labor and progressives and the rest of the base of the party that he has.

But all that wont stop me offering advise or criticising his operation when i think they are off the tracks.

Rell is going down said...

But you have to admit it was a fight. To say it was the worst convention performance you have seen in your 30 years in politics is still over the top. 2 people decided the entire vote. I know a win is a win, but if 3 more delgates had voted for John, would you still say it was worst convention performance you have seen in your 30 years in politics? I think it is OK to criticize their performance, but you are going a little overboard. Did something happen between you and a staffer to cause this animosity--it seems personal to you. You preface every post by bashing them.

Mr X said...

Malloy will make a great Governor. I was a delegate for DeStefano But after the crappy manuevers he pulled on Blondin at the State Convention I don't think he could get ten votes in Litchfield County.

I feel betrayed and hurt that he promised Blondin the LG Spot and then picked that little weasel from West Hartford Slifka to be his running mate.

West Hartford(New Haven North)has several politicians who are nothing but opportunity grabbers It doesnt hurt to have Sullivan to help them move up the ladder.Their Town Chairman should resign as well and I am sure she too had a hand in getting Scotty too Hotty The Lt Governor's spot on Destefano's team.

Litchfield County gets screwed yet again by these big city politicos Well I know where my vote is going in August Not with DeStefano/Slifka thats for sure and if Malloy doesnt win the primary I may just not vote at all in November

BRubenstein said...

Dear Rell Is Going Down;

Its not personal with me, I just really happen to believe that his staff's and political operatives' blueprint and execution of the convention plan ( assuming there was one in writing) was terrible.

There is no excuse knowing you are in a close convention weeks in advance and not calling in folks for advise that have been there before successfully.

I am not " over the top..or overboard"..the above was a key failing..if you dont agree...such is life ( shrugs)

disgruntled_republican said...

Hi All, I'm baaaack...

I have been ahving internet issues at my house, namely, I have no internet but fear not, the cable guy is coming!!! Was going to do a post on the Republican convention Monday but was swampoed at work but now I'm here...I am going to start on it now and hopefully will finish before 5pm.

ON another note...I was catching up on the posting...

Fedele was clearly chosen for reasons aside from his business background...like being from Stamford perhaps...


And to my friend BRubenstein-
On May 22, 2006 at 2:41 PM you said:
"Mighty Mouse...the custom is to be neutral by party offials and elected officials,in the event of a primary of this magnitude.

The constitutional and congressional folks violated that custom and supported Joementum like bunny rabbitts..I for one will not give them a dime...and im a guy who gave JDS $2500. ( before he came out for Joe)"

You also gave Mr. Courtney a sizeable amount of money, did you not? And that was AFTER he supported Lieberman.

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

I'm thinking that Fedele was chosen for other reasons and the fact he comes from Stamford might be an added bonus. Remember, this guy was an inconsequential State Rep before getting creamed in Stamford (as a Republican! Maybe he was beaten by Republican Killer Dannel Malloy!) for State Senate.

The guys a millionaire, a successful businessman - he was chosen because of his connections to the area and his ability to raise big funds for Rell's campaign. Remember, she's hobbled a bit because she doesn't want to be seen taking the big money from the old Rowland contributors - she doesn't necessarily have her own network and needs a supplement. Its a fundraiser choice, and the fact he's from Stamford is a pleasant consequence for Republicans.

For Dannel, of course, its vindication that Republicans are terrified of him. He finds it remarkable that they just haven't conceded already.

disgruntled_republican said...

"For Dannel, of course, its vindication that Republicans are terrified of him"

Ever wonder if that's what they want you to think? I'm not saying it is but ya never know...

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

For Dannel, of course, its vindication that Republicans are terrified of him. He finds it remarkable that they just haven't conceded already.

DING DING DING DING

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have a new winner and possible all-time champeen for the stupidest thing ever said on this blog.

BRubenstein said...

Dear Disgruntled..welcome back;

I gave Courtney money before he came out for Joe ( check the dates)

Rear_Admiral said...

BR- if it was customary for party leaders to remain neutral, how do you explain Rosa and Larson coming out for DeStefano?

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

Sorry for the sarcasm - just can't help myself lately. The Dannel love-fest is a little frustrating.

And disgruntled - after 6 years of Karl Rove, I've begun to that paranoid about Republican wheelin'&'dealin' - so I had thought of that. Maybe Lisa Moody (spawn of Rove?!) wanted to trick us Dems into rooting for DM because she knows she can clean his clock in November.

BRubenstein said...

Rear Admiral...custom was thrown to the wind when Dianne came out for Dan first...Then JDS got Rosa and Larson to come out.Perhaps it was even JDS who got Rosa first..i dont remember ( shrugs)

disgruntled_republican said...

Oh, what a terrible mess they've made eh BD?

The Republicans never forgot that...

And by they way, there is no such thing as a Democratic candidate for anything. Democratic is the process, Democrat is the person.

bluecoat said...

Fedele who lost in Stamford when he went for the Stste Senate was picked because he is a business CEO who wouldn't upstage Jodi - make no mistake about it as others could have raised money too. And Diane Farrell is no John Kerry; she's turned out to be Howard Dean with a scarf in a skirt .

disgruntled_republican said...

bluecoat

You couldn;t be any more wrong.

The Architect said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
The Architect said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
The Architect said...

Ugh!!! I keep messing up - it's too late to be posting!

Anyways, back to what I was posting:

Fedele was picked because he wouldn't overshadow Rell - she is already soft-spoken, she doesn't need someone like Tim Stewart stealing the limelight everytime he says something. The comment earlier about Fedele's fundraising potential is also an intriguing analysis.

Stewart's existing appeal (already declared CTGOP's "Municipal Rising Star" and he certainly has potential), were he picked for LTG, could have allowed him to position himself for a primary in 4 years - and an interesting primary that would be. Soft-spoken RINO vs. Rowland-style tough guy.

Chris MC said...

It was JD who trumpeted Rosa's endorsement first. If memory serves it was about September 12 or 13 of last year.

The DeLauro endorsement was intended to blow Malloy completely out of the water. The strategy all along has been to freeze Malloy out of the endorsement, convince everyone that DeStefano was the certain victor.

The DeStefano crowd has not deviated a bit from it. I said back around January 10 or 11 in this space, after Malloy had stomped DeStefano in Q4 fundraising:
[...] It's difficult to swallow Shonu's line [that they were focusing on field and not trying to raise money much in Q4]; why not have a big organizing quarter and keep a steady stream of cash?

But the fact is that with the lead they've had in cash coming into Q4, the smart thing to do is to try to secure the convention - nothing would turn the money spigot on like a fait accompli - and they have been very publicly focused on that ever since Malloy restarted last summer. So it isn't BS: you can go back and read what "indian2nighthawk" and the others were posting right here on this blog.
[snip]
The effect of Shonu's statement is this: if DeStefano can make his nomination a foregone conculusion by April 1, she is vindicated, the strategy worked. If the convention is still a toss-up, decision Malloy in Round Q1.

And then we'll have a historic convention. [...]


The strategy is a failure. Malloy has beaten them at every milepost on fundraising and grassroots support, and now the stunning upset at the convention.

Malloy is now officially the frontrunner. And he did it by running, not by making deals. He is beholden to nobody, and when he arrives in the Governor's mansion, he will be free to lead.

DeStefano, even if he carries out his apparent desire to engage us in a battle for the nomination in August and wins the nomination, will have a much bigger problem facing him in the unlikely event he is able to defeat Rell in November: he is going to owe the machine that put him there his political life.

That would not be change, it would be business as usual.

This is why I view this convention as historic, and hope and believe that this is a turning point for the Connecticut Democratic Party.

Rell is going down said...

Chris,

What 'mileposts' are you talking about? DeStefano has raised more than Malloy. A lot more This is a fact. Period. You can point to recent quarters, but the bottom line with fundraising is how much advertising you can purchase. The average voter is not posting on ctlocalpolitics at 11:30 at night. the average voter will find out about the candidates through ads on TV and on the radio. DeStefano will be able to purchase far more advertising than Malloy. And grassroots? The success Malloy has had in fundraising in recent months has been due to lumps of $2,500 contributions. DeStefano has about twice as many contributors (i.e. investors) in his campaign than Malloy. His average contribution is significantly less than Malloys. Again, these are facts. Go to the Sec. of State website and do the math. DeStefano has complete endorsement from labor (please don't come back with the 5 or 6 locals from fairfield county that Malloy has). That is grassroots politics. People that are contributing a few hundred bucks here and there, and union folks that are coming out in droves to support DeStefano. What'machine' are you talking about? BR talks about the bad advice JDS has been getting, and the awful staffwork on his campaign. So who are the folks that make up this 'machine'? Saturday was a nice win, and definitely a step in the right direction for you guys. But I would much rather be leading in the two most important 'mileposts' in a democratic primary: money and labor support.

Chris MC said...

In every quarter that Malloy has been actively running, he has beaten DeStefano. DeStefano had eight months without Malloy to compete with, and during that time, everyone thought Malloy was DOA. Malloy resurrects his campaign, and wins the convention without the support of the heavyweights in the party. We don't disagree about this, we are both talking about labor and all the other people who went to work for JD.

Without the support of the entirety of labor and people like Jim Maloney and Audrey Blondin in the Fifth, JD loses the convention decisively, and there is no primary.

You appear to be missing my point. Malloy won without the support of labor or the party leadership (don't talk to me about Nancy DiNardo and George Jepson). It was a grassroots victory, winning one delegate at a time not by making deals, just by running.

JD and his campaign have pursued the same insider-run strategy that has been losing elections for us for decades. The strategy is to broker a so-called "unity" ticket between competitors. It produced the Curry - Jepson ticket four years ago. They wanted to produce a "unity" ticket this year, but only if they are in charge. Some of us who question the wisdom of this approach voted for Dannel Malloy, and he won.

That is what I mean by a turning point and historic convention. Democracy won out over the powers that be.

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

Who are the "powers that be" that you're always talking about Chris? You rank on the 'party machine politics' of New Haven - you don't think that Malloy has benefited from the same thing in Stamford? In Bridgeport and Waterbury and Hartford? If Malloy loses one delegate from either one of those cities - he loses the convention. So the 'machine party politic' that has created the monster that is John DeStefano benefited your candidate more - just in different cities.

So while DeStefano may have had the slight edge in delegates going into the convention, the fact remains that the Malloy team had a serious edge. Jepsen is a Malloy supporter, and handpicked DiNardo to head up State Central after he left. The Malloy convention team had far more experience, and they only one by two votes. And they needed to get people to switch their votes to win at all. So don't go praising the 'grassroots' effort of Dan Malloy - winning the support of 799 Democrats is going to be a lot easier than winning the support of the 200,000 that vote on August 8th.

Chris MC said...

You rank on the 'party machine politics' of New Haven
I have never said any such thing. I say plenty of stuff you can address, please don't put words in my mouth.

What I have said is that Malloy has won again and again running against Republicans. JD has not faced that challenge. Bruce agreed that this may account for a sharpness to Malloy and his organization that Bruce opines strongly is missing with DeStefano for Connecticut.

And I have never said JD is a monster. Again, don't put words in my mouth, please.

What I am saying is that the power structure of the Democratic party, which Bruce has detailed here again and again, has championed a brokered convention - that is, deal your way to a ticket.

Malloy rejected that approach, which has been a demonstrated failure for a long time, and proceeded to win by appealing directly to the constituents who were voting. That is a victory of democracy, and Malloy led it.