Friday, May 19, 2006

Convention Today

So the Democratic State Convention starts tonight. I'll be doing my best to cover the event. What will probably happen is that I'll post quick updates and happenings tonight and tomorrow, and then work on longer stories to be posted Sunday and Monday.

As for what I think will happen tonight: Lamont should get his 15%. Whether he'll get much more than that is debatable. If he gets over 25%, it'll be pretty shocking. Expect the Lieberman campaign to trumpet the margin of victory, no matter what it is.

Tomorrow: I'd say John DeStefano has the edge. His announcement of a running mate tomorrow will help him keep that edge, and he should win the convention by a respectable, if not overwhelming, margin. DeStefano has been regaining some of the momentum that he had lost over the past six months, in part due to a staff transfusion, a new website and a much more aggressive approach.

For both the Senate and Gubernatorial contests, this is only round one. But it should be fun to watch.

If you're going to be at the convention, stop by and say hello.

27 comments:

disgruntled_republican said...

While much less exciting, I will be at the State Republican Convention. The only real vote should be for Senate and I don't expect it to be a contest although you never know what can happen...

I won't have my computer with me so unless I find a way to update while I'm there, I will do a quick synopsis (My $5 word for today ;-P)of it when I get home and a full post shortly there-after.

blueper said...

25% is impossible and it is silly to even talk about it. Toby Moffett got what, 18-19%, against O'Neill?

The pressure on party regulars is going to be intense and most undecideds and weak supporters of Lamont will go with Joe. For Lamont, getting to 15 is important but not critical, but for Joe, denying the 15 will be considered huge. (if only because of his success in raising expectations.)

Expect him to pull every trick, make every promise (except the big one - not to run as an independent) to keep Ned down.

bluecoat said...

This is old news to many I am sure since it is by William yardley in today's NYT but here it is anywayLieberman's Support for War Leaves Him Embattled on Left

ctkeith said...

Yardley is a joke.He did no new research or interviews to write this article.He's a phone in Journalist who's an embarassment to the NYT if thats even possible anymore after ,Judy,Judy,Judy.

The only one who hasn't figured this out yet is Turfy.

BRubenstein said...

Here are some key things in the democratic convention;

Lamont...
1. Will he get 15% ( if he does its a huge victory for someone with no name recognition in this for only 2 months...if he does better then 25% joe is in trouble since the convention is filled with insiders and officials with a history and knowledge of him, its Jo0e's friendliest forumn.

2, based on the % Lamont gets...what does he instruct his delegates to do regarding JDS and DM? There are several options..among which is to let folks vote according to their conscience... vote " present" and attempt to tie up the convention ( as a payback for whatever deal that didnt happen at his convention or to "steer" %'s of his delegates in accordance with deals made with JDS and DM.

3. Gubernatorial convention;

1.will JDS' selection of LG add or subtract his delegate count and will DM successfully " poach" any delegates from unhappy shortlist folks ( like Blondin, et al)

2. will the hartford delegation either settle or will the credentials committee decide the delegate makeup ( a vote would create much bad blood and acrimony in my view)

3. WIll Lamont's delegates go to JDS or DM in the main, and what " deal" was made to get them.

4. Will the addition of Mary Glassman as the LG choice of DM add or subtract from his delegate count and can JDS "poach" delegates from those on DM's short list that didnt make it ( like Tallarita for instance)

UNKNOWN VARIABLES;

1. who will give the nominating speeches and will it matter?
2. How much bad blood and acrimony is spilled at the democratic convention. Given the complete lovefest the republicans will have with nominating Jody Rell the comparision could be deadly or fatal right off the bat.

3 will the non-endorsed gubernatorial and senate candidates form a unspoken alliance of some sort, due to their ballot positions ( and the same for the endorsed candidates)

ctblogger said...

4. will the hartford delegation get their act together before the convention starts.

Chris MC said...

Lamont supporters have picked up on the expectations game and are trying to downplay the significance of the convention outcome. If the delegates who have said they will support Lamont follow-through I won't be surprised at 25%.

If Lamont doesn't make 15%, he's cooked, I don't care whether he petitions his way on or not. It is the newbies and the occasional participants circulating the petitions, not any of the experienced people, and labor isn't on board, for those of you who view labor support as decisive, so the ground-based strategy will be starved of experienced people.

Having personally implimented a chunk of the Swan state-wide grassroots approach, I can tell you now that it just ain't gonna happen. It takes too many troops, involves too much rejection for most people's stomachs, too much time, too little thanks. If Ned doesn't make it big at the convention, it is time to move on.

There is no discernable "block" of Lamont delegates. They are here, there, and everywhere, and they aren't part of the core group of vocal Lamont supporters. So the talk of "deals" is optimistic at best. Lamont supporters might also begin to consider the impact of attempting to play hardball at the convention on their prospects in the near and intermediate future to enjoy even tacit support from the gubernatorial nominee or challenger.

BRubenstein said...

ctblogger...i already commented on the hartford delegation issue in 3 (2) above...the credentials committee meeting is 3:00 today...should be fun to watch...

ctblogger said...

BR:

Fun to watch to say the least.

tparty said...

ChrisMC:

If Lamont doesn't get 15%, all that proves is that Boss Lieberman was very good at making threats and twisting arms.

There are already some delegates who for their own careers feel they can't vote for Lamont, but won't be showing up tonight rather than be forced to vote for Joe.

And labor isn't on board for Lieberman, either:

"I was the first union leader to endorse Joe Lieberman against Lowell Weicker" in 1988, says Steve Perruccio. Eighteen years later, "I'm very disappointed in his years in the Senate." Perruccio's 7,000-member Connecticut Employees Union Independent hasn't gone so far as to endorse Lieberman's Democratic challenger, upstart Ned Lamont. But CEUI president Perruccio says that whatever his union eventually decides, "it won't be endorsing Joe Lieberman."

Chris MC said...

T-P: On the subject of arm-twisting, after the extended attempts at exactly that displayed in this very space by the most vocal Lieberman haters, I cannot generate much sympathy for that plaint.

Off to the convention I go.....

turfgrrl said...

The big story at the Republican convention will be what pressure Rell will get regarding Moody. While those conversations will be behind the scenes, it will be notable how the audience receives her acceptance speech. If she fails to rally the majority behind her in direction different from the Rowland years, things could turn on her quickly.

On the Democratic side the big story will be the apparent disorganization of the Lamont campaign. The anti-Lieberman people here, won't like this, but the fact is missing the campaign filing was just indicative of the overall lack of execution. Chris Mc said it better.

tparty said...

CMC:

Are you equating the power of one or two bloggers supporting a candidate with zero institutional support to that of a sitting 18-year senator who is fighting for his political life and will pull every lever available to him?

Dave Mooney said...

CT-N will be streaming the Dem convention on the web starting at 6.

tparty said...

David-

Thanks for the link.

Not even a taped recording from Joe tonight, I hear.

Guess he's afraid of getting booed again.

disgruntled_republican said...

turfgrrl-

Rell being pressured to can Moody will be behind the scenes if at all so there really is no big story. If it's behind the scenes...well, you know...if it aint seen, can't be a story now can it

Her speech will be the big story there. It will set the tone for her election campaign and more importantly, the state party. How we republicans receive it is extremely important.

The other potentially big story is the Senate nomination. Potentially meaning if things don't, for some ungodly reason, go the way we think they will go.

TrueBlueCT said...

Off I go, too. It will be interesting to see how many Democrats find their souls tonight and vote against our sell-out Senator.

Did our Democratic Party ever stand for things? Or has it always been about control of the $$$$.

Rosa DeLauro should be ashamed to stand in support of someone with 70% approval ratings among CT Republicans. The sad part is that the Senate seat could have been hers, --if only she had any backbone and real commitment to principle.

ctblogger said...

turfgrrl-

Your so off base with your analysis of the democratic convention that it's almost laughable.

Your still trying to sell a story which is over a week old written by a Willkiam Yarldley, a writer who has been after Lamont from day one and ran a week old story (which was reported in other papers) a day before the convention. The fact that you're still bringing up that old news shows me a lot about you (sad).

Have fun at the Republican convention. Tell Paul Streitz I said hello.

CTColonial said...

TrueBlue,

I am a devoted reader of this blog and often agree with your views. Yet you must not let partisan politics get in the way of everything. Put things in perspective.

Simply because CT Republicans have a high approval rating for Lieberman doesn't mean he is the next Strom Thurmond. Remember, A CT Republican, for the most part, is viewed around the country as a moderate or centrist.

And if anything, you should be ashamed for your remarks of Rep. DeLauro. She is one of the most powerful and respected members of Congress, a woman who stands by her convictions. Look at her voting record, she is as TrueBlue as you can get. Just how TrueBlue are YOU anyway?

bluecoat said...

Lieberman has been selling out the state, and I guess his party, for years so it's nice to hear CT Democrats acknowledge that.

As for the Ned "the cable guy" Lamont from the Greenwich Democractic party here is DTC fails in bid for candidates from the Greenwich Times published today BTW.

I am not thrilled with Schlesinger because from everything I have ssen he is hardly a Republican in the Yankee tradition but it's just good to get this stuff out.

turfgrrl said...

disgruntled_republican,

I'm looking forward to your posts post convention.

ctblogger,

Only time will tell how "off base" my analysis is. Looking forward to hearing your spin on the convention too.

ctblogger said...

Truf:

I'll take a poll at the convention and see how many people are determining their delegate vote based on that old story.

Genghis can verify my results as I'm sure I'll be sitting next to him at the convention.

BTW: Please vote for Streitz. I love watching a car wreck and I want his campaign to continue.

High taxes: blame the immigrants

High gas prices: blame the immigrants

Awful highways: blame the immigrants

Iraw war: blame the immigrants

Can't get a job at McDonalds: blame the immigrants

disgruntled_republican said...

turffgrl:

Are you going to the Republican Convention? Are you a delegate?

ctblogger:

If Streitz gets the nod, I'm moving to Rhode Island (Mass is closer but way to liberal for me)

Have fun all!!!

Wolcottboy said...

I don't think Moody will even get a mention at the Republican Convention. What WILL get mention, will be from true Republicans:

1. Rell's support of Civil Unions, and perhaps gay marriage down the line.

2. Rell's continued deference to AG Blumenthal for state-wide and moral issues.

3. Her support of embryonic stem cell research.

4. Rell's compromising attitude on Plan B contraception. While she did in the beginning state she was against the proposal, she later, in typical Rell fashion, said she would be open to compromise.

5. Her lack of follow-through on many of her state initiatives.

turfgrrl said...

disgruntled_republican,

I think ctblogger was using sarcasm, but I'm not sure. Maybe he really thinks that I'm a delegate to the Republican convention. Maybe he feels that I am attacking him personally for posting about how the Lamont campaign failed to read something carefully and ... oh wait.

ctblogger said...

turf:

Yes, I'm using sarcasm but I would really love for the Republicans to nominate Streitz.

Bring on the white hoods and feel the hate!

D_R:

Remember RI is just as liberal as MA. Look at their Congressman who is in rehab.

turfgrrl said...

ctblogger,

ok then :)

have fun at the convention