Thursday, June 08, 2006

Q-Poll: Convention Win Brings Malloy No Boost

Rell Still Leads by a Wide Margin

Despite a narrow convention victory, Dan Malloy has not gained much ground on front-runner John DeStefano, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

Among likely voters, Malloy trails DeStefano 46%-35%. Among registered Democrats, DeStefano is ahead 37%-28%. Compare the latter number to the May 2nd poll, in which DeStefano led Malloy 32%-24%. DeStefano's lead has actually increased among registered Democrats.

Gov. Rell leads both candidates in potential matchups. Rell would defeat DeStefano 64%-24%, and she would defeat Malloy 65%-22%. The governor's approval rating remains strong at 75%.

Both Democratic candidates still suffer from a lack of name recognition. 59% haven't heard enough about John DeStefano to form an opinion, and 79% haven't heard enough about Dan Malloy, despite his convention win. Maybe they're not focusing on the right issues. Both candidates have been touting complex health care plans, lately, but only 3% of respondants list health care as the most important problem facing Connecticut today. Taxes, economy/jobs and education top the list.

The Malloy campaign seems unconcerned about the poll. This from a (very) recent press release:
We're confident that as more people learn about Dan's unmatched record of creating jobs, lowering crime, providing universal pre-K for every child, and as they hear about his plans to create 100,000 jobs and provide universal health care for Connecticut, Dan will do in the primary what he did at the Democratic Convention: he'll fight hard, and he'll win.(Malloy)

Except, of course, that people actually need to learn about him, first. July should be an interesting month.

Other tidbits from the poll include the fact that Joe Lieberman's favorability rating is hovering at 48%. Only 40% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of him. George W. Bush's approval ratings are down to 24%--which is right smack in the middle of Rowland Territory. Lastly, 44% say that Sen. Dodd would make an "excellent" or a "good" president, while 37% say he'd be a "not so good" or "poor" president.


"Malloy campaign responds to Q-Poll." Press Release. Dan Malloy for Governor. 8 June, 2006.

Poll. Quinnipiac Poll--Connecticut. Conducted by Quinnipiac University May 31-June 1.


A Real Democrat said...

I'm not sure Malloy should have seen a huge bump yet. Are many people paying attention yet? We're getting into prime time as we hit the summer, but remember most voters are not clued into this yet.

Not that the name recognition isnt a problem. But like you said, issues like Jobs and the Economy are what people care about, and Rell's record stinks on those fronts. I still think in the next few months we'll see her come down off that pedastal. She hasnt had to answer for much yet.

Genghis Conn said...

I think there will be a steady erosion of her numbers from August onward, but at this point I'm having trouble believing that they'll fall far enough for her to actually be in any danger.

disgruntled_republican said...

I disagree with both of you. I do feel her numbers will come down some but "steady erosion" is not likely. People have to have a compelling reason to not vote for her and there has not been one nor, in my humble opinion, will there be one.

Another problem is neither of the Democrat candidates are really inspiring candidates...they don;t light that flame in people.

I just don't see it happening.

A Real Democrat said...

It's a valid point Genghis.

The main thing as I see it is that Malloy hasn't spent any dollars on advertising yet that I know of. Right? I think when a Democratic candidate is really talking to people on that scale, that's when I give creedence to numbers like these.

One other thing... you mentioned the name recognition numbers of Malloy/DeStefano. If DeStefano has a 20 pt edge in name recognition, why is his "lead" over Malloy only 11 points? Numbers like that are why this primary is going to be very interesting.

Still a toss-up with those two, but as I have said before I'll still bet on Malloy. Any movement within the poll b/w them was within the margin of error, so really no movement at all.

Rell is going down said...

In my opinion, what this poll really shows is that the party's endorsement means nothing to the regular voter. If it did, Malloy would have seen a boost in his numbers--not just in relationship to DeStefano, but also with recognition. How can he not go up after being on the front page of almost every newspaper in the state after the win? It just seems like the convention was nothing but a big waste of time and money, and for what? The primary is going to come down to advertising and field, bottom line, and the big winner in the heated battle over the party's nomination was Jodi Rell, because she sat back and let her 2 opponents dump tens of thousands of dollars towards a convention which meant nothing.

BRubenstein said...

Disgruntled....i agree with you..unfortuneatly.Rell's numbers will go dowm some...but neither of the candidates have yet to convince the public of a compelling reason to vote her out of office.

The only way to beat her would have been to create a popularity "synapse" which should have started around November. You cannot undo in 3 months all her smart efforts in 2 years unless you committ alot of money and resources to the effort..and nether JDS or DM did so.

BRubenstein said...

A REAL DEMOCRAT...The poll means that as a % more folks like DM over JDS but arent yet prepared to vote for him over JDS...which means thet DM hasn't made a compelling case for his candidacy.

Conventions mean nothing to the regular voter..they care about issues..and how issues effect them personally..and which candidate deals with the issues in a way that positively effects the voter.
Right now JDS has the lead...and if the unions really work hard..he will win.

turfgrrl said...

What these polls show is that the average voter has no idea that there is an election for governor this year, and that the state is muddling along just fine.

Anonymous said...

I think there is a real difference between Rell and JDS but not much of one between Malloy and Rell - maaloy stole a whole lot of financial jobs out of Manhattan on the backs of the state taxpayer - big's that strategy going to help the state overall??? since it's done nothing but hurt it so far...

Anonymous said...

DeStefano brings battle to Malloy's turf from the Stamford advocate today

and for the state government junkies: No takers: State's new direct primary system draws little interest By Keith M. Phaneuf, journal Inquirer 06/07/2006

Anonymous said...

The public sparring match highlighted a tense relationship between Rell, a Republican, and Perez, a Democrat who strongly supports Democrat Dannel P. Malloy's bid to unseat Rell in November.

Perez and Rell agreed to cooperate after Perez invited the press to join him on a walk from city hall to Rell's office at the Capitol. The governor was not in, but Perez met with the governor's staff and both sides said they would put aside their personal differences to fight crime.
Troopers Set For Role On City's Streets June 8, 2006 By DANIEL E. GOREN, Courant Staff Writer

Mr X said...

I am not worried about Malloy at all The only poll that matters is the one on August 8th When we vote in the primary.

Quinnipiac College outta do something else than try to sway the public in to supporting DeStefano/Slifka/Lamont they are so Pro-Republican, Pro-Rowland and now Pro-Jodi Rell.They want Jodi to win again.They are so afraid that Malloy/Glassman is going to win and Joe is going back for a 4th term that they will do and say anything and just how do we know it is a fair poll Who is to say that they dont call all Republicans or All Destefano People.

Polls are a way to get some fodder going on a slow news day in CT.

TSCowperthwait said...

Sgt. Bilko said: "I am not worried about Malloy at all The only poll that matters is the one on August 8th When we vote in the primary."

Actually, I am not worried about Malloy or DeStefano. The only poll that matters is on November 7th and I think we all know how that is going to turn out. Political blogs about Malloy/DeStefano are really just "a way to get some fodder going on a slow news day in CT" for us Republicans.

Rell is going down said...

Wow. Now the spin is that the Q-Poll, one of the most well-respected pollsters in the Northeast, is putting their reputation on the line to help a Governor with the best approval rating in the US get reelected. I thought of a lot of possible ways that the Malloy people would spin these results, but a conspiracy against a candidate trailing the incumbant governor by over 40 points never crossed my mind.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

It's all a conspiracy.

I wasn't going to say anything until Rubenstein called off the FBI, but what the hell.

Quinnipiac, the Republicans, DeStefano, Malloy, SurveyUSA, Genghis, DeanFan84, ctkeith, Ned, Aldon, Rasmussen Reports and Shonu are all in on it.

The whole thing is rigged. The Freemasons, who beat the Trilateral Commission in this year's NCAA tournament bracket competition (and therefore get to pick) selected Jodi and decided that the final tally against the honorary Democrat would be 59-41.

You read it here first, folks. But take it to the bank.

By the way, sentiment was strong for making Kevin Sullivan the honorary Democrat, but the plutocrats who actually run the world realized that no one would believe Kevin Sullivan received 41 percent of the vote -- not even in a state with this many Democrats.

Got to keep it real, y'know?

Rell is going down said...

And the best part is, those Q-pollers timed it perfectly. They knew it was going to be a 'slow news day in CT', and threw together a 20 question poll, just to ensure Malloy doesn't get elected. I bet they know who killed JKF and where Jimmy Hoffa is buried. Wait...didn't the teamsters endorse DeStefano??? How did they think they'd get away with it?

Anonymous said...

Forgetting about the election spin, the quality and design of the Q-Poll has declined steadily in recent years if you look at the work objectively...