Okay, some of you have asked for this. I've been a little busy with a project (I'll fill you in soon, it should be pretty neat and I'll need everyone's help for it).
So. Make some predictions. Here are mine, just off the top of my head:
DeStefano over Malloy in a squeaker in August. Rell over DeStefano by about 10% in November.
Lamont will come within 10% of Lieberman, maybe closer, over the next month. The television ads will get nastier and nastier. I still don't see him leaving the party, unless Lamont starts getting within that 10%. Other than that? I have no idea what will happen.
Democrats will lose a couple of seats in the General Assembly.
There will be no Republicans elected as constitutional officers. Again.
Of course, I could also be wrong. In fact, I probably am. So what do you think is going to happen over the next few months?
13 comments:
Malloy will win the convention.
DeStefano will start getting nasty and turn off voters. Dems will realize that their only chance at beating Jodi is with Dan.
bluecoat- yeah i know. only dems can vote in the primary. that's why i said it.
TSCowperthwait,
if Rell wins by 25+ points, ALL of the GOP Reps. are heading back to Washington.
Poli101 said... "
What General Assembly House and Senate seats will be picked up by the R's?
Senate: 16th & 20th
House: 30th, 81st, 17th
Probably a few others as well.
BRubenstein said... "..there are no coattails in this state ..."
1984
Dan Malloy wins August 8th Primary over John DeStefano I say it will 53% to 47% Joe Lieberman will get 58% to Ned Lamont's 42%.
Onto November:Malloy 51%, Rell 49%
Lieberman 62% Schlesinger 38%
US House
2- Courtney 52% Simmons 48%
4- Farrell 55% Shays 45%
5-Murphy 57% Johnson 43%
Nancy Johnson needs to be retired.We need for The GOP to bring along some new talent i am sure Brian Flaherty and Sean Williams are waiting in the wings for her to retire.But Chris Murphy will be there for a while so they will have to wait a while.
I think 2006 is going to be a lets vote out the incumbents year Because people are so sick of paying these outrageous gas prices.
President Bush should spend some time concentrating on what's going on here than putting all his effort into the Iraq War and immigration control.There are people here in this country who need help and who are struggling to make ends meet.
If he wanted to Bush could call in Exxon-Mobil and all the oil companys and say cut out the price gouging or will tax the daylights out of your Profits maybe then they would finally stand up and take notice.
But since Dubya and Daddy are oilmen this will never happen.
Connecticut pays over 35 cents more than the National Average. Jodi Rell may have the 75% rating now but If the gas prices stay high and she don't cut the gas tax for a while People will grow impatient then lets see where her numbers are then.
We need a new perspective in the 5th District.Nancy Johnson just continue rolling along getting all that Special Interest and PAC money that she gets and basically her in Republican Cohorts(Flaherty,Williams,DeLuca and others)cry the blues and claim the Democrats are running a negative campaign when it is they who have been running the negative ads.
Move on.org is an independent group and if they want to run attack ads there isnt much Chris Murphy can do about it except ask them to stop.
But I am so tired of hearing Brian Flaherty,Sean Williams and Lou DeLuca boohooing to the media about how badly The Democrats are treating Nancy Johnson.
The 5th CD needs someone in congress who will work for all of us not the oil companies,insurance companies and then send all our jobs to India and Overseas.
I know I am sick of paying these high gas prices at the pump and its the same old game The Republicans blame The Democrats and Vice Versa until people get fed up with things The Status Quo prevails.
Other Predictions Susan Bysiewicz wins re-election over Richard Abbate for Secy of The State, Denise Nappier over Linda Roberts for Treasurer,Nancy Wyman defeats Cathy Cook for Comptroller But Cook could run strong especially in SE CT and Dick Blumenthal will defeat Robert Farr I think Farr will have some Central CT support but not much elsewhere.
I am a Democrat But there are some Republicans who are great in Litchfield County that I know Craig Miner,Clark Chapin,Andrew Roraback these guys care about their constituencys and they are not trying to grab the spotlight like Sean Williams constantly does.
The only reason people like Sean Williams get away with this behavior is The Democrats never seem to have an opponent Because it is in everyone's mind they can't compete.
It is beginning to change on the local level.Up until 5 years ago The Town of Washington was Republican Controlled.Then in 2001 we elected Elaine Luckey(2001-03) and now Dick Sears(2003-present)
The Washington GOP Town Committee is disorganized They havent been able to keep a Chairman and they now have a lot of troublemakers and their 1st Selectman Candidate from 2005 refuses to go away.
Not all Republicans are bad There is just this small minority that are giving the Party a bad name.It is the same with Democrats.
But I am saying lets neutralize the bad apples so they dont spoil the rest is all im saying
Litchfield Angelina...
Robert Farr winning AG that is a bit of a stretch.I think The Democratic Constitutional Officers will all get re-elected.
Farr may do well in The West Hartford/Hartford Area I don't see much after that though.
I hope Malloy wins the Primary for Governor or I may have no choice But to support Rell.
The DeStefano Camp and I parted ways over his "poor" LG Choice(Slifka) and If DeStefano wins I can not support him under any circumstances.I defected to Malloy after the Convention and I pray Malloy beats DeStefano.
Malloy wins against DeStefano by about 20%, perhaps slightly more (23%).
Governor's race is close by under 2% either way. Watch the absentees, with Malloy winning.
Republicans pick up 1-2 seats in the Senate, a handful in the House with a few surprises.
AG's race is close (I won't pick a winner- Farr will run a close race, but the Dem. majority in the state prevents me from saying more)
SoS will turn over with Byesiwciz losing big after Abbate attacks her on voting machine selection methods. He doesn't say much about the need to change voting machines, but voters remember her name for trying to scrap a tried-and true method and vote her out.
I'm glad that ACR gave his predictions on specific seats. I may sit down and come up with my own predictions yet. Until then, I thought it might be useful to link ACR's predictions to the Wiki Genghis has set up.
I have taken his predictions and made them links to the specific pages in the Wiki.
Senate: 16th & 20th
House: 30th, 81st , 17th
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