Friday, June 09, 2006

Predictions...

Okay, some of you have asked for this. I've been a little busy with a project (I'll fill you in soon, it should be pretty neat and I'll need everyone's help for it).

So. Make some predictions. Here are mine, just off the top of my head:

DeStefano over Malloy in a squeaker in August. Rell over DeStefano by about 10% in November.

Lamont will come within 10% of Lieberman, maybe closer, over the next month. The television ads will get nastier and nastier. I still don't see him leaving the party, unless Lamont starts getting within that 10%. Other than that? I have no idea what will happen.

Democrats will lose a couple of seats in the General Assembly.

There will be no Republicans elected as constitutional officers. Again.

Of course, I could also be wrong. In fact, I probably am. So what do you think is going to happen over the next few months?

39 comments:

Wrath of Conn said...

In a repeat of what we saw at the convention, Dems go into the primary with DeStefano claiming he has it locked up and he is looking forward to facing Rell (which he probably will be doing). And again, better organization and execution win out, Malloy by a small margin.

Lieberman stays a Dem, and (unfortunate as it may be) beats Lamont by just under 10%

Janet said...

Malloy will win the convention.

DeStefano will start getting nasty and turn off voters. Dems will realize that their only chance at beating Jodi is with Dan.

Chris MC said...

The government in Iraq gets enough traction for the US to suggest it will start drawing down troops, modestly, by Labor Day. Public opinion on the war eases, and Lamont's campaign loses enough steam to keep Lieberman in place on August 8. Ned Lamont becomes a unique factor in Connecticut politics, particularly in the Democratic party.

Meanwhile, Malloy continues to execute his strategy, defeating DeStefano 52 - 48, marking a sea-change in Democratic politics and triggering an all-hands-on-deck in the Rell campaign.

Polls show Malloy at 45% to Rell's 55% by Labor Day. Democrats of all stripes, smelling blood in the water, show up heavily for Malloy, who wins the Governor's chair by a point in November.

BRubenstein said...

Here is my predictions..
1..JDS and DM...If JDS gets the AFL endorsement in late June and if the WORK for him he beats DM handily..if the AFL doesnt endorse JDS..then DM wins...and if the AFL endorses but doesnt work hard..JDS wins in a close vote.See my previous posting for the numbers.

2.JDS vs. Rell...JDS closes the gap to 20% in Sept...and Rell wins by 10-15% in November, unless JDS finally gives us compelling reasons to vote for him.


3DM vs. Rell...he wouldnt do as well against her as JDS would do


4. Lieberman vs. Lamont...Lamont gets some union support and the anti war crowd switch from U to D..Lamont wins 55-45%..


5. Republicans pick up a few House seats and the Dems retain control of the Senate.

6. Congress...The best CD for the Dems to win is the 2nd...kerry had the highest % there of his vote, followed by the 5th CD and then the 4th.It prolly is the most liberal CD as well..and if any Dem has a chance it will be in the 2ND CD.

disgruntled_republican said...

DeStefano will win the primary fairly easily but the race and attacks from Malloy have dug into him deep.

Joe bolts the Dems once Lamont gets within 10% because the 18,000 signatures he needs are due the day after the primary and he doesn't want to risk losing at all.

Rell steamrolls DeStefano by close to 20% and while the D's hold onto the Constitutional offices the AG ans SoS races are much closer than anyone would expect.

All 5 congressmen hold their seats with Simmons being the closest, then Johnson...Shays wins by a respectable number.

Schlesinger, Lieberman and Lamont are all to close to call and there is a series of recounts.

Republicans gain 7 seats in the General Assembly, State Senate boasts a 2 Republican increase with all incumbants holding onto their seats.

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

So Chris MC is back - and is posting his "predictions" that DM will win the primary and be within 10 points of Jodi Rell on August 9th.

Which is, coincedentally, the same exact thing the Malloy staff said in the Courant this morning.

Get an original thought.

Chris MC said...

Heh, Mmmm Jodi Rell. Great minds I guess. I haven't seen the Courant piece yet. LOL.

bluecoat said...

I expect that Shays will beat Farrell in the 4th by a greater margin than he did last time around...and JDS will win the August primary (Malloy already won the convention there Janet) and give Rell a run for her money but not enough to knock her out of office...unless he gets a little more help on articulating the issues confronting and challenging the state from the press...

GMR said...
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Janet said...

bluecoat- yeah i know. only dems can vote in the primary. that's why i said it.

disgruntled_republican said...

Janet- you 111 comment makes absolutely no sense...

Malloy already won the convention therefore he cannot win it again, it has happened...perhaps you meant to say he will win the primary?

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

Predicting he would defeat DeStefano in the primary, Malloy said he expects to trail Rell 55 to 45 percent in September before closing the gap in the final days before the November election.

Great minds, I'm sure.

In all fairness, the Malloy campaign has got to be a little rattled about the Q-poll. Its really not a good sign for them. They desperately needed to win the convention to stay relevant and, to their credit, they did. But no bounce from the convention and DM's less than compelling health care plan (Follow the leader?) are not getting it down.

Rell is going down said...

Janet,

I will guarantee Malloy goes negative before DeStefano does. He needs to, or he doesn't have a shot. If you were leading by 11 points, why would you get nasty? It would be like Rell suddenly going negative. From what I've seen, the candidate that is trailing typically is the first one to attack, and if the convention win didn't give Malloy a boost in the polls, what will?

BRubenstein said...

Prediction..............

After much discussion and read both ACR and Heating and Cooling both decide to be members of CPUSA.

They both inform there friends, Ann Coulter,Sean Hannity and Jerry Falwell who decide to hold a benefit for them for the yearly CPUSA membership dues.$50 a head is charged and headlining the event is prominent "lefties" and social critics David Horowitz and Maureen Malkin.

After the benefit both ACR and Heating and Cooling decide to each take in a gay couple in their homes and to try to convert them to robust leftism by having them read "Das Capital" by Marx and "Revolution" by Lenin, as part of their lease.Both get elected to the Central Committee forcing them to at all public events wear red underwear and armbands so that other secret members could know them and follow their leadership.

Brassett said...

In the primaries, Malloy by a nose over DeStefano. Lieberman, who does not collect signatures for an independent run, is beaten by Lamont in spite of the fact that the polls never show Lamont within 5%.

In the general election, Rell beats Malloy by 5%-10%. Schlesinger drops out of the Senate race in late August claiming health/family issues (landing very, very softly post-election)and the GOP nominates a big name (???) who beats Lamont easily.

Murphy beats Johnson (she's only represented a good deal of the 5th for two years), while the GOP holds the other two Congressional seats.

Mr. Reality said...

I was reading early in the week how that congressional race in Cal was a "bellweather" race. Well that was of course before the Republican won on Tuesday. Now that race apparently is no indication on how well Democrats will do.

The Democrat in that race ran against George Bush's record and Jack Abramoff...neither of whom were on the ballot. That's the same strategy being employed by the three challngers for Congress here in CT.

All 5 Congressional incumbents will win this year. Constitutional officers, does anyone know who they are with the exception of Blumenthal? Who cares!!!

Rell wins easily. Has anyone seen her poll numbers? Look at her negatives...still single digits...after 2 years in office. That's insane!!!

I like how Democrats on one hand say Rell can lose with 6% unfavorable rating and Hillary Clinton can win with a near 50% unfavorable rating. Interesting.

Lieberman gets 6 more years. That's all that matters. No major changes in the state House and Senate.

Poli101 said...

What Gernal Assembly House and Senate seaets will be picked up by the R's?

TSCowperthwait said...

DeStefano over Malloy in the primary. Rell crushes DeStefano by 25-30% but Dems continue to dominate the state undercard.

Lieberman over Lamont by 15-20% (people who are not bloggers realize that Lamont has no viable solutions, only complaints about Lieberman) in the primary. Lieberman by 25-30% over Schlesinger.

Republicans lose the U.S. House of Representatives (including a Simmons loss) but hold onto the Senate.

Republicans gain a few seats (3-5) in the state General Assembly.

neverumind said...

TSCowperthwait,

if Rell wins by 25+ points, ALL of the GOP Reps. are heading back to Washington.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

Poli101 said... "
What General Assembly House and Senate seats will be picked up by the R's?



Senate: 16th & 20th

House: 30th, 81st, 17th

Probably a few others as well.

TSCowperthwait said...

Neverumind,
Why do you say that "if Rell wins by 25+ points, ALL of the GOP Reps. are heading back to Washington."?

Rell has a very low disapproval rating (unlike many of the congressional candidates). Rell's support does not necessarily translate into success for congressional Republicans.

BRubenstein said...

Neverumind..there are no coattails in this state which is the highest educated state in the contry....if Rell does win by 25% your Rep congressional candidates will have to win their contests on their own.

Authentic Connecticut Republican said...

BRubenstein said... "..there are no coattails in this state ..."

1984

Derby Conservative said...

Poli101 said... "
What General Assembly House and Senate seats will be picked up by the R's?

JR Romano is going to nail down a sqeaker in the 104th. Stick a fork in Linda Gentile...she's done!

Mr X said...

Dan Malloy wins August 8th Primary over John DeStefano I say it will 53% to 47% Joe Lieberman will get 58% to Ned Lamont's 42%.

Onto November:Malloy 51%, Rell 49%
Lieberman 62% Schlesinger 38%

US House
2- Courtney 52% Simmons 48%
4- Farrell 55% Shays 45%
5-Murphy 57% Johnson 43%

Nancy Johnson needs to be retired.We need for The GOP to bring along some new talent i am sure Brian Flaherty and Sean Williams are waiting in the wings for her to retire.But Chris Murphy will be there for a while so they will have to wait a while.

I think 2006 is going to be a lets vote out the incumbents year Because people are so sick of paying these outrageous gas prices.

President Bush should spend some time concentrating on what's going on here than putting all his effort into the Iraq War and immigration control.There are people here in this country who need help and who are struggling to make ends meet.

If he wanted to Bush could call in Exxon-Mobil and all the oil companys and say cut out the price gouging or will tax the daylights out of your Profits maybe then they would finally stand up and take notice.

But since Dubya and Daddy are oilmen this will never happen.

Connecticut pays over 35 cents more than the National Average. Jodi Rell may have the 75% rating now but If the gas prices stay high and she don't cut the gas tax for a while People will grow impatient then lets see where her numbers are then.

TSCowperthwait said...

Sgt. Bilko obviously has been imbibing at the gin mill this afternoon. Those predictions are quite humorous.

If Chris Murphy wins, does he get to go to DC or does the head of MoveOn.org go instead?

Mr X said...

We need a new perspective in the 5th District.Nancy Johnson just continue rolling along getting all that Special Interest and PAC money that she gets and basically her in Republican Cohorts(Flaherty,Williams,DeLuca and others)cry the blues and claim the Democrats are running a negative campaign when it is they who have been running the negative ads.

Move on.org is an independent group and if they want to run attack ads there isnt much Chris Murphy can do about it except ask them to stop.

But I am so tired of hearing Brian Flaherty,Sean Williams and Lou DeLuca boohooing to the media about how badly The Democrats are treating Nancy Johnson.

The 5th CD needs someone in congress who will work for all of us not the oil companies,insurance companies and then send all our jobs to India and Overseas.

I know I am sick of paying these high gas prices at the pump and its the same old game The Republicans blame The Democrats and Vice Versa until people get fed up with things The Status Quo prevails.

Mr X said...

Other Predictions Susan Bysiewicz wins re-election over Richard Abbate for Secy of The State, Denise Nappier over Linda Roberts for Treasurer,Nancy Wyman defeats Cathy Cook for Comptroller But Cook could run strong especially in SE CT and Dick Blumenthal will defeat Robert Farr I think Farr will have some Central CT support but not much elsewhere.

Mmmm Jodi Rell said...

Sean Williams is a hack. I was at UConn when he used to write for the Daily Campus and if he thinks he's going to get elected to Congress with some of the stancse he took every week on the editorial page - he's clueless. He's an extremist.

Mr X said...

I am a Democrat But there are some Republicans who are great in Litchfield County that I know Craig Miner,Clark Chapin,Andrew Roraback these guys care about their constituencys and they are not trying to grab the spotlight like Sean Williams constantly does.

The only reason people like Sean Williams get away with this behavior is The Democrats never seem to have an opponent Because it is in everyone's mind they can't compete.

It is beginning to change on the local level.Up until 5 years ago The Town of Washington was Republican Controlled.Then in 2001 we elected Elaine Luckey(2001-03) and now Dick Sears(2003-present)

The Washington GOP Town Committee is disorganized They havent been able to keep a Chairman and they now have a lot of troublemakers and their 1st Selectman Candidate from 2005 refuses to go away.

Not all Republicans are bad There is just this small minority that are giving the Party a bad name.It is the same with Democrats.

But I am saying lets neutralize the bad apples so they dont spoil the rest is all im saying

LitchfieldAngelina said...
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BRubenstein said...

Angelina...keep drinking and smoking grass...

LitchfieldAngelina said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Mr X said...

Litchfield Angelina...

Robert Farr winning AG that is a bit of a stretch.I think The Democratic Constitutional Officers will all get re-elected.

Farr may do well in The West Hartford/Hartford Area I don't see much after that though.

I hope Malloy wins the Primary for Governor or I may have no choice But to support Rell.

The DeStefano Camp and I parted ways over his "poor" LG Choice(Slifka) and If DeStefano wins I can not support him under any circumstances.I defected to Malloy after the Convention and I pray Malloy beats DeStefano.

AnonAndOnAndOn said...

Sgt. Bilko:

I'm not going to paint as rosy a picture for the GOP as you have for the Dems, but here goes:

Rell wins by the margins that Bruce Rubenstein set out, although she beats either John or Dan by 10-15.

Dem Gov Primary: We won't know til July ad wars and one of the two sparks some kind of momentum. AFL can be a big boost in an August primary. And with two mayors... WATCH THOSE ABSENTEES!

Lieberman holds on by 8 points over LaMont. Schlesinger starts posting on Moster.com to beat the rush ahead of the entire GOP underticket, who will also all lose. (Farr, however, will be the first to poke a hole through Blumer's veil of piety.)

4th CD: Farrell by a nose
2nd CD: Simmons by 3 pts.
5th CD: Johnson by 8 pts.

(Note to Moveon Murphy. You never should have allowed MoveOn to get in so heavy so early. Whether independent or not, it looks like they own you OR that the Dems think they need to do your fighting for you.)

Not any appreciable change in the state House or Senate. Couple of deck chairs change on either side. Williams (Don) is the guy to watch, as he really has a chance to solidify and grow his power base.

And HEY.... did anybody see the letter in the Courant today from Harry Reid's press guy!?!?

Right Reverend Republican said...

Malloy wins against DeStefano by about 20%, perhaps slightly more (23%).

Governor's race is close by under 2% either way. Watch the absentees, with Malloy winning.

Republicans pick up 1-2 seats in the Senate, a handful in the House with a few surprises.

AG's race is close (I won't pick a winner- Farr will run a close race, but the Dem. majority in the state prevents me from saying more)

SoS will turn over with Byesiwciz losing big after Abbate attacks her on voting machine selection methods. He doesn't say much about the need to change voting machines, but voters remember her name for trying to scrap a tried-and true method and vote her out.

Aldon Hynes said...

I'm glad that ACR gave his predictions on specific seats. I may sit down and come up with my own predictions yet. Until then, I thought it might be useful to link ACR's predictions to the Wiki Genghis has set up.

I have taken his predictions and made them links to the specific pages in the Wiki.

Senate: 16th & 20th

House: 30th, 81st , 17th

union prez said...

Authentic Connecticut Republican:

What in world are you smoking?

To list the 2 Southington seats in House as ones the R's will pick up!

First and foremost the Southington R's cant even win a council election and the Berlin R's are to busy choking eachother to run a campaign.

But more importantly you picked Aresimowicz and Zalaski two most prominent names in the CT labor movement. They both have been working on elections for the past 15 years and by the results of their last contested election they know how to win, Zeke beating Southintons most prominent R and Aresimowicz taking a seat the R's held for 22 years. Give me a break and stop showing that you live in Southington and are on the Town Committee so you try to give your very weak candidates credibilty!

Neither have chance in hell of winning in November!

A Proud Union Member!

joshchamber said...

Very interested in these predictions and he thoughtfulness behind some of them.

I am hearing some very ominous signals for St. Joe - moderate and conservative DEMS who are lining up to stick it to him - claiming they are tired of his sanctimonious BS. If he loses them and the growing anti-war and legions of anti-Busg DEMS are tired of him then who will stick with him in a mid-summer primary?

Predictions:
Lamont 52 St. Joe 48
Mayor John 54 Mayor Dan 46 (unions)

November:

St. Joe 42
Lamont 36
Schlesinger 22

Rell 54 Mayor John 46
Shays edged by Farrell 52-48
Johnson 53 Murphy 47
Courtney Simmons - too close

Dems keep Senate 23-13
Dems keep House 98-53

Subject to revision