Wednesday, June 14, 2006

Joe Independent

The Prospect of an Independent Lieberman Becoming More Likely

Political Wire has a story up today that Lieberman "allies" are planning for an independent Lieberman run. This could mean a any number of things from a bunch of guys thinking up a contingency plan to Lieberman supporters, friends and advisors actually laying the groundwork for an independent Joe.

Even more interestingly, one report in the previous post (hat tip to CTObserver) suggests that Lamont may be as little as six points behind Lieberman (40%-46%), according to a Rasmussen poll. (Update: That poll number now confirmed. Lamont is actually within the margin of error.)

So maybe it'll happen after all. And if it does, what then?

First, despite the polls, there's no real guarantee that Lieberman will actually win in November if he's an independent. He'll have to battle Lamont for Democrats and independents (who seem to be trending towards the Democrats this year), and conservatives will have their own candidate in Alan Schlesinger. Lieberman, as the primary race is starting to show, can't necessarily count on Democratic votes to carry him. If Democrats see him actually leave their party, it could turn a significant number who might have voted his way against him. A Lamont victory, or even a Schlesinger victory, over an independent Lieberman, is possible. Niether are likely, mind you, but the possibility is there.

But what if Lieberman does win? Polls suggest he will. Then what?

Connecticut will essentially have a Jim Jeffords. If Lieberman leaves the party, will he continue to caucus with Democrats? Or will he cross the aisle? What if it's up to Lieberman to decide which way the Senate will go for the next two years? Jeffords swung the Senate. Lieberman could do it, too. If that's the case, he'll be in a great position, and will probably be one of the most powerful and influential men in Washington. For a while.

If not, he'll be a man without a party, which means he'll either be the kind of guy who can easily go back and forth between the camps, or someone nobody will ever talk to.

It will almost certainly mean that this will be his last Senate term.

Now that an independent Lieberman is seeming more and more likely, these sorts of questions are going to come up. If the Rasmussen Poll is right, and Lamont is within easy striking distance, we can expect to start asking them to him very soon.

92 comments:

bluecoat said...

He should answer the question right up front if he switches: If he wins as an Independent who will he caucus with???

disgruntled_republican said...

bluecoat-

Couldn't disagree more. It is really irrelevant...

Gio said...

The kooks are in control of the Democrat party, and there will be a backlash against them. If Joe runs as an Indepndent, come the general election he will win among Republicans, Independents, and scorned middle of the road Democrats. The question remains--why are the Dems sacrificing Joe?
A Senator with a sterling liberal voting record.

Joe has the balls to stand up and champion the Iraq war. A war which will transform the Middle East. Joe is a good American, a patriotic American who had the temerity to support our President and our Troops. And for that the kooks are Storming the Gate.

BRubenstein said...

First of all...

I posted numbers that indicate that the primary is neck and neck.

If Joementum wants to run as a "I" and bolts the Party...he will harm our congressional candidates to a large degree...but then its all about him isnt it.?

Now..Joementum will need 7500 signatures to qualify for the ballot...he will need to take out petitions and have them turned in the day after the Dem primary..the petitions must be circulated in July i am sure, in order to meet the threshold. Most, but not all of his Dem support will dry up and will refuse to be involved with the petition process...meaning he will need to buy and train a field staff for the petition process very soon.

I suspect that Joementum is gauging his support by way of polling every day and will especially be gauging what the unions do at their convention at the end of June.

The AFT endorsement for Lamont is a huge win for him and portends alot of union support for Lamont...If Joementum loses more of the huge unions...look to him to bolt somwhere between the AFL convention and July 15th.

BRubenstein said...

Dear GIO...by kooks do you mean the 70% of the folks in this country that believe the Iraq War is wrong and we should bring our troops home now?

Would the kooks also include the Party apparatus and workers like perhaps 80% of the party?

Do us a favor..go with Joe and go in Peace and be a " I"

Weicker Liker said...

The Petitioners must be CT Voters.

Out of staters must register in CT.
Would be interesting how that stacks up.

bluecoat said...

Here we go agin; now we have somebody named Gio with the nonsnese that if you criticze Bush's handling of the war you don't support the troops....the 77 US Senators - absent Joe but including John Warner - who late last fall voted a non-binding resolution for significant change in direction in Iraq this year all aren't patrioits; in fact Bush himself is no longer a good patriot because when he was in Iraq the other day he told the Iraqis to stand up for their own defense - he called for a change in direction!!!!!!!!!!

The Architect said...

Rubenstein puts on a fine show of demonstrating how the Republican Party is truly the "big tent" party and the Democrats are the true intolerants.

10 years ago it was abortion - pro-life and you were shunned by the party faithful. Now it's Iraq.

bluecoat said...

The Architect;s statement is pure intolerance but he can't see it...

disgruntled_republican said...

Gio -

In a three way race Joe does not win the republican side. If they see an opportunity for a republican senator they will junmp at it.

BR -

You say "our congressional candidates to a large degree"...your candidates aren't mine and with some I question why they are even running. Call them what they are, the democrat candidates.
----------------
To all of this there is a flip side. If it is a 3 way race, the extreme left will be drawn to the polls which could in fact help democrats. I personally think that if Jow wins the dem primary a lot of the extreme left will stay home.

bluecoat said...

Is this the place to point out that Senate Minority leader Harry Reid - a Democrat - is opposed to abortion???

Chris MC said...

If Joe doesn't see the Democratic primary through, it will be impossible to support him over Lamont. If he loses to Lamont in the primary, Lamont as the victor deserves the party members' full support in the General.

If he were to form, as I once called it tongue in cheek, "A Joe Party", it would certainly be divisive to the Democratic party. Lieberman supporters need to put their time and efforts into getting a new campaign strategy, new ad people, new campaign manager. This is not a "low information voter" situation.

The Lieberman campaign is a disgrace thus far. If they don't get their act together, Joe may be out due to political incompetance more than his position on the war.
(cross posted on )

Mr X said...

I believe Joe Lieberman will win whether he is with the Democrats or If he runs as an Independent.

I am still not sold on Ned Lamont being a US Senator I think he is just a one issue guy and If he is the Democratic Nominee I will not support him.

This is the 1st time in my life I would consider voting something other than Democrat in 25 years.

BRubenstein said...

SGt Bilko..Lamont is not a 1 issue guy..go to his webpage and check out ALL his positions of a wide variety of issues...and any questions on any of the issues you care about can be answered by a Lamont staffer by simply calling their head-quarters.

Genghis Conn said...

Confirmed by Political Wire (which is outstandingly useful today). Six points. Actually within the seven point margin of error.

Small sample size, though, so it may not be entirely accurate.

BRubenstein said...

Disgruntled...i note your comment..duly noted..i will and should have said " our Democratic congressional candidates"

Architect...you are a Republican anyway...so why care about how wide the tent is in my party...tend your own party business.

BRubenstein said...

GC..i noted the race as " nip and tuck" a few days ago...with the numbers..

however the poll on Political Wire doesnt poll for " vote intensity"...you need to make allowance for that in their numbers numbers..and the sample size is small..

Chris MC said...

Yeah, not to try to throw water on that, but a seven point margin of error means the poll is pretty useless.

That said, I bet that Lieberman's real margin is about 10% (just a gut guess, but I was pretty close on the convention vote, if I may indulge myself in a bit of Bruceness). If true, heads should be rolling in the Lieberman campaign.

Maybe they should look at Occhiogrosso's results with Malloy and expand GSG's responsibilities before it is too late.

Gio said...

In a 3 way race Republicans will not support a candidate with no chance to win (aka Schlesinger).

Republicans will support a sitting Senator who has steadfastly supported America's fight against Islamofascism. Couple that with scorned middle of the road Democrats frightened by the nutjobs...and Joemomentum trumps Markos.

disgruntled_republican said...

Gio-

You clearly know absolutely nothing about politics. Are you a Lieberman staffer?

(Laughin my a** off)

CTObserver said...

What, GC (1:23), you doubted me!? ;))

Genghis Conn said...

Blog nuclear testing ground?

Chris, you may be right about 10%. Lieberman has just been tanking over the past two weeks--ever since the convention, really.

Staff shakeup is the easiest way to simulate change. He'll probably do that.

Genghis Conn said...

Never, CTObserver!

Chris MC said...

LOL - did you mean sTimulate change GC?

BRubenstein said...

GIO...stop smoking dope

Disgruntled will probably agree with what i am about to say...

The Republicans as a general rule vote in a higher% then us Dems and AND are more " homogenuos" and that means they tend to stick together as a higher % then us Democrats....

That being said..i ran the numbers in a prior post..look them up and stop spinning with no facts and evidence.

Mr X said...

I like the way certain people on this blog Immediately think someone is a"Lieberman Staffer" Because their opinion isnt the same as theirs.

There are people here who like to participate in intimidation If you are not of the same opinion and I am turned off by the rowdyness of some in The Lamont Camp.

I say we have differences of opinion about Joe or Ned lets talk about them rather than sit here and name call and intimidate people.But lets participate in a discussion.

It is this kind of behavior that turns me off to ever supporting Lamont for this or any other office He decides to run for.

disgruntled_republican said...

BR-

You hit the nail on the head.

Genghis Conn said...

Nope.

BRubenstein said...

CHris Chris Chris...the poll isnt useless...and frankly can be used for media,finance,political support and a wide variety of other purposes..

Your gut is wrong here..the "intangibles" are with Lamont...like voter " intensity"...which means Lamont's 40% will actualy vote for him in a greater % then Joe's 46%..

I dont think Joementum should fire anyone like Sean or Roy....let Joe keep the folks that have brought him to the edge of the cliff..LMAO

BRubenstein said...

GC...i gave out the numbers days ago ...and the Poll backs me up 100%...relax..buy a pizza and a coke..we are all in for an interesting few months

Mr X said...

I have a question to put to The Lamont Supporters If Joe wins the Primary and Ned Lamont doesn't run as Independent Would you support Lieberman or vote for Schlesinger??

Is Ned Lamont going to run as Independent If he is unsuccessful??

Just curious to hear everyone's thoughts

Chris MC said...

[blather]...the poll isnt useless...[more blather]
Wow, Bruce, what a gem. The rest of us are dwarves in the presence of a giant.

My point of course was that it isn't the kind of poll that gives a highly reliable picture of the race. It is useful for exactly what it is being used for - campaigning.

relax..buy a pizza and a coke..we are all in for an interesting few months
Well geez, thanks for taking care of everything for us there, big shot. Since all there is to be said has now been said (by you, Bruce bless us all), you can run along and leave the rest of us to our sandbox. We're not worthy.

And BTW, I've racked my memory and cannot for the life of me figure out what you are referring to with Roy. You appear to be entirely full of sh*t about his record.

disgruntled_republican said...

Sgt Bilko-

I certainly assume you are referring to me in this instance. First, I am voting for and fully suport Schlesinger. He is going to make a fine Senator so saying I am using intimidation just doesn't work here.

Next, you obviously haven't caught onto my sense of humor. While I do think that gio's comments were, frankly, idiotic and off base and I do think he has no idea what he is talking about the poke at him being a staffer was in reference to an earlier post that critized (and jusifiably so) Lieberman's campaign staff for their innateness - and that's putting it lightly.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Chris MC says of BR: You appear to be entirely full of sh*t about his record.

Chris, it clearly takes one high-powered "operative" (BR) to spot another extraordinary talent (Roy O).

As you note, we're simply chip"monks" next to Bruce Almighty.

The Architect said...

Bluecoat, the truth hurts.

Mr X said...

Disgruntled Rep.... No that was not aimed at you. I think that Schlesinger is a great candidate and If The Democrats don't pull it together once the primary is over We may see Schlesinger get really hot especially if the side that loses the primary falls in behind him and We could see a Republican Senator for the 1st time since 1988.I appreciate your comments


Chris MC... I like the way you stand up to Bruce.Always enjoy reading your thoughts and opinions on this blog.

Chris MC said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Chris MC said...

I just wonder how much damage to Roy's professional prospects allegations made in a public forum by a high powered political operative like Bruce Rubenstein might arguably do.

Hard to put an upper limit on the loss of business Roy and his company might suffer because of untruths knowingly spread by a top flight professional like his Bruceness. I say knowingly because there appears to be nothing Bruce doesn't know, and know better than the rest of us might even begin to imagine.

Mr X said...

DR... The Intimidation remark was aimed at Bruce If you dont agree with Bruce you cant express your opinion on here.He has accused me of being a staffer for Lieberman and a spindoctor. I am just a Litchfield County resident I work all night and come here to spend part of my day talking and reading what my fellow bloggers are saying.

Despite Bruce's scare and intimidation tactics which aren't working I really look forward to the dialogue from all sides of the spectrum that is really what this is all about.

BRubenstein said...

Chris CHris Chris...why do you insist on getting " personal" with me..I never attack you personally..only politically ..as i will now...

You said iwas full of sh$t about Roy O's record...

I know for a fact that he was a senior operative in 2 losing Bill Curry for Governor races and a losing Congressional race ( Sulivan v. Simmons)..that looks like 0 for 3 to me...i dont know about any other races of his involvement..

So now ny friend...i expect an apology from you.

Genghis Conn said...

If Lieberman actually had half the people who have been accused of being staffers as actual staffers, he wouldn't be in this mess.

turfgrrl said...

Another day of fruitless speculation about Lieberman when right now municipalities are gearing up to send their mid-year property tax bills. Any other primaries going on in August that should be discussed. Norwalk has one over the 140th state rep seat.

turfgrrl said...

Looks like brubenstein was our mystery roy-o basher in the days of anonymous posters.

Genghis Conn said...

A list of primaries is here:

http://ctelection2006.pbwiki.com/primary

It is incomplete. You can add to it! In fact, please do. The password is election.

Mr X said...

My thoughts are this Senate Race is going to sizzle in July and in the 1st week of August leading up to the primary.

Yes I am for Lieberman But I think Lamont will likely close in and the polls are beginning to show that.

I think were talking the margin of victory around 2-3% for the winner.

Weicker Liker said...

Disgruntled Republican and others....
I'm not impressed from what I have heard and seen from Alan Schlesinger's campaign so far.

I've seen or heard him speak four times. In person, on television twice, and on WTIC Radio.

Its a huge stretch that Connecticut voters are going to support him in droves if it comes down to a three person race.

First, I don't think he demonstated an ability to connect with voters. From his comments and interviews, he struck me to be all about numbers, and thats akin to his background in finance.

Reminds me of a former Republican First Selectman from my hometown that was very bright, but had ZERO people skills.

Sure, I'll bet Schlesinger was great before Disgruntled's Town Committee in Enfield. Talked about his conservative beliefs, ect.

Schlesinger is alot like Ned Lamont. One track, one issue, nothing really progressive or appealing about him. He is one step above Jack Orchulli, but not that far up.

I thought his speech at the State Convention in New Britain was unappealing and flat. Nothing that was distinguished. It reeked opportunism.

Second, I've been to his website, every day since he announced.

His website has given people no compelling reason to revisit it.

Material on it is poorly presented.

Nothing new from Alan since he announced his nomination.

Nothing to say how active he has been campaigning for the office.

Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Shows a campaign with no direction or vision.

Thats a turnoff to potential donors.

Third, in regards to the mystery candidate that I have alluded to, I still think Chairman Gallo's remarks in the "Roll Call" roundtable discussion - before the State Convention - were telling.

Kevin O'Connor, another opportunist, have us clues to his interest in the Senate seat. He begged Jodi Rell not to select him as Lieutenant Governor. Thats because he wants to be US Senator.

And rememberm the State GOP has twisted Schlesinger's arm before: In 1998 he was pursuaded not to Primary Mark Neilsen in the 5th CD. The State GOP gave him an unpaid Legal Advisory post.

Look for the parties involved to up the ante: Maybe Alan would like to be a Superior Court Judge or be Commissioner of Education, Commissioner of Motor Vehicles, ect.

Fourth, notice how shabbily the recent State Convention ended.

The State Party treated Schlesinger and the Senate race as an afterthought: Had his nomination last, after Rell.

How anticlimatic!!!!

70% of the delegates walked out of the Gym in New Britain.

Don't you see this as a sign that the State Party even doesn't believe in this guy?

Chris MC said...

Here to the best of my knowledge is Roy's record as a campaign manager:

Lucian Pawlak for mayor
of New Britain, 1995 (won a primary, won the general), Curry in 2002 (lost, obviously).

Shall we go back over the months and rehash every half-witted statement directed at Roy? Or perhaps you and your pals could exercise a bit more specificity when discussing the man's professional record, and cut down a bit on the contempt and vitriol? And the blatant hypocrisy, if you get my drift?

You're running true to form to ask for an apology from anybody around here. LMAO.

disgruntled_republican said...

weicker liker -

I read your post the other day. I will say now what I said then. I am working on a post about Alan which will show he is much more than what you claim.

Mr X said...

Turfgrrl.... I am not from Norwalk But I went to Campaign Site and read about it and I see it is a Democratic Seat Do you think that McQuaid could upset the Democrat??

Also I hear you about the taxes I live in Washington for a few years we had the lowest mill rate in Litchfield County Not any more I know it is going up at least 2-3 mills and If they approve the renovation bonding of the 3 Region 12 elementary schools I bet it goes up a few more.

Weicker Liker said...

Disgruntled....

Cheer, cheer, cheer to your hearts content.

Alan Schlesinger is not the candidate that you think he is.

disgruntled_republican said...

Or perhaps it is you that has the wrong idea Weicker liker...

The beauty of this wonderful nation.

Genghis Conn said...

Huh. Now my old union, the CEA, is endorsing Lamont.

Weirdos!

Seriously, though, that's a big, influential, well-financed union, despite its many flaws.

BRubenstein said...

Turfgrll..no i was not the basher....sorry....

But i do feel based on his record that i know of ( 0 for 3)that he had no business advising anyone on strategy or tactics..though i will say he is a good press person.

Weicker Liker said...

Disgruntled....

I think my sense of Schlesinger is pretty good.

BRubenstein said...

Chris Chris Chris....you always get personal with me for some reason...i gave you his record...now try to deal with reality and stop getting personal...or get therapy

disgruntled_republican said...

WL-

You missed my point. I can tell you don't like him. I happen to like him. Fortunetly we all get to decide if he gets the nod in the voting booth, not here.

BRubenstein said...

Disgruntled....

Any Dem who discounts or takes your Senate candidate for granted does so at their peril.

Schlesinger, will have wide appeal in YOUR party and i think with Dick Foley mananging him ( i know him) he has an experienced hand...

These "staffers" and folks with no experience,facts or evidence like Chris for instance can only spread "spin"...the main taks in a possible 3 way race for MY party will be to cut into the "U's" as much as possible, probably by highlighting quality of life issues and the war...in any regard would you agree with me that there is no recent historical evidence here and we are operating in the dark to a degree?

disgruntled_republican said...

BR-

"there is no recent historical evidence here and we are operating in the dark to a degree?"

I would agree...there can be some comparisons drawn to Weicker's Senate win but as a whole, you are correct.

I think Weiker Liker either had a bad experience with Schlesinger or has an axe to grind with him (my 2nd $2 phrase for today!!!)

Weicker Liker said...

Dosgruntled & BR...

Have neither an axe to grind or had bad experience with Alan Schlesinger.

Just dont see him as a very appealing candidate.

Weicker Liker said...

Disgruntled and BR....

Then there is the money issue with Schlesinger.

As of May, he had about $20,000 ($10,000 loaned to campaign).

Where is he coming up with $1 Million?

BRubenstein said...

Disgruntled...I dont see waves of Republicans or Democrats simply bolting their respective Parties to vote for Joe...and certainly within YOUR party, which is alot more homogenious then mine..Schlesinger is a conservative who fits within the mainstream quite weii in your party.

In my party we will put alot of pressure on state central,congressional delegation and elected officials and town chairs to support Lamont in case Joe bolts..only the DLC conservative types will probably bolt...and they dont constitute much in my party here in CT.

BRubenstein said...

weicker Liker...

If Joe bolts, and after a couple more weeks of the unions coming out for Lamont..and increased support and polling numbers for Lamont i think it likely ( 70% to 30%) that Joe will bolt..then you will see hte rich conservative Republicans have fundriasers for Schlesinger..and i might add....there stars like McCain..Guiliani..etc will come in to CT to help Schlesinger...trust me, while you may not like him...he is a viable candidate.

Those of us for Lamont ( includes me of course) should not discount or dismiss him at all...

disgruntled_republican said...

Oh, and you not seeing him as a very good candidate makes you an authority on him all of sudden?

I am in no way trying to lessen your opinion, you are entitled to it, but there is no reason for the editorial comments about mine. You don't like him, I get it.

You said, "Alan Schlesinger is not the candidate that you think he is". He may not be but I can tell you for certain he is a much much better fit with MY beleifs than Joe or Ned can ever be.

You knock him for being all about the numbers...what's wrong with that? The way this country is headed I see that as a huge plus.

OK, I need to actually work so i'm done for now...be back later though...tataa

Derby Conservative said...

You should definitely not count Schlesinger out. He has unseated a popular Democrat in every election he's won. He beat a Democrat in Derby, where D's outnumber R's by more than 3 to 1. He then won reelection to a 2nd term with over 80% of the popular vote...and the voter make-up did not change during his 1st term.

I'm not saying he's a lock in a 3-way race...I'm just saying that he would have as good a chance as any at winning.

Chris MC said...

Heh. So, now he gets no credit for his Pawlak wins, and lemme get this straight, you are blaming him for Curry's second Gubernatorial loss?

And because he was a consultant on Sullivan's campaign, that is his loss? Ridiculous. If you know even a smattering of what went on there, a sharp and experienced political operative like you must know better. Which would mean you are being intentionally disingenous about that.

And the other Curry race he was a "senior operative" and so that goes in his "L" column?

And you don't know anything about the rest of his record, yet you post he is 0 for 3, and so on? Pretty damned weak.

With your wealth of experience, have you been involved in a meaningful way in any losing races?

disgruntled_republican said...

Derby Conservative...

My sentiments exactly...

OK, im shutting off my Internet explorer now...really...talk toy uo fellas later!

Weicker Liker said...

Bruce...

I disagree with you.

Alan Schlesinger's name recognition is terrible. He may have been nominated, but don't count on him being around in the Fall.

If there are any heavy hitters, they will be coming into the State to fundraise for someone other GOP candidate, not Alan Schlesinger.

Interestingly, Governor Rell has been quite silent on Alan.

That is also a sign there is someone else.

Chris MC said...

FWIW, I am inclined to believe in the placeholder theory of precisely how we will lose this seat to the Republicans. In addition to the absurdly bad Lieberman campaign effort, that is.

Derby Conservative said...

weicker Licker-

You put out these rumors as though they are fact. First you talk about a pre-election roundtable held by George Gallo as though you were privy to the discussion...now you're talking about Schlesinger holding the nomination for a bigger GOP player. Pray tell, since you obviously work for GOP State Central and just don’t like Schlesinger, who is this mystery Republican? Who in the CT GOP today (besides Jodi or any of the current Congressmen) has the ability to step into this race in August and out fundraise Joementum and Left Said Ned? Stop blowing smoke up our collective ass and come out with these facts…you won’t of course, because you have no idea what the hell you’re talking about.

Chris MC said...

OK, given it is pure speculation...

What about the about-to-be-defeated Rob Simmons? He would have the name recognition and poll stronger in the second. If the polls are tilting down, would that be in the realm of possibility?

And who would run in Simmons' place?

Derby Conservative said...

Ed Munster...again?

Weicker Liker said...

Derby Conservative...

The Roll Call piece that involved Chairman George Gallo, Kevin Rennie and others was perfectly clear to me.

The key phrase uttered by Chairman Gallo is a three-wayrace "presents an opportunity for us."

For the record, I was not present at the discussion. Nor am I am employed by the State Party or on the State Central Committee.

By the way, they have so little money they actually owe their employees back pay! Cheap shot, I know.

Think about it: If Connecticut Republicans were on the verge of snatching a US Senate seat from the Democrats, do you really think this grand political prize is going to be handed to Alan Schlesinger?

Look at Governor Rell's posture on Schlesinger's candidacy. Didn't you notice how Schlesinger was snubbed at the Convention, by going last in a room that was 30% full.

I see a sitting member of Congress or Kevin O'Connor taking over. Perhaps Chris Shays?

Mr X said...

Let them put up Nancy Johnson or Chris Shays I could see Rob Simmons doing this especially If The GOP bring in their stars to help raise the money.

The Democrats better keep an eye on things If they get too wound up on Lieberman/Lamont This would open the door for The GOP to try a play like this and maybe get it But WHY would Schlesinger agree to do this Maybe Gallo is going to tell him to step aside.

If Simmons does run who replaces him??

We know if Shays were to you have John McKinney waiting in the wings

Now if Nancy were to do this(I dont think she is crazy enough to give up her seat in Congress)Who would step in Sean Williams? Brian Flaherty? Andrew Roraback??

I think this is an interesting but Not a realistic scenario.I am very puzzled by this.

Weicker Liker said...

Bilko...

Nancy Johnson is not going to step into the Senate Race. She does have the money $2.1 Million, statewide name recognition, but has 20 years of Senority and an influntial position on the House Ways and Means Committee.

My bet would be Chris Shays.

However, the 2nd District discussion would start with State Senator John Kissel (and of course, Mrs. Kissel).

After that, maybe State Senator Tony Gugliamo from Stafford, and gulp, Senator Cathy Cook from SE Connecticut.

Weicker Liker said...

Bilko...

Unsure what deals might have been cut.

Maybe Lan Schlesinger has some kind of benchmark fundraising goal that he has agreed to with Chairman Gallo....

Prove to us you are viable. Either meet the mark, or bow out????

His second quarter FEC report will be telling.

Rell's non endorsement of his candidacy kind of bothers me.

Weicker Liker said...

Bilko....

Read Chairman George Gallo's Remarks in tbe May 3rd Edition Of Roll Call...If Lieberman bolts, Alan Schlesinger is toast.....

GALLO: It's music to my ears when I hear Democrats say the Senate race is a real race.

That creates an opportunity for us, and if we'd had this conversation three months ago, I would have been singing a different tune.

We're trying to recruit candidates who will be available should we need to jump on board - especially given recent press accounts suggesting that the Senator hasn't ruled out an independent bid.

A three-way race creates opportunities for the Republican Party.

There are two or three Republicans who are mulling it over [beyond announced candidates Alan Schlesinger and Paul Streitz].

BRubenstein said...

CHris...not only do you get personal..you havent a clue what you are saying..I am sick of furthering your imitied political education....

Look Chris...Roy was the fkn CAMPAIGN MANAGER for Curry's 2nd race..so YES..he gets the main credit for the loss.

ANd guess what lugnuts...he was JImmy Sullivan CAMPAIGN MANGER after the primary....

Wake up and smell the coffee dude...you know shit about politics

TrueBlueCT said...

All this talk of a Republican taking the Senate seat, --and only because Joe Lieberman is potentially a disloyal rat bastard of a politician.

How far the mighty have fallen. Please Joe, commit to the Primary and put an end to this ugly speculation.

ALittleBitDramatic said...

FYI.
From Hotline On Call:
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/06/post_14.html

"Schumer said that the DSCC "fully supports" Sen. Joe Lieberman in his primary bid, and he refused to rule out continuing that support if Lieberman were to run as an independent.

There were degrees of independence, Schumer said. "You can run as an independent, you can run as an independent Democrat who pledges to vote for Harry Reid as Majority Leader."

Gabe said...

Sgt Bilko said...

I have a question to put to The Lamont Supporters If Joe wins the Primary and Ned Lamont doesn't run as Independent Would you support Lieberman or vote for Schlesinger??

Is Ned Lamont going to run as Independent If he is unsuccessful??

Just curious to hear everyone's thoughts


This got lost in the shuffle but I wanted to give Sgt Bilko an answer...

I would support Lieberman (and the appropriate question is probably would you support Lieberman or not vote - I don't see very many Lamont supporters going Republican in the fall.

Ned Lamont is on record that he would not run as an I if he loses:

"So I have a challenge for our junior senator. Joe, let's both go to the Democratic primary on August 8th, and let the people of Connecticut decide. I'll pledge to back you one hundred percent if you win. And for the good of the party, you'll pledge to support me one hundred percent if I'm victorious. What do you say Senator? May the best Democrat win."

Mr X said...

Gabe...

I thank you for your answer I would have to think for a few days If Joe doesn't make it whether I could support Ned or not.If Joe Goes Indy I would stay with him If not I would let things sort themselves out so to speak.

I am a Conservative Democrat out here in Litchfield County in the little town of Washington I have known Joe Lieberman for 20 years or better and I am not a staffer like Bruce accuses me of.I am an active DTC Member I have been since 1982 I was a senior in High School when i started this journey.

I have paid my dues through the years working as a Campaign Coordinator on Many State Campaigns I have been a Convention Delegate,I have run (not successfully) for State Representative,First Selectman and State Senator in the 1990's

I have been Vice Chmn of DTC since 2000.

So I have been around for a while I had some good mentors and I went for 19 years without a First Selectman candidate winning here until 2001.Now we have won twice since.

Anyway I thank you for your response I really like the blog and it will be interesting to see what shakes out in the weeks ahead

disgruntled_republican said...

OK guys first and foremost:

Simmons is running and winning in the 2CD not jumping into a Senate race. With that, Kissel is running and winning as is Tony G.

Johnson is not going to give up the chance at Chairing Ways & Means to jump into anything

And why would Shays, who is the least liked in his OWN party be given a "promotion"?

And I ask...if Alan Schlesinger is going to bow out why did he drive over an hour to Enfield to ask us for his support? Maybe he is thinking about moving here to take Enfield by seige?

As for Weicker Liker and the comments about who supports who...the last time Rell was asked if she supported Schlesinger was before the goddamned convention where she said she would support who ever won there.

And to the convention...we did the senate last because we expected a roll call vote...doing it last buys time. We aren't used to roll call votes and quite frankly, with Steitz, we didnt want one. We like nice quiet boring conventions that show party unity. Why was it empty? Word spread that Streitz dropped out and nobody wanted to hang around anymore since it was a Sunday. I happened to stay till the end (cause I am a certifiable political junkie) so lets put this nonesense talk of a new candidate to rest cause it aint gonna happen!

Now I am disgruntled!

disgruntled_republican said...

I meant to say Saturday not Sunday.

The Architect said...

Weicker Liker, keep fantasizing. Do you have a hardon for Schlesinger? Saying the room was only 30% full is simply dishonest. Sure, some people left, but the reason for staying (the possibility of an actual vote) was gone.

Disgruntled - Kissel is too conservative for the 2nd CD - he can barely hold his own in Enfield and faces another serious run from Kiner. My money is on Tony G (he's already ran for the seat once before, granted a long time ago) were anything to happen to Rob, but nothing is going to happen. Simmons will be the candidate.

Gabe said...

Chris MC - While the high MoE might make the numbers in the Rasmussen poll hinkey, the poll is not totally worthless. The trendlines still have value (although, again, the actual numbers do not) to show which way it is heading. Here, it seems pretty clear that Lamont is gaining ground. How much would require a better poll.

And thumbs down to Rasmussen for polling 218 people. They know what kind of results they will get from such a small sample - why not over represent likely democratic primary voters in the gross sample so as to have a more accurate result for that particular question?

Brassett said...

I continue to be horrified by the possibility that this could all lead to the GOP picking up the Senate seat. My hope is that Lieberman, who has many options should he lose, will refrain from a third party candidacy and roll the dice in the Democratic primary. I wouldn't bet on it, however.

CC said...

BRubenstein: 70% of Americans want us out of Iraq now? Is that really an accurate figure? In any event, I'm sure you agree that no politician (except perhaps the so-called "moderates" or "mavericks") governs by polling data.

On the issue of Lierberman, I think this race with Lamont is definitely a defining moment for the Democrat party. Here is the ONE Democrat who can occasionally be portrayed as middle of the road and he is villified by the left and targeted for defeat.

Chris MC said...

Bruce, Bruce, Bruce... The issue isn't my political literacy, the issue is your jekyll and hyde routine with comments about people.

When it is about you, why, you are the very picture of righteous indignation.

But you seem to feel some entitlement to cast aspersions on the intellect, professional reputations, and intestinal fortitude of whomever you please, as you please.

Perhaps you should do a bit more homework before attacking a man who, unlike you, is obviously very much in demand these days.

Note: Bruce ducks the question about how many losing races he's been involved with.

And explain to us exactly where Roy made his fatal error on the Curry campaign, and why it couldn't have been the candidate and/or the wild disparity in campaign funding that was the more decisive element?

BRubenstein said...

chris chris chris...first tell me that YOU were wrong in your assessment of Roy's record...btw..i do think he is a fine pressperson...and should stay there and leave the strategy and tactics to others with a better record.

BRubenstein said...

Chris chris chris....BTW..you arent in demand....what race have you been a senior operative or ran? The answer is NONE....why?..because NO ONE WANTS YOU !!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will say this ( and you will disparage it) i have been a senior operative in 10 races...and lost 3 in over 20 years

MightyMouse1 said...

Senior Operatives stuff envelopes in my town. lol

Mr X said...

Mighty Mouse....

Maybe Bruce would like a job stuffing envelopes since he is an experienced Senior Staffer...LOL