The Prospect of an Independent Lieberman Becoming More Likely
Political Wire has a story up today that Lieberman "allies" are planning for an independent Lieberman run. This could mean a any number of things from a bunch of guys thinking up a contingency plan to Lieberman supporters, friends and advisors actually laying the groundwork for an independent Joe.
Even more interestingly, one report in the previous post (hat tip to CTObserver) suggests that Lamont may be as little as six points behind Lieberman (40%-46%), according to a Rasmussen poll. (Update: That poll number now confirmed. Lamont is actually within the margin of error.)
So maybe it'll happen after all. And if it does, what then?
First, despite the polls, there's no real guarantee that Lieberman will actually win in November if he's an independent. He'll have to battle Lamont for Democrats and independents (who seem to be trending towards the Democrats this year), and conservatives will have their own candidate in Alan Schlesinger. Lieberman, as the primary race is starting to show, can't necessarily count on Democratic votes to carry him. If Democrats see him actually leave their party, it could turn a significant number who might have voted his way against him. A Lamont victory, or even a Schlesinger victory, over an independent Lieberman, is possible. Niether are likely, mind you, but the possibility is there.
But what if Lieberman does win? Polls suggest he will. Then what?
Connecticut will essentially have a Jim Jeffords. If Lieberman leaves the party, will he continue to caucus with Democrats? Or will he cross the aisle? What if it's up to Lieberman to decide which way the Senate will go for the next two years? Jeffords swung the Senate. Lieberman could do it, too. If that's the case, he'll be in a great position, and will probably be one of the most powerful and influential men in Washington. For a while.
If not, he'll be a man without a party, which means he'll either be the kind of guy who can easily go back and forth between the camps, or someone nobody will ever talk to.
It will almost certainly mean that this will be his last Senate term.
Now that an independent Lieberman is seeming more and more likely, these sorts of questions are going to come up. If the Rasmussen Poll is right, and Lamont is within easy striking distance, we can expect to start asking them to him very soon.
34 comments:
The Petitioners must be CT Voters.
Out of staters must register in CT.
Would be interesting how that stacks up.
Rubenstein puts on a fine show of demonstrating how the Republican Party is truly the "big tent" party and the Democrats are the true intolerants.
10 years ago it was abortion - pro-life and you were shunned by the party faithful. Now it's Iraq.
I believe Joe Lieberman will win whether he is with the Democrats or If he runs as an Independent.
I am still not sold on Ned Lamont being a US Senator I think he is just a one issue guy and If he is the Democratic Nominee I will not support him.
This is the 1st time in my life I would consider voting something other than Democrat in 25 years.
Confirmed by Political Wire (which is outstandingly useful today). Six points. Actually within the seven point margin of error.
Small sample size, though, so it may not be entirely accurate.
Blog nuclear testing ground?
Chris, you may be right about 10%. Lieberman has just been tanking over the past two weeks--ever since the convention, really.
Staff shakeup is the easiest way to simulate change. He'll probably do that.
Never, CTObserver!
I like the way certain people on this blog Immediately think someone is a"Lieberman Staffer" Because their opinion isnt the same as theirs.
There are people here who like to participate in intimidation If you are not of the same opinion and I am turned off by the rowdyness of some in The Lamont Camp.
I say we have differences of opinion about Joe or Ned lets talk about them rather than sit here and name call and intimidate people.But lets participate in a discussion.
It is this kind of behavior that turns me off to ever supporting Lamont for this or any other office He decides to run for.
Nope.
I have a question to put to The Lamont Supporters If Joe wins the Primary and Ned Lamont doesn't run as Independent Would you support Lieberman or vote for Schlesinger??
Is Ned Lamont going to run as Independent If he is unsuccessful??
Just curious to hear everyone's thoughts
Bluecoat, the truth hurts.
Disgruntled Rep.... No that was not aimed at you. I think that Schlesinger is a great candidate and If The Democrats don't pull it together once the primary is over We may see Schlesinger get really hot especially if the side that loses the primary falls in behind him and We could see a Republican Senator for the 1st time since 1988.I appreciate your comments
Chris MC... I like the way you stand up to Bruce.Always enjoy reading your thoughts and opinions on this blog.
DR... The Intimidation remark was aimed at Bruce If you dont agree with Bruce you cant express your opinion on here.He has accused me of being a staffer for Lieberman and a spindoctor. I am just a Litchfield County resident I work all night and come here to spend part of my day talking and reading what my fellow bloggers are saying.
Despite Bruce's scare and intimidation tactics which aren't working I really look forward to the dialogue from all sides of the spectrum that is really what this is all about.
If Lieberman actually had half the people who have been accused of being staffers as actual staffers, he wouldn't be in this mess.
A list of primaries is here:
http://ctelection2006.pbwiki.com/primary
It is incomplete. You can add to it! In fact, please do. The password is election.
My thoughts are this Senate Race is going to sizzle in July and in the 1st week of August leading up to the primary.
Yes I am for Lieberman But I think Lamont will likely close in and the polls are beginning to show that.
I think were talking the margin of victory around 2-3% for the winner.
Disgruntled Republican and others....
I'm not impressed from what I have heard and seen from Alan Schlesinger's campaign so far.
I've seen or heard him speak four times. In person, on television twice, and on WTIC Radio.
Its a huge stretch that Connecticut voters are going to support him in droves if it comes down to a three person race.
First, I don't think he demonstated an ability to connect with voters. From his comments and interviews, he struck me to be all about numbers, and thats akin to his background in finance.
Reminds me of a former Republican First Selectman from my hometown that was very bright, but had ZERO people skills.
Sure, I'll bet Schlesinger was great before Disgruntled's Town Committee in Enfield. Talked about his conservative beliefs, ect.
Schlesinger is alot like Ned Lamont. One track, one issue, nothing really progressive or appealing about him. He is one step above Jack Orchulli, but not that far up.
I thought his speech at the State Convention in New Britain was unappealing and flat. Nothing that was distinguished. It reeked opportunism.
Second, I've been to his website, every day since he announced.
His website has given people no compelling reason to revisit it.
Material on it is poorly presented.
Nothing new from Alan since he announced his nomination.
Nothing to say how active he has been campaigning for the office.
Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Shows a campaign with no direction or vision.
Thats a turnoff to potential donors.
Third, in regards to the mystery candidate that I have alluded to, I still think Chairman Gallo's remarks in the "Roll Call" roundtable discussion - before the State Convention - were telling.
Kevin O'Connor, another opportunist, have us clues to his interest in the Senate seat. He begged Jodi Rell not to select him as Lieutenant Governor. Thats because he wants to be US Senator.
And rememberm the State GOP has twisted Schlesinger's arm before: In 1998 he was pursuaded not to Primary Mark Neilsen in the 5th CD. The State GOP gave him an unpaid Legal Advisory post.
Look for the parties involved to up the ante: Maybe Alan would like to be a Superior Court Judge or be Commissioner of Education, Commissioner of Motor Vehicles, ect.
Fourth, notice how shabbily the recent State Convention ended.
The State Party treated Schlesinger and the Senate race as an afterthought: Had his nomination last, after Rell.
How anticlimatic!!!!
70% of the delegates walked out of the Gym in New Britain.
Don't you see this as a sign that the State Party even doesn't believe in this guy?
Turfgrrl.... I am not from Norwalk But I went to Campaign Site and read about it and I see it is a Democratic Seat Do you think that McQuaid could upset the Democrat??
Also I hear you about the taxes I live in Washington for a few years we had the lowest mill rate in Litchfield County Not any more I know it is going up at least 2-3 mills and If they approve the renovation bonding of the 3 Region 12 elementary schools I bet it goes up a few more.
Disgruntled....
Cheer, cheer, cheer to your hearts content.
Alan Schlesinger is not the candidate that you think he is.
Huh. Now my old union, the CEA, is endorsing Lamont.
Weirdos!
Seriously, though, that's a big, influential, well-financed union, despite its many flaws.
Disgruntled....
I think my sense of Schlesinger is pretty good.
Dosgruntled & BR...
Have neither an axe to grind or had bad experience with Alan Schlesinger.
Just dont see him as a very appealing candidate.
Disgruntled and BR....
Then there is the money issue with Schlesinger.
As of May, he had about $20,000 ($10,000 loaned to campaign).
Where is he coming up with $1 Million?
Bruce...
I disagree with you.
Alan Schlesinger's name recognition is terrible. He may have been nominated, but don't count on him being around in the Fall.
If there are any heavy hitters, they will be coming into the State to fundraise for someone other GOP candidate, not Alan Schlesinger.
Interestingly, Governor Rell has been quite silent on Alan.
That is also a sign there is someone else.
Derby Conservative...
The Roll Call piece that involved Chairman George Gallo, Kevin Rennie and others was perfectly clear to me.
The key phrase uttered by Chairman Gallo is a three-wayrace "presents an opportunity for us."
For the record, I was not present at the discussion. Nor am I am employed by the State Party or on the State Central Committee.
By the way, they have so little money they actually owe their employees back pay! Cheap shot, I know.
Think about it: If Connecticut Republicans were on the verge of snatching a US Senate seat from the Democrats, do you really think this grand political prize is going to be handed to Alan Schlesinger?
Look at Governor Rell's posture on Schlesinger's candidacy. Didn't you notice how Schlesinger was snubbed at the Convention, by going last in a room that was 30% full.
I see a sitting member of Congress or Kevin O'Connor taking over. Perhaps Chris Shays?
Let them put up Nancy Johnson or Chris Shays I could see Rob Simmons doing this especially If The GOP bring in their stars to help raise the money.
The Democrats better keep an eye on things If they get too wound up on Lieberman/Lamont This would open the door for The GOP to try a play like this and maybe get it But WHY would Schlesinger agree to do this Maybe Gallo is going to tell him to step aside.
If Simmons does run who replaces him??
We know if Shays were to you have John McKinney waiting in the wings
Now if Nancy were to do this(I dont think she is crazy enough to give up her seat in Congress)Who would step in Sean Williams? Brian Flaherty? Andrew Roraback??
I think this is an interesting but Not a realistic scenario.I am very puzzled by this.
Bilko...
Nancy Johnson is not going to step into the Senate Race. She does have the money $2.1 Million, statewide name recognition, but has 20 years of Senority and an influntial position on the House Ways and Means Committee.
My bet would be Chris Shays.
However, the 2nd District discussion would start with State Senator John Kissel (and of course, Mrs. Kissel).
After that, maybe State Senator Tony Gugliamo from Stafford, and gulp, Senator Cathy Cook from SE Connecticut.
Bilko...
Unsure what deals might have been cut.
Maybe Lan Schlesinger has some kind of benchmark fundraising goal that he has agreed to with Chairman Gallo....
Prove to us you are viable. Either meet the mark, or bow out????
His second quarter FEC report will be telling.
Rell's non endorsement of his candidacy kind of bothers me.
Bilko....
Read Chairman George Gallo's Remarks in tbe May 3rd Edition Of Roll Call...If Lieberman bolts, Alan Schlesinger is toast.....
GALLO: It's music to my ears when I hear Democrats say the Senate race is a real race.
That creates an opportunity for us, and if we'd had this conversation three months ago, I would have been singing a different tune.
We're trying to recruit candidates who will be available should we need to jump on board - especially given recent press accounts suggesting that the Senator hasn't ruled out an independent bid.
A three-way race creates opportunities for the Republican Party.
There are two or three Republicans who are mulling it over [beyond announced candidates Alan Schlesinger and Paul Streitz].
Sgt Bilko said...
I have a question to put to The Lamont Supporters If Joe wins the Primary and Ned Lamont doesn't run as Independent Would you support Lieberman or vote for Schlesinger??
Is Ned Lamont going to run as Independent If he is unsuccessful??
Just curious to hear everyone's thoughts
This got lost in the shuffle but I wanted to give Sgt Bilko an answer...
I would support Lieberman (and the appropriate question is probably would you support Lieberman or not vote - I don't see very many Lamont supporters going Republican in the fall.
Ned Lamont is on record that he would not run as an I if he loses:
"So I have a challenge for our junior senator. Joe, let's both go to the Democratic primary on August 8th, and let the people of Connecticut decide. I'll pledge to back you one hundred percent if you win. And for the good of the party, you'll pledge to support me one hundred percent if I'm victorious. What do you say Senator? May the best Democrat win."
Gabe...
I thank you for your answer I would have to think for a few days If Joe doesn't make it whether I could support Ned or not.If Joe Goes Indy I would stay with him If not I would let things sort themselves out so to speak.
I am a Conservative Democrat out here in Litchfield County in the little town of Washington I have known Joe Lieberman for 20 years or better and I am not a staffer like Bruce accuses me of.I am an active DTC Member I have been since 1982 I was a senior in High School when i started this journey.
I have paid my dues through the years working as a Campaign Coordinator on Many State Campaigns I have been a Convention Delegate,I have run (not successfully) for State Representative,First Selectman and State Senator in the 1990's
I have been Vice Chmn of DTC since 2000.
So I have been around for a while I had some good mentors and I went for 19 years without a First Selectman candidate winning here until 2001.Now we have won twice since.
Anyway I thank you for your response I really like the blog and it will be interesting to see what shakes out in the weeks ahead
Weicker Liker, keep fantasizing. Do you have a hardon for Schlesinger? Saying the room was only 30% full is simply dishonest. Sure, some people left, but the reason for staying (the possibility of an actual vote) was gone.
Disgruntled - Kissel is too conservative for the 2nd CD - he can barely hold his own in Enfield and faces another serious run from Kiner. My money is on Tony G (he's already ran for the seat once before, granted a long time ago) were anything to happen to Rob, but nothing is going to happen. Simmons will be the candidate.
Chris MC - While the high MoE might make the numbers in the Rasmussen poll hinkey, the poll is not totally worthless. The trendlines still have value (although, again, the actual numbers do not) to show which way it is heading. Here, it seems pretty clear that Lamont is gaining ground. How much would require a better poll.
And thumbs down to Rasmussen for polling 218 people. They know what kind of results they will get from such a small sample - why not over represent likely democratic primary voters in the gross sample so as to have a more accurate result for that particular question?
BRubenstein: 70% of Americans want us out of Iraq now? Is that really an accurate figure? In any event, I'm sure you agree that no politician (except perhaps the so-called "moderates" or "mavericks") governs by polling data.
On the issue of Lierberman, I think this race with Lamont is definitely a defining moment for the Democrat party. Here is the ONE Democrat who can occasionally be portrayed as middle of the road and he is villified by the left and targeted for defeat.
Mighty Mouse....
Maybe Bruce would like a job stuffing envelopes since he is an experienced Senior Staffer...LOL
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