Monday, December 04, 2006

Waterbury Rumors: Jarjura May Not Run

The Waterbury Republican-American explores next year's mayoral election:
Police Superintendent Neil O'Leary said last week that he's not running for mayor in 2007, but that's only because he remains loyal to Mayor Michael J. Jarjura, who says he'll seek a fourth term.
[...]
Former Alderman Richard Scappini is less reluctant about signaling he will challenge Jarjura in August for the Democratic nomination.

Scappini retired from the U.S. Navy on Friday after 24 years with the Judge Adjutant General's office, which clears the way for him to be in Waterbury full-time.
[...]
Alderman J. Paul Vance Jr., who has made no secret that he would like to be mayor, said he's not going to challenge Jarjura in a primary.

Talk continues around the city that Jarjura ultimately will back out of the race.

Jarjura dismisses that talk, and insists he's going to run. He also denies a story going around that he was considering running as an unaffiliated candidate to avoid a costly primary. (Gambini)

So will he run or not? As you may remember, Jarjura was defeated in a bitter primary in 2005, only to win re-election as a write-in candidate. If he doesn't run, expect a primary battle to determine his successor. There may be a primary even if he does run.

It should also be noted that Republican candidates can win in Waterbury despite a heavy registration advantage for Democrats.

Source
Gambini, Steve. "Waterbury: Challengers waiting in wings to take on Jarjura." Waterbury Republican-American 4 December, 2006.

41 comments:

bluecoat said...

Surely Jrjura can cough up money for pencils another time around.

BrassBoy said...

Now we're talking...

Mayor Jarjura's write-in victory in 2005, while certainly historic and unprecedented, was not as much of a surprise as many think, given the candidates and factors at play in that election.

I'll spare everyone the full details...

You had a sparse primary turnout, with mostly anti-Jarjura folks who were just looking to oust him and make a statement, regardless of the opponent. Once the general election rolled around, most of the voters in Waterbury were scared silly by their choices:

- a disgruntled former administration employee with an axe to grind and almost no managerial experience

- a perennial also-ran with a small but loyal group of supporters and not much else to offer

- a Republican placeholder who was a last minute "fill-in" candidate

Most general election voters went to the polls and were appalled by the choices on the actual ballot. Enter Mayor Jarjura and his war-chest, allowing for some good tv spots and free pencils.

After the anti-Jarjura votes were split in two and the Republican voters held their nose and voted Jarjura rather than vote for the placeholder... you have a write-in victory for the Mayor.

Things should be a lot different this time around...

Anonymous said...

Maybe Jarjura wants to run against Murphy for CT-5?

ctblogger said...

Anon 12:21, Jarjura wouldn't stand a chance against Murphy and State Central would put their foot down and pressure Jarjura not to even think about it.

The challenge to Murphy is going to come from Republicans who are more than happy that Johnson is gone. I say look out for Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton or State Senator David Cappiello to challenge Murphy. I'd lean more to Cappiello as Boughton isn't really liked that much by the state top brass because of his embarrassing anti-immigration policy.

The only way Boughton could have a chance is if he wins re-election in a city in which Democrats have a registration advantage while Cappiello comes from a well-known family (which is symbolic of politics in Danbury), and went unchallenged for his seat in November.

In any case, the Republicans will have a challenger that they'll rally behind and there is NO WAY Democrats are going to abandon someone like Chris Murphy. This leaves Jarjura nowhere...he;s just lucky he won re-election during the last cycle because his challengers were so under qualified (and who can forget about those pencils).

Anonymous said...

I heard rumors that Vance met with Jarjura soon after the mid-terms to talk about the possibility that Lieberman would pressure for an appointment of Jarjura to a federal position and thereby leave the Mayor's office (and '07 race) wide-open.

Any truth? Perhaps Vance can either confirm or deny them right here on CLP.

Anonymous said...

I would like to see Cappiello run against Smurph. Cappeillo would get killed and the Senate R's would be down to 11.

BrassBoy said...

Anon1:46...

I believe the premise of the rumor you heard is correct. However, I also hear that Jarjura has not been making himself all that available to Vance as there may be some friction there, so the meeting hasn't happened.

It's a widely held notion (whether true or not) that Mayor Jajura spends a fair amount of time at one the state's fine Indian gaming casinos rather than in meetings with people such as Mr. Vance.

Anonymous said...

I hear a rumor that Vance has a committee ready to go and is going to run despite the article in today's Waterbury paper.

Anonymous said...

Mike Jarjura tried to bag Chris Murphy in the last week prior to the election by refusing to allow a political flyer. Perhaps Congressman Murphy will help Paul Vance oust Jarjura?

Anonymous said...

Brassboy- how true, rumor has it Jarjura was down $1.5 million to Foxwoods, he is not only a whale in gambling terms...they settled for 600K in cash to let him go.

Anonymous said...

where's Selim Noujaim on all this?

Anonymous said...

I find it difficult to believe that Vance has a committee of willing peons ready to overtake the city and spread the gospel. He has never run for a hotly contested office and strikes me as someone to view with a suspicious eye.

As for Jarjura, the rumors regarding his affection with blackjack are well traveled. To stroke the flame, I heard a number of campaigns were looking for his help the weekend prior to the election and he was no where to be found. Common belief is that he was at the casino with no means of contact to the outside world.

As for Noujaim, he too has made it quietly clear that he would like to be Mayor. He is extremely well liked in the 74th, has the support of the major media outlets (WATR and Rep-Am) and could no doubt raise the money necessary to combat the large (no pun intended) pockets of Jarjura. I would not be surprised if he were the eventual nominee for the GOP.

Anonymous said...

Selim is very well liked, especially in his own mind. He was once spreading rumors that Governor Rell asked him to run for Lt. Gov.

I could understand why the GOP would case a suspicious eye towards Vance. He is always the high vote getter in Waterbury in primary and general elections. He was endorsed by WATR and Waterbury Republican American. Best of all, as a loyal democrat he campaigned for Chris Murphy.

Anonymous said...

Since when does a radio station issue endorsements?

Vance does not like Chris Murphy and never did...

Anonymous said...

yeah, honestly, who's floating THAT notion around?

Paul Vance said...

So what rumor should I comment on?

Chris Murphy is my sworn enemy? I guess I should have not done that mailer for him.

And to the Anonymous that says to keep a 'suspicious eye' on me, I think we should keep an eye on all of our elected officials-- our recent history should teach us at least that much.

Have I spoken to Mayor Jarjura about my interest in running for Mayor? Yes I have, and of course I am interested in public service and in other leadership opportunities- including the possibility of seeking elected office. I told the Waterbury paper as much.

Selim Noujaim is a good guy, someone that I have know since I was a kid and he would be a formidable candidate.

I don't honestly know who will run for mayor next year, but I am flattered to be 'on the short list' in discussions.

As for having a "committee of willing peons ready to overtake the city and spread the gospel"--- I leave spreading the gospel to those who are more capable and I am certain that my family and friends might balk at being called "peons".

Gabe said...

More importantly - Whats the outlook for the basketball team this year?

Paul Vance said...

Hi Gabe--

We have no where to go but up, my girls team (Crosby) was 0-20 last year. First game this Friday, on WATR radio (www.watr.com)7pm.

As for my beloved Villanova Wildcats, they look ok.

JPV

Anonymous said...

Mr. Vance:

So, will you primary Jarjura if, in fact, he runs for a 4th term?

Anonymous said...

Wait, scratch that...you said in the Waterbury Republican American that you would not.

Guess I was just trying to cause trouble. Would have made for a great primary though.

Paul Vance said...

I don't believe everything I read in the paper.

Anonymous said...

This is great. Kudos to you, Paul, for engaging in such dialogue.

Have you considered running for State Rep. or possibly attempting to primary Sen. Hartley?

All would be great races to watch.

And, by your last comment, are you insinuating that you are considering a primary race with Jarjura?

Paul Vance said...

Have I ever considered running for other offices? Sure I have, politics is in my blood- and I love Waterbury-- so naturally I look for ways to improve the place where I live.

Since I put my 'toe in the water' so to speak in the 5th Congressional Race, I would say that I will not publically 'explore' another race- but will be more inclined to dive into something.

I am not trying to be coy, but I don't make my decisions based on a newspaper deadline. To steal a line from Obama-- I talk to two higher powers- God and my wife, and then I make a decision. I don't know about 2007 yet, I am just trying to get my Christmas shopping done at this point!

Anonymous said...

doing a mailer does not constitute friendship... nore like political expedience...

Anonymous said...

To steal verbiage, Mr. Vance, your comments are "suspiciously" akin to what a candidate would say.

Politics is a 24-7, 365 proposition. Election cycles are ubiquitous and never-ending. Anyone who says otherwise must be a candidate, in one capacity or another.

Best of luck in 2007, JPV.

Paul Vance said...

Anon-- No, I have not ever been invited to Chris Murphy's house for dinner and we do not exchange Christmas gifts. We are two politicians in the same party. Am I missing something?


Thanks for the good wishes in 2007.

Paul Vance said...

Sure, politics is a never-ending cycle. The same can be said about the challenges that Waterbury faces (or our state or our country). So be it as a poltician, basketball coach or volunteer- I will be involved.

Anonymous said...

I am a proud member of the Paul Vance "committee of willing peons ready to overtake the city and spread the gospel", thats actually the name of our PAC.

People out there should be thankful that theres guys like JPV that take time away from their job, family and friends to take part in the thankless business of wtby politics (or politics in general). If he announced today id be his first contributor and the first one to sign a volunteer sheet, and id have a line of hundreds behind me. In a primary JPV wins, hands down.

On the republican side, Noujaim might own his district, but outside of that his aw shucks nice guy schtick aint gonna go to far, JPV wins, hands down.

Anonymous said...

Worked for Caligiuri.

Anonymous said...

that and following a monster into office.

Anonymous said...

Caligiuri had several things going for him Noujaim doesnt. He was for some strange reason anointed a saint in Wtby after the Giordano scandal, he ran in strong Republican leaning Wolcott, and ran against a guy who was a low vote getter in his own town as a council candidate. Not to mention his opponent ran a negative campaign that turned many would be supporters off. Fact of the matter is, if Southington wasnt power hungry and Mazurek was the candidate, Corky woulda beat him all day long.

Anyone Noujaim runs against for mayor will not be a Dave Zoni, remember that.

Anonymous said...

Ask anyone in Hartford (lobbyists and caucus staffs) and they will tell you that Zoni (negative campaign or not) came a lot closer than anyone anticipated. No way Zoni was gonna win that race with 130k.

As an aside, anyone think it was the Caligiuri/Zoni race that led to Williams' advancement of the "clean campaigning" proposal? Think maybe he was a little pissed at his brain trust for approving that piece?

The "clean, good-guy" image in Waterbury works. Who can blame them, they've seen their share of pain and suffering due to narcissistic and power-driven politicians.

BrassBoy said...

LOL... "Corky would beat him all day long..."

that's funny...

In oner of the most anti-Republican years in recent memory, against a candidate with the support of every major union in the state, with the full support and assistance of the WTBY Firefighters union... Sam Caligiuri still won, and won convincingly.

But you're right, he would probably get beat by anyone else...

BrassBoy said...

Listen folks, Paul is a great guy, I like him a lot. Selim is a good guy as is Tony D'Amelio and a lot of politicians in Waterbury, contrary to a popular opinion.

The fact of the matter is, being a nice guy is not, and should not be the criteria for winning an election in Waterbury. I am sure any one of those individuals I just named, as well as anyone else who has their eyes on a public office will agree, just being a good guy is not enough.

Let's start seeing some ideas and some qualifications...

Anonymous said...

BrassBoy:

I completely agree with you. But it's clear that in Waterbury, presenting as a "good, clean-cut" politician goes a long way.

I don't know if I agree with you that Sam would have gotten beat by "anyone else". Sam ran a great campaign. He had a ton of money, established himself long before his opponent even figured out who he was (which was something Zoni's campaign obviously struggled with throughout, though they did a good job considering it was just a kid running his campaign), and did a textbook job turning the attention of the mailer from the substance to the picture. The margin itself demonstrates that Sam campaigned well and will be difficult to beat in the future. Knowing your interest in Waterbury politics, any ideas who may venture to run against Caligiuri in '08?

Overall, I think Waterbury is in good hands. Surely they have problems, but they have (all relative, mind you) idealistic, talented and qualified people (from both sides of the isle) to deal with them.

wtbywonder said...

Come on BrassBoy, we all have our loyalties but lets talk turkey here. Zoni got a late start, had no overwelming support in Wolcott or Wtby (you know as well as i do, as honored as we are to have these firemen helping out on election day, few live in the district) and he still came very very close. I didnt say anyone woulda beat Sam, I said Mazurek woulda. If Corky had been the candidate from the get, it woulda been a different ball game.

PS on a side note, we both know that any anti-republican or any other kind of national sentiment never carries over to local elections around here.

BrassBoy said...

Anon5:01...

I agree 100% and was being a bit sarcastic when I said he would've gotten beat. It's typical in politics as in most areas of life to look back and pick apart all the ways that things could've been different for the losing candidate. I was just responding to some of the posts that seem to think that anyone else but Zoni would've beat Caligiuri. Fact is, Sam ran a good campaign and made some adjustments based on his opponent. Any other candidate and other adjustments would've been made.

Who do I think will run against him? That I'm not sure of at this time. THe Waterbury Dems generally hold him in high regard and I could see a sacrificial lamb from them (if the candidate is from Waterbury), as they give Caligiuri '08 and hope he goes for something else in '10. As far as Wolcott fielding a Dem, it would be Mazurek and I don't think he'll do it now that's it's not an open race. I would guess another, more popular Southington Dem takes a shot.

BrassBoy said...

wtbywonder...

I agree with your assessment of ZOni's campaign, but the fact is he didn't really come that close. Caligiuri needed large margins in Wtby, Wolcott and Cheshire and merely needed to hold his own in Southington, which is what he did. One could say that the outcome went exactly according to his plan, which is saying something in politics.

I also agree that facing Mazurek would've been a much tougher challenge for Caligiuri, but I also think Caligiuri would've run a slightly different campaign if that was the case and would've done better in Southington, stemming the Wolcott tide.

But I do disagree to an extent on the national sentiment. It may not be a huge factor, but every little bit counts in this game and that was soething working against Caligiuri and all Repubs.

Anonymous said...

Let's be clear- the Senate Democrats were telling anyone that would listen that Zoni was going to beat Calgiuri. Rowland this, Giordano that, concert tickets, ethics, some affair that never happened. You name and they were saying it and they know exactly who they are that was saying it. It was the same guy that put together the nasty mailer. So now everyone wants to rewrite history because it didn't work out for them, but those are the facts and they are indisputable.

Anonymous said...

Anon 1:04

The caucus would have been dismantled if they publicly admitted that Zoni was going to loose. I'm sure that they all regret that mailer, but Zoni lost by 3k votes; far more than 1 mailer would account for.

Sam did admit to having a "personal" relationship with the women from the Ethics Commission. In fact, I believe he was quoted in the Hartford Courant as saying, "In hindsight, I can see the problem that would create," referring to their respective positions and responsibilities in state government.

Who is this "guy" that you refer to in your comments?

And hell, your guy won - the ultimate in politics, and life for that matter - no need to be overly defensive about how he won.

Anonymous said...

Vance has one major thing over Selim Noujaim and Tony D'Amelio. He can speak.