Saturday, December 30, 2006

Predictions for 2007

The new year is almost upon us. So what do you think is going to happen over the next twelve months?

Here are a couple of my own predictions, for what it's worth:
  • Gov. Rell will end 2007 with significantly lower popularity than she currently enjoys.
  • The legislature will pass some sort of universal health care plan in the waning hours of the 2007 session. It will be nothing like Rell's proposal.
  • Rob Simmons will announce that he's running again for Congress.
  • A primary between two no-name Republicans will start shaping up in the 5th District.
  • The most interesting mayoral race will be in Waterbury, again.
  • Republicans will make small but significant gains in municipal elections.
  • The legislature will not override a single veto of Rell's.
  • Joe Lieberman will make himself as big a pain in the ass as possible for everyone.
  • American troops will begin leaving Iraq by next December.
  • Chris Dodd will withdraw from the presidential race late in the year.
  • The race for the Democratic nomination will shape up as a battle between Obama and Edwards. Hillary Clinton will be a distant third.
  • The Republican field will be a contest between McCain and someone who is acting as the anti-McCain: maybe Gingrich or possibly Romney.
  • Michael Bloomberg will run for president as an independent candidate. Joe Lieberman will publicly support him, and probably end up as his running mate.
I remind you, my predictions are usually terrible. I think I was wrong on every single one last year!

So what are your predictions?


Mr X said...

Mr X's Predictions

1.Joe Lieberman will do a great job in The US Senate in his first year of his six year 4th term.

2.Andrew Roraback and Mark Boughton will begin making plans to unseat Chris Murphy in the 5th CD.

3.John McKinney will begin making a plan to succeed Christopher Shays in the 4th CD as Shays will retire in 2008.

4.John Edwards,Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be the frontrunners for Democratic Presidential Nomination in 2008

5. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani will become GOP Presidential Frontrunners in 2008.

6.CT Democrats will start looking for Gubernatorial Candidates for 2010.

Anonymous said...

My prediections:

1.) In an unusual moment of clarity and unity, Congress will denounce Joe Lieberman.

2.) Hillary Rodham Clinton will not even "place" in the election primaries, losing early, causing Obama and Gore to laugh aloud.

3.) CT's national shame and embarrassment over Lieberman will somewhat diminish as the year progresses.

4.) Rell will step down as governor for health reasons.

Shadow said...

Genghis, I totally agree on Edwards and Obama, and I really hope that is the case. If those two end up being the last candidates standing, it would be great for the election and the country; both are so positive in their approach that their debates would actually be about the issues (perhaps not dissimilar to the glimmer of hope the Lamont-Schlesinger debate gave us).

In terms of the political analysis, not only could this result in Obama and Edwards looking more substantive than the GOP candidates (should Republicans choose to go negative in their primaries and spend more time bickering than on issues), but it would make the eventual Republican nominee look especially bad should they be the first one to go negative in the general.

TrueBlueCT said...

I predict that none other than Senator Chris Dodd gets behind the push for Universal Health Coverage in Connecticut, and on the back of this initiative, (once it passes!), he rides up in the polls from virtual unknown to serious Presidential challenger.

And to those of you who can't understand that Chris would make a much better President than Hillary, Barack, McCain, Rudy or Mitt, .... "Bah Humbug!"

Anonymous said...

Hey Genghis. Haven't seen or spoken to you in a while. Hope the holiday season is treating you well.

By and large, I think your predictions are spot on. I agree with most completely. The only additions/comments I would make:

1) the legislature will have to override at least one of rell's vetos--to prove they can--but, knowing this, she'll wisely work out a compromise and float them a softball to overide so all sides can save face.

2) by the end of 2007, the dem presidential race (which, as you have predicted, will be dominated by obama and edwards) will be thrown on it's head with the late enterance of al gore, who will become the immediate frontrunner and will quickly have obama or richardson sign on as a running mate. if it's obama, game over. if it's richardson (which is actually the stronger ticket in a general) an obama/edwards partnership is the only thing that can possibly challenge them.

3) I think you're largely right on the GOP side too, but don't forget brownback. the 'anti-mccain' candidate, as you call him/her, will necessarily be the christian conservative candidate. christian fundamentalists have gained to much power in the past decade to just give it away now. romney is trying to woo that base, but chances that they'll embrace a mormon are pretty slim.

it is for this reason that i don't believe mr. x's prediction that mccain and guiliani will be gop frontrunners--they're both trying to draw the same republican contingent.

also, mr. x, i think ct dems have more than enough gubernatorial candidates already. Susan Bysiewicz and Dan Malloy look like likely frontrunners (John DeStefano does, of course, have a claim on that title as well). Don Williams, Jim Amann (G-d forbid) and Mary Glassman fill out the second tier candidates, and there are enough unlikely-but-possible spoilers (Dick Blumenthal, Ned Lamont and Nancy Wyman, among others) that the field is pretty crowded already.

Anonymous said...

I'm predicting that Edwards will win the Big Four, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. In these primaries he will get the support of the unions and the antibush netroots people will come out in bigtime numbers like they did for Lamont.

IMO, Edwards will select Obama as he running mate for the Whitehouse. One word four syllables (UNBEATABLE)

Edwards/Obama would be the best presidential ticket the democrats have had in my 23 year lifetime.

cgg said...

I predict that Republicans will fight hard and make some gains in the municipal elections.

The General Assembly and Rell will find a compromise on healthcare that makes them and her look good.

Joe Lieberman will either run for prez as an Independent or join some sort of unity ticket.

Round 2 of Simmons v Courtney will begin early in 2007, maybe even in the next couple of weeks.

Following the advice of his mirror Chris Dodd will run for president. He won't win the nomination but will do better than expected.

The new Congress will bring some balance back to DC. Both Bush and Pelosi's approval ratings will be around 50% by the middle of the year.

Anonymous said...

A different persepctive:

1) No deal on healthcare....Dems propose "true" universal healthcare, Rell vetoes, but veto is sustained with a few Democratic defectors

2) Andrew Roraback emerges as the front-runner to take on Chris Murphy, although nothing will be decided before 2008

3) Simmons will take the Republican party chair, but SKIP running against Courtney is 2008 to run for Governor or US Senator in 2010.

4) Shays doesn't retire...he's there for at least another 6-8 years with minimal opposition. (Dems do not have anyone strong in the district besides Dan Malloy, and he is running for Gov in 2010)

lamontcranston said...

Chris Murphy will impress nobody in his first year in Congress. except for some liberal posters on CLP.

In the Municipal elections Republicans will hold mayoral positions in Torrington and New Britain.

Jodi Rell will end the year nowhere near as popular as she is right now.

The General Assembly will have low approval numbers.

And my way out there prediction...CLP will get another conservative blogger...maybe not

Ebpie said...

My 2007 Predictions:

• Due to budget constraints facing the state over the next few years, Rell and the Democrats in the legislature will pass a modest healthcare agenda. Many will say it falls short; others will call it a good start.
• Rell will make “living within our means” her philosophy for the 2007 Legislative session. If the Democrats launch any major spending initiatives look for her to fight them.
• The State GOP will continue to wallow in isolation and irrelevance. It will launch few bold or noteworthy initiatives. Those plans that it does announce will be like Andrew Roraback’s trans-fat ban, no one will care and even if it goes anywhere it will amount to nothing.
• Andrew Roraback/Mark Boughton/David Cappiello will start gearing up to challenge Chris Murphy. Rob Simmons will announce in the mid-spring that he is running again against Joe Courtney. Andrew MacDonald/Evonne Klein will challenge Chris Shays. By summer the 2nd, 4th, and 5th Congressional District races will all have declared challengers.
• Republicans might make a few small gains in municipal elections, but generally speaking there will be no major defeats or victories.
• Connecticut will receive a larger than usual amount of attention in the pre-primary from both GOP and Democratic presidential candidates.
• Dodd will putter along in the Democratic primaries. He’ll probably be out before or very shortly after New Hampshire’s primary.
• Lieberman will continue to piss off liberal Democrats everywhere.

Paul said...

Simmons basically announced when he blamed Courtney for his own leasdership's failure to pass a budget. He walked away from a mess and refuses to take any responsibility for it. What a putz.

Fuzzy Turtle said...

Nationally.. we will continue to operate as a country with no foreign policy.

Locally.. I will continue to read Ghengis Conn's blog, and while disagreeing with him 98% of the time, I will continue to respect his opinion :)

Colin said...

ummm, there seem to be a lot of 2007 predictions about who will do what in the primaries. are there primaries in 2007? did i miss a rules change? just asking.

Anonymous said...

No predictions, just a few hopes.

1) CT continues to fund the teachers' pension plan.
2) The car tax is eliminated or at least eliminated for high efficiency cars.
3) The increased conveyance tax is not discontinued.
4) The sales tax on electricity is eliminated.
5) Significant additional funds are used to buy open space.
6) Commuters agree to car pool with one another one day per month.

Nothing dramatic. Just a little progress.

Anonymous said...

1) Boughton will emerge as the challenger to Murphy.
2) Rell will get out and start building the GOP. It will be too little.
3) The Democrats will hold together in the Legislature. Spending will increase, public approval of the Dems will drop.
4) The dems will fail to address the problem of unfunded mandates.

Anonymous said...

1) It'll be tough for Republicans to make many gains in this municipal election year considering they already control most of the local top-offices throughout the state. I predict they lose a net 3, but hold their big ones in New Britain, Danbury, Norwalk and Middletown.

2) Rell will be undermined by a wave of staff discontent that will fuel news stories for the final month or two of the session. Moody and everything that comes with her will be brought up again..and again...and again.

3) Rowland will become an increasingly visible character in CT, making more speaking engagements and re-entering the real world.

4) Cappiello will announce that he's running for Congress--much to Boughton's chagrin. Either Tim Stewart or Jim Smith emerge as challengers as well. (If the torrington mayor were old enough, i'm sure he'd run too)

5) Dems in the state legislature trip all over themselves, as their leadership proves inept at marshalling the competing interests within such large majorities--leaving the state dissatisfied with them and the governor...setting the table for a decent republican year in 2008.

Anonymous said...

Lieberman will denounce GOP legislators as "partisan polarizers" as they call for withdrawal for Iraq. Melts down, stomping feet on Senate floor.

Anonymous said...

On Friday Nancy Wyman announced that the Unfunded Liability for State Employee Retirement health Care is $21 Billion.
Happy New Year Connecticut Taxpayers!!!

Anonymous said...


1.Andrew Roraback runs for Congress in 5th CD in 2008

2.Ryan Bingham has a rematch with Former Mayor Owen Quinn and wins by 50 votes in Torrington.

3. The Democratic Party's 6 year reign will end in the Town of Washington with the defeat of Two Term Democratic 1st Selectman Richard Sears. He will be replaced by GOP Board of Education Member Valerie Andersen who lost to him in 2005.

4.Ryan Bingham will run for State Senator in the 30th SD if Roraback wins the Nomination in the 5th CD joining his Mother Anne who is State Rep in the 65th.

5.Litchfield County Democrats will not join up with Democracy for America and that chapter will fold its tent in 2007.

No More Rowland or NJ not now not ever said...

John Rowland is a felon he will never hold an elective office ever again He will join Nancy Johnson on the Permanently DONE and Retired List in Connecticut.

Weicker Liker said...

You are incorrect about John Rowland.

Rowland could reapply for his voting rights - through his local registrar of voters - once he completes the conditions of his federal sentence.

Once he gets his voting rights back, he can run for office again.

Anonymous said...

Oops My Mistake!!! thanks for correcting me.