Friday, November 11, 2005

Last Election 2005 Poll

Check out the new poll on the sidebar beneath the maps. Apart from Jarjura's historic win in Waterbury, what was the biggest surprise of the night? I picked a lot of the bigger stories that people are likely to have heard about, but if there was something else, pick "other" and post about it here!

25 comments:

ctblogger said...

I found it very interesting that Malloy only won by 51 percent while DeStefano won by a landslide.

If you can't win solid in your own city, how are you going to win statewide. If Malloy wins the Democratic nomination, expect this to be the theme from the Republicans next year.

Genghis Conn said...

That's the big question right now, ctblogger. Check out the comment thread in the this earlier post to see the Malloy campaign's response.

ctblogger said...

Just read it and I'm amazed with their response.

In politics, nothing is more important than your homebase (which is REALLY why Gore lost in 2000). If you can't pull a solid victory on your home turf, you have a real problem.

It's a sign of weakness and believe me, DeStefano and the Republicans are going to use Malloy's slim margin of victory to their advantage (at least that's what I would do if I was a campaign manager).

If DeStefano's team was wise, they would look over the numbers and find out why Malloy did so poorly and then use the information they gather to their advantage and attack Malloy hard. This would make Malloy a non-factor and lock up the Democratic nod for DeStefano by maybe Jan-Feb 2006. Then they can go into 2006 concern over how to deal with Rell's popularity rather going into 2006 wasting money, time and energy on Malloy (which only helps Rell's team).

Malloy is in real trouble right now and with this slim margin of victory, I don't know why people would donate to his campaign. I think with DeStefano's margin of victory and his attack on Rell (DVD), he's looking like the frontrunner and is going to rake in the cash at this point.

Dave Mooney said...

I just dug into the Stratford results a little bit and found more good news for Democrats. Read it here...

Anonymous said...

Despite what is being tagged as 'weakness' with a small margin of victory, Malloy's fundraising has not suffered from any lapse according to sources in this camp.

TrueBlueCT said...

So the money is pouring into Malloy's coffers this week?

Gimme a break.

What is really happening is lots of internal discussions about who fucked up and how, and where does the campaign go from here...

My bet is that Malloy for Governor coasts through the holiday season, after which higher-ups in the Dem Party start suggesting he withdraw his candidacy. No one wants to see a bloody primary, and 51% is more writing on the wall.

ctkeith said...

I suggest a pool for the date Malloy pulls out of the race.

Farrell got almost twice the votes Malloy did(23k Farrell to 12k Malloy)

Stamford nearly rejected Malloy.

If he can't generate any love at home why should we expect him to generate any outside of his house.

Johnny Quest said...

My my... listen to the Destefano fanboys rant.

The fact is Malloy turned out MORE votes than your hero in New Haven, and a LARGER PERCENTAGE of his Dem base.

I understand Destefano trying to tout his 70% victory, but to attack Malloy on this point is stupid when anyone informed (Read: not the campaign staff and other sycophants becoming all too common on this board) knows that Stamford and New Haven are apples and oranges, and that Destefano had NO RACE to run, accept against himself.

The truth of the matter is, this whole thing is of little consequence a year out.

route 34 said...

There is no doubt that New Haven and Stamford are apples and oranges. But if it is such a non-issue, why did malloy have to send out the reassuring email to his supporters?

To me, the difference in the numbers does not make a huge difference. But Johnny, to say people are uninformed, then make a comment about the voter turnout in New Haven makes you sound a little dumb. Anyone that follows politics knows that turning your supporters out in an uncontested race is extremely difficult, especially in an off year such as this one.

Also, if you take a look at Malloy's email, he points out that Democrats outweight Republicans 1.5 to 1. Why did the voting results in Stamford not mirror this? Either the Republicans got more of their people out, Dan didn't get enough of his people out, or the middle of the roaders went for Munger. Whatever the reason was, it doesn't look good and I can't imagine why his campaign manager would put those numbers in the email thinking nobody would do the math.

Adrianna said...

Truth, admittedly, is hard to detect, but the stench of falshood lingers long and heavy.

It stinks in here.

Anonymous said...

Adrianna,

or maybe

1 the truth hurts

2 you need a shower.

Man in the Middle said...

I picked other, because Meriden, arguably a Democratic stronghold, knocked out it's last 3 Republicans for a complete sweep. One was a diehard on the Council for 16 years, another was a moderate with a long family history of solid Republicanism, and the third was a populist in the worst way. At any rate, it will be interesting to see how a totally Democratic mid-size city works in the next 2 years.

As to Malloy and DeStefano, it would be better for the challengers to focus on issues rather than vote tallies, or the ultimate nominee will suffer the fate of their predecessors of the last 25 years as Rell just laughs. The Dems deserve better...

Julio Gonzalez said...

I think the fascination with the Malloy margin comes from the fact that he almost LOST. Sure, the Elm City and Stamford are not politically identical and thus comparisons are strained. Granted. But Malloy almost LOST...that's what intrigues people.

The DeStefano folks seemed to have moved on though. If you look at Aldon's latest blog post, it is about how they encouraged their close supporters to help volunteer across the state to help other Dems. Seems like the kind of party-building we need more of.

I think the DeStefano team HAS worked to point out the contrasts on economic policy vision with Gov. Rell - from tax reform, to the scale of transporation investment, to the budgeting of higher education. And they recently announced a formiddable team of health care advisors that are helping formulate the DeStefano health care approach.

But at this point, a lot of reporters and political observers prefer the money and endorsement races, as well as things like Cranegate, over focused examination of policy statements. We'll get there soon enough.

DeanFan84 said...

Yes, the salient factor is that Malloy almost LOST. When I tuned in to election results, I never would have imagined that it would have been so close in Stamford. Certainly you would think Stamfordites would be pushing for Dan, as an ascendancy to Governor would be beneficial to their municipality. Do Stamford people know something about their hometown Mayor that the rest of us are yet to pick up on?

CTKeith--
My bet is February 9th or 10th. DLC Dan will survive through the Super Bowl. After that, he is toast, what with the Q4 numbers being released and all that.

Finally, my love to JOHNNY QUEST. Obviously you and the Malloy camp wish you hadn't had a real race to run. And you must regret that you failed so miserably. But the rest of us took notice, and outside of admitting your failures you have no place to either RUN or HIDE.

"Apples and Oranges", whatever! For a Democrat who claims to play so well to the middle, a 51% win says but one thing-- "Get out now, and leave the heavy lifting to the heavyweights!" Malloy's street cred in his hometown is marginal at best. What makes Dan think he has what it takes to win statewide?

BDRubenstein888 said...

Anyone wishing to bet on DLC DAN to take the convention endorsement and/or the impending primary please contact me and put your money where your mouth is...

Anonymous said...

Okay. My vote wasn't for Malloy's squeaker. Anyone watching that race knew it was going to be close.

The result that intrigues me is the Selectman's race in Thomaston. State Rep John Piscopo got clobbered by the Dems. First time he's ever lost a race.

Aldon Hynes said...

Various thoughts on the subject:

I work for DeStefano and live in Connecticut. I disagree with Anonymous. Most people I spoke with in Stamford expected Malloy to win fairly comfortably, not a sweep, but no a squeaker either. Munger was a last minute candidate who had not run before. However he did have a great presence in lawn signs, did well with police issues, and managed to get some surprise key labor endorsements. Munger did better than expected. It isn’t clear if that is because Munger ran a strong campaign, or that Malloy’s support was weaker than supposed.

Julio is right, the fascination is because Malloy almost lost. This fascination is amplified by the fact that Knopp of Norwalk, one of the folks who endorsed Malloy, actually did lose. As of this writing, 17% of the people responding to the poll found was the biggest surprise.

As to a pool on when Malloy pulls out of the race, because of where I live and who I work for, I’m staying out of this. However, I would suggest that people interested in participating in the poll read the description of the election process that John Nussbaum put up on his campaign site.

As a summary, in January, the Democratic Town Committees will elect their new membership. Then in late March, the town committees will select delegates to the State Convention. The State Convention takes place in May. It will be interesting to see how any of these events relate to pressure on Malloy to drop out.

All of that said, as fascinating as all the horserace aspects are, I do agree with Man in the Middle, that we need to focus on the issues. The only issue Rell seems to be focusing on is that she isn’t Rowland. Meanwhile, Mayor DeStefano is spending his time talking about job growth, college tuition, property taxes and health care.

Anonymous said...

I just wanted to comment on what Truebluect said "higher-ups in the Dem Party start suggesting he withdraw his candidacy"

Now the question I would have is two fold:

1. Who are these mysterious 'higher-ups' on the Democratic Party?

2. What gives them the right to tell anyone to get out of the race? It certainly isn't the "domination" of Connecticut Gov politics, I mean I was in grade school when we last had a Dem in the corner office.

Anonymous said...

"Anyone that follows politics knows that turning your supporters out in an uncontested race is extremely difficult, especially in an off year such as this one."

This quote from Route 34 is truly LOL funny. This was the one race John DeStefano and the Dem machine in New Haven needed to turn-out Dems -- to send a full blown message across the state that he had the full support of his base --and they couldn't do it. The New Haven Democratic Town Committee -- led by Susie Voigt -- chair and DeStefano groupie extraordinare, given their stronghold on politics in New Haven should have been able to do a much better job and were unable to pull Dems out in force to show their support for Mayor DeStefano and his plans for Governor. I think that says A LOT about the DeStefano so called "base of support" -- and that perhaps all is not as they would have you believe in New Haven.

DeanFan84 said...

Um, Anonymous--

Here in New Haven there was no GOTV effort. None. What would be the point? "C'mon team, let's show them how well we stack up against our opponents. Whoops! What opponent?"

I don't know if you are a Malloy staffer, or a Republican troll, but what you put forward is pitiful. If ever there were a true challenge to Mayor DeStefano, New Haven voters would turn out in droves, to support him. John is the best Mayor we've ever had, and the entire city knows that. (Which isn't to say that I haven't lodged a protest vote against him on one or two occasions.)

I can't believe how hard the Malloy camp is working to deflect attention from their near defeat. The easiest and obvious answer would be a simple admission that their focus was elsewhere, and they misjudged Munger's appeal and resonance. Far better than trying to "spin" their failure. fwiw.

Aldon Hynes said...

It seems as if the DeStefano campaign got a pretty strong majority without doing any GOTV in New Haven. It is interesting to wonder what sort of majority it would have been if they had tried to get out the vote. If we had of thought that the Stamford race was going to be so close, or that it would make a real difference if we got 86% of the vote instead of only 76% of the vote, may be our strategy would have been different.

However, to those of us in the DeStefano campaign it was more important to build up the Democratic party across the State. That is why we fanned out across the state to get out the vote in races that were much closer.

Anonymous said...

DeanFan84,

When were these protest votes lodged. In a previous post you claimed to be a recent New Haven transplant. You said you didn't live here for the 2001 Looney primary.

If your handle indicates your age, then you haven't been able to vote that often?

DeanFan84 said...

Hey anon--

Get a handle if you want to converse. And understand "84" is a lot of elections.

For the record, I was here for the 1993, 1995, 1997, 1999 DeStefano elections. In 1999, I was unhappy with some of the goings on, and definitely cast a protest vote for Jim Newton. Regarding earlier elections, it is hard to remember exactly. So many New Haven elections are uncontested, (like this last one), -- they generally aren't that memorable.

I am one of those who has never really liked the single party dynamics of New Haven politics. But several years ago, I made my peace, and I quit blaming DeStefano for that which is bigger than all of us. It helps that John made significant changes to the way that he did business. Enough that Paul Bass of the New Haven Advocate even gave him a reluctant nod in the 2001 contest.

average joe said...

BOTH candidates in the o6 Democratic Primary race have some big hurdles to overcome, but the poll does highlight two very good Democratic issues to seize upon. Jobs is an issue that Rell has trouble with.

DeStefano has a good record with helping to foster good paying jobs. In Stamford, the wages MUST be a little higher just to survive.

I do hope that both candidates strike out on the issue of job creation and raising wages.

I am curious to have more info on the poll, especially in the CD breakdown in the cross-tabs. The 2nd CD must have been yammering for new good jobs--that's where the race can and will be won or lost for the Dems--in the 2nd CD.

average joe said...

BOTH candidates in the o6 Democratic Primary race have some big hurdles to overcome, but the poll does highlight two very good Democratic issues to seize upon. Jobs is an issue that Rell has trouble with.

DeStefano has a good record with helping to foster good paying jobs. In Stamford, the wages MUST be a little higher just to survive.

I do hope that both candidates strike out on the issue of job creation and raising wages.

I am curious to have more info on the poll, especially in the CD breakdown in the cross-tabs. The 2nd CD must have been yammering for new good jobs--that's where the race can and will be won or lost for the Dems--in the 2nd CD.