Wednesday, January 11, 2006

Lieberman May Run as Independent if Defeated in Primary

From the Waterbury Republican-American:

He then added, in response to a question, that if he were to lose a primary he would still seek re-election.

"I intend to be on the ballot in November," he declared. (Krechevsky)

...Well, given that he's stronger among Republicans and independents than Democrats, that isn't surprising.

ConnecticutBlog, My Left Nutmeg and Daily Kos all seem to think this points to Lieberman's fear that he could, in fact, lose the primary.

But how likely is it that he could lose? A Dkos commenter pointed to Larson's loss in 1994 as proof that party-backed candidates could be defeated by grassroots liberal organizing. In fact, Lamont (if it's him) would be going after essentially the same voters as Curry did.

Still, Larson wasn't particularly popular, and Curry had been running for more than a year before the primary that year. Lamont would be starting from zero against a well-known, apparently well-liked incumbent five months before the convention, and eight months before the primary. The odds are not good.

That isn't to say Lamont shouldn't run. He should. I don't agree with Scott McLean from Quinnipiac that it's hopeless to run against Lieberman. A significant minority of Democrats want an alternative to Lieberman, and dedicated minorities can, in fact, win primaries. Bad starting odds don't an impossible race make.


Krechevsky, David. "Lieberman says he's ready to fight for Senate seat." Waterbury Republican-American 11 January, 2006.


Franks said...

In a August primary, which no one in CT has run, voter turnout is huge unknown. If it's less than and average September contest, an active opposition candidate has a better chance.

Genghis Conn said...

There's every reason to think that August will see a smaller turnout (slow month, unusual date), but two high-profile primaries may turn that around.

I have to wonder what effect a Senate primary would have on the gubernatorial primary. Might help DeStefano.

Franks said...

Distracting attention away from the Governor's race hurts both Malloy, DeStefano and democrats, so a Senate primary can't be helpful. Do DM & JDS endorse Lieberman? What harm would the competition for campaign money and paid media do to their election efforts?

Anonymous said...

Give it up! Lieberman will not lose. You are all wasting your time and you know it.

Blue in CD2 said...

Ok, so this is wierd.

Yesterday, John Destefano's campaign Press Release about his 4th Quater Contributions said "DeStefano raised $251,063 this quarter".

As of 2 minutes ago C.F.I.S. was displaying his total contrib. amount as "$249,278.72"

Where did that $1784 go? Dont tell me they posted thier numbers without double checking thier math, that would be absurd!

Anonymous said...

A little Birdie I know has a call in to Nancy DiNardo at State Central fo a comment.

Will the state party genuflect to Joe or are they really a political party?

Chris MC said...

Frank -
There have been August primaries, we had them last year. Turnout wasn't that different from September. But not statewide ones, if that's what you meant.

Of course, what we really need is June primaries, but the legislature won't go near it, because they'd be stuck in session while their opponents were out eating their lunch.

Chris MC said...

And CFIS really sucks. And it's indefensible that it sucks. Really.

Franks said...

Chris Mc,

I was speaking to the suggested Lieberman challenge, local races are more personal and involved. Lamont's chances are probably very slim, but Lieberman will have to take it seriously and eleven months is a long time.

Independent1 said...

CFIS was known (in 2002) to change numbers all the time. All of the candidates were scared to death, but the thing sucked so bad for everyone that no one could tell if it was a campaign problem or a CFIS problem. With four years passed, you'd think SB would have gotten around to fixing the thing. Guess it's too much to expect when she's too busy running for Gov ooops, I mean AG, ooops, I mean Sec State

Chris MC said...

Is it too late for fun New Year's predictions?

Senator Joe Lieberman, after a stunning convention loss by the narrowest of margins, stalks out and immediately holds a press conference on the very threshhold of the Democratic State Convention, declaring the formation of A Joe Party. "Even as I stand before you today, my minions are coaxing the CFIS system to file the necessary paperwork for A Joe Party." Reporters gape as Joe's eyes glow red. Nobody points out that it has to be federal paperwork unless he's running for Governor.

CTKeith and a small band of taunting lefties who've pursued Joe from the hall, spontaneously combust when Joe turns his gaze upon them.

Just then, in a small town not far from Jerusalem, armed conflict breaks out, and all over the south and west, people mysteriously vanish, Leaving the rest of us Behind.

Meanwhile, the Sith Lord Gallo oversees completion of his war room: the most advanced campaign office ever in Rocky Hill, which he ominously calls his "fully operational Death Star".

The summer sees the most expensive Senate race per capita in US history.

MoveOn supporters are bussed in from every corner of the country and paid a small stipend to wait outside every registered voter's house armed with iPods running videos precisely tuned to each individual's carefully studied preferences and prejudices.

Nevertheless, it is tough to hold people's attention, what with the Olympics and the Rapture and all.

My bottom line: in a three way race, Lieberman 40, [unnamed moderate R] 31, Lamont 29.

Oh yeah, and Jodi Rell is the Queen of Narnia.