Here are mine:
- The governor's race will be decided by less than ten percentage points--probably more like five. The race is going to be a very nasty one, decided in the last few weeks of the campaign.
- One of the three Republicans in Connecticut's congressional delegation will lose his/her seat: the other two will win.
- Democrats will pick up seats, nationally, but not take back the House. The Senate might be in play.
- The Democratic majority in both houses of the General Assembly will shrink, but only slightly.
- Kevin Sullivan will be on the statewide Democratic ticket in some capacity: maybe even as Lt. Governor.
- Joe Lieberman will easily win another term.
- There won't be a Democratic gubernatorial primary. The nominee will be clear by May.
Remember, these are just predictions! You can throw them in my face in November. What do you all think is going to happen in the new year?
53 comments:
Prediction: If Lisa Moody stands before a judge -- and people who've seen Morano's file are saying she might -- then the Governor loses re-election. It's that simple.
GC,
First, this feels very McGlaughlin Groupesque.
I agree with all of your predictions except I expect - there will be a Democratic primary. What does either candidate have to lose from it? That being said, I think DeStefano is edging closer and closer to getting the nod. He just seems to be out there more than Malloy.
I also think the governors race will becoming a closer affair sooner rather than later.
And my finanl prediction, Dick Blumenthal will announce he is not running for governor...in 2010..2014..or 2018 by the fall of 2006 but will leave the door open to a 2022 run
Come on GC ,Have a little imagination.
My Predictions,
1) Joe Lieberman will not appear anywhere on the 06 Ballot
2)all 5 Ct house seats will be won by Democrats.
3) dick cheney will resign as VP after being indicted along with Karl Rove by Fitzy.
4) John McCain will replace Cheney and Joe Lieberman will in every public appearence say "my good freind John McCain is now VP" at least 10 times.
5)Rush Limbaugh, upon hearing McCain will be appointed VP,has his asspimple explode killing him,Sean Hannity and Michael Reagan.
More tommorrow
1.By 11/06 the Dems find flogging Lisa Moody is the least effective campaign tactic thee've tried since 1990
2. DeStefano vies with Kennelly for least effective Dem in a two way Gov race. Rell wins over 150 of the 169 towns
3. With US forces and casualties on the decline, Iraq is a nonissue. Tagged as the "failure party", Dems actually do a 1998 and lose ground in a second term midterm election.
4. The press spins the implosion of the NYS GOP as a big event and ignores the other 49 states. They also focus on the one or two GOP numbnuts who lose due to personal scandal (which happens every cycle).
4. GOP gains in the General Assembly include at least one future gubernatorial candidate.
5. Nancy Johnson is the new Ways and Means Chairman.
6. Howard Dean steps down as DNC Chairman and records a rap CD with Kanye West.
I agree with everybody. It's very likely nobody will deal with the issues facing the average CT citizen.
Who is the average Connecticut citizen?
Is it me or is it you?
What a fun thread. Let me make a few preliminary comments before my predictions. First and foremost, these are very much my own predictions and while they are influenced by what I hear from many sources, they do not reflect positions or talking points from any groups I am involved with, in particular, the DeStefano campaign or any possible U.S. Senate candidates.
I will also note that while I am trying to post something about what I really expect to happen and to shy away from posting something too kool-aid induced, there will probably be a certain amount kool-aid induced hopefulness in my post.
Near term: The Moody affair will continue to damage Rell, but not as substantially as some Democrats hope. Rell will continue to slip in popularity as people start learning more about her and see that other than being nice and grandmotherly, there really isn’t much there. Vance will be pressured to drop out of the 5th CD race but will hold on as long as he thinks it helps his longer term visibility. Democrats will gather behind the scenes and in trying to figure out what to do about the U.S. Senate race.
In New Haven, the battle to become head of the board of alderman remains heated and some unexpected surprises turn up. I have no idea what they will be, but it seems like some sort of surprises just have to happen.
May: The Democratic State Convention will be exciting. Malloy and DeStefano will still both be in the race. DeStefano will clearly be ahead and there will be pressure for Malloy to drop out and endorse DeStefano. There will be discussions about a deal whereby Malloy would run for Lt. Governor. Others will say that having two Mayors on the ticket is the best and will be lobbying for a Lt. Governor candidate from the 5th CD. I will not make guesses at who the Lt. Governor will be. Many people will see that it will be an exciting convention and become more involved in the party, starting with DTC caucuses in January.
By the convention, a clear Democratic challenger to Lieberman will emerge. It will be an exciting convention and Lieberman’s nomination is not clear. There will be pressure for Lieberman to step aside. A primary is likely, and this might encourage Malloy to stay in the race after DeStefano wins the nomination.
In the end, DeStefano will win the Democratic nomination, at the convention, and if necessary, in a primary. Lieberman will think seriously about if he should run for re-election based on the results of the convention. If he does, he will narrowly win the primary but easily win the general. If he doesn’t, the General will be much closer, but the Democrats will still end up easily winning.
For Congress, Farrell and Courtney both win. Farrell will win by a wider margin than expected. Courtney’s victory will be narrower. Johnson narrowly hangs on. The race for Governor is heated but stays civil. DeStefano slowly and surely builds up wide support and defeats Rell by a much wider margin than people thought would happen.
There are no substantial changes in the Constitutional officers, the State House or the State Senate. There will be a few exciting new faces in the State House due to the Young Dems encouraging new candidates.
Blogging ends up playing a larger and larger role in all of the campaigns, especially the Young Dems races. People learn to be more civil on the blogs.
Anon9:26a I predict that the issues will be dealt with in places set up for them, such as candidate debates and public speaking events. They won't be discussed much in blogs or in TV commercials. I also predict that blogs that spend a lot of time looking at the inside baseball aspects of politics will continue to talk more about handicapping races and not about the issues.
Anon9:26b I predict that there will be great efforts to find out who the average Connecticut Citizen is. After much research it will be revealed that the average Connecticut Citizen doesn't read this blog, or any blogs and that I am about as far as you can get from being an average Connecticut Citizen. However, it will also be revealed that the average Connecticut Citizen ends up knowing someone who blogs, talking with them and being influenced by these discussions.
Two out of three of the (real) Congressional races in CT will be so close they will require recounts -- and in the end, Nancy Johnson and Rob Simmons will be out of a job.
I agree there will be no primary for Governor -- but there is NO WAY Kevin Sullivan ends up on the ticket at any level. He brings absolutely nothing to the table. Instead, he strikes a deal with the nominee to get some plum job if the Dems win.
If Lisa Moody gets convicted and sentenced in a nasty proceeding within 45 days of the election, Rell has a problem. If not, the people of CT continue to believe that Rell is squeaky clean, even if she happens to live in an ethical pig sty, and Moody-gate only loses her about one point.
Aldon: from Anon(a): wouldn't it be nice if the average citizen influenced the bloggers and then the bloggers influenced the politicians. I'm not by any means criticizing this blog, which provides fantastic insight. It's just sad the government is so removed from the people and the politicians tend to blame that on the people instead of taking it on themselves to get out and etc.,etc.
OK, now its time for a prediction from a Republican...get your bats out once again!
In the Governor's race, Rell/Stewart coast to a 12 point victory over DeStefano in a hard fought campaign on both sides.
(Read the rest of my post before starting my beating please)
Dems hold all the constitutional offices, AGAIN.
Joe defeats Weicker and a Republican to be named at a later date in a 3 way race for senate.
Simmons loses to Courtney, Shays barely beats Farrell again (she takes him 2008), Nancy wins easily and Republicans hold on to the majority in the House and Senate...National Dems still have no message and still arent marching to the beat of the same drummer and for that reason will not win either back.
No surprises in the House and Senate as Dems hold on to clear majorities in both with no major upsets.
Now, with that said...let my flogging begin!
In '06:
Rell crushes DeStefano in a general election after DeStefano squeeks past Malloy.
Bill Curry enters the 5th CD race to play spoiler, Nancy Johnson and her 3 million dollar war chest buries all comers.
Courtney upsets Simmons, Shays keeps his seat in a walk and the State Democrats keep the majority- although in keeping with the local election trend, the lead shrinks.
National Senate Republicans gain 3 more seats, Maryland, Minnesota, and Washington, and lose one, Penn, bringing their total to 57.
National House Republicans lose a couple of seats, but not from Connecticut.
Rell wins by default, DeStafeno too creepy for CT voters.
State legislative democrats raise billions from the special interests they failed to curtail in sham campaign ‘reform’ legislation, holding and increasing their majorities.
All 5 Congressional incumbents win.
Rell wins too, but thanks to Lisa Moody it will be close (Earth to Jodi, you better fire her!) Simmons and Rell inundate air waves with sub base saving ads (yes a real issue) and people fall for it. In response to the Simmons sub base ads, Courtney will try to pin Simmons with Tom Delay...Yeah, that will work.
Democrats will continue to use the failed strategy of Bill Curry, Al Gore and John Kerry by refusing to talk issues and instead will focus their campaigns on how bad the incumbent is.
When pressed for an issue Destefano and/or Malloy will talk about property tax relief yet (like ever Democrat in the history of Connecticut politics)they will refuse to provide details, leaving voters scracting their heads.
The General Assembly will stay about the same. House Republicans might pick up a seat or two but that will be by pure luck (and because a lot of "intelligent" Dem voters will stay away because not being a Presidential election year they don't realize there is an election). Bob Ward will be re-elected as HR leader thus guaranteeing further Republican losses in '08.
Dems pick up seat in Senate. Repubs win Murphy seat, Dems take out 1 incumbent and take an open seat.
Yes Kevin Sullivan will be the Dems Lt. Gov. pick.
That's reality folks!!!
Bill Curry is not running for Congress. Instead, for the first time in literally decades we have a REAL challenger for Johnson: Chris Murphy, a sitting State Senator with a strong base and a record of winning tough elections as a challenger. Bill is a good guy, and he's been important to the progressive movement in this state. But he's not a viable candidate for Congress right now and HE'S NOT RUNNING. Ask him point-blank, and I bet he will tell you that. Let's get past this stupid rumor about Curry and start paying attention to the real race in the 5th, which is going to take a lot of people by surprise.
Sorry, Anon (10:50am), despite your disagreement, Bill Curry has told some people that he has not ruled it out and has looked at some polling numbers for the 5th CD. Call it a baseless rumor if you would like, but it is out there in Hartford circles.
Additional comments:
In my first section I didn’t mention Kevin Sullivan. I know a bunch of people that don’t really like him, but I don’t know the details. Other than here, and from time to time on Colin McEnroe’s blog, I don’t hear much about Kevin. I don’t see him playing a big role.
Anon(a): I absolutely agree with you on how it would be great if the government were less removed from the people and if blogs could help bridge that gap. I remain hopeful that this can happen, but I do expect it is going to be a slow change by both ‘the average citizen’ and the politicians.
disgruntled_republican: No need for bats. You have a good post. We disagree on many of the predictions but your predictions are as reasonable as mine and I think you raise an important issue of how clear a message will the Democrats be able to produce.
"Instead, for the first time in literally decades we have a REAL challenger for Johnson"
????????
Hello?? Congressman Jim Maloney-- the last CT Democrat to defeat an incumbent Republican congressperson (Rep. Gary Franks)--I think he would be considered a "real" challenger to Johnson.
Anon(11:06) -- If Curry is telling "people" in "Hartford circles" that he has not ruled out a run, it's because he's enjoying the attention that this rumor is getting him, or because he's posturing himself for something. If it wouldn't drag this nice blog inappropriately into online gambling, I'd bet you $100 that he's not running. Now, if he's letting this rumor survive just because he misses the spotlight, he should be ashamed of himself. There is already a candidate running against Johnson, and anyone who cares about beating her will get out of the way.
As a non-Republican, I think Disgruntled Republican's predictions come closest to mine!
No one will pick Kevin Sullivan as a running mate - he annoys everyone and has no base. I don't believe Curry would run, but if he did, any remaining good will towards him would evaporate. Both of these guys had their day and need to move on.
To say Sullivan had his day is ridiculous. He lost his job leading the state senate because of the Rowland resignation. If people don't like him that's too bad but wouldn't it be nice if we had somebody that did something because he beleived in it and not because he was in poilitics to make friends.
Aldon-
Why shouldn't blogs be an expanded place to discuss specific policy issues? I think it should be encouraged, not discouraged in favor of listening to lackluster candidate debates on TV and going to pre-written candidate stump speeches.
Anyone debater worth their weight in gold should be able to debate the finer points of the issue of the day on good blogs such as this. Sure, not everyone is ready or willing to discuss specific issues, but this is exactly the type of place where issues (not personalities) should be discussed.
Anonymous,
If you're looking for someone who stands for Democratic principles, you'll have to look beyond Kevin Sullivan. He and Moira Lyons were a fearful, cringing opposition who routinely caved to Rowland and spent more time trying to bend the more progressive rank and file to Rowland's will than they did trying to articulate Democratic views or rally the public. The budget process was a public joke - in reality, the budget was whatever the two of them worked out with Marc Ryan and was stuffed down the throats of the rank and file at 1 a.m. Whatever faults Amann and Williams have, they are a breath of fresh air in comparison.
Can we get back to the predictions folks...lets have some fun reading opinions instead of breaking thewm all down...c'mon, lets have some fun.
Anon Murphy supporter, your arrogance does not work well here in the 5th. you only hinder your cause when you insult past johnson opponents, speciffically jim maloney who not only was the last dem challenger to beat an incumbent repub, but also the last dem to win a targeted race when he beat nielsen in '00 by double digits. if you dont consider him to be a REAL challenger, i question your political knowledge.
proud moderate dem...
I do agree he is formadible but you have to realize, he got smoked!
Who are some darkhorse Dem Lt. Gov choices?
Can't buy Sullivan as the Lt Gov candidate. He brings nothing to the ticket except the West Hartford vote (!!) and neither democratic candidate can run trying to blame Rell alone for all the problems. No matter how hard he tries to avoid it, the Dem candidate will to some degree drag the democratic legislature into the mix and by implication Sullivan's long term in leadership. My prediction for a running mate assuming (but not presuming) it's a legislator would be DeFonzo given the perception that he's a corruption reformer.
Murphy's base? The towns that he represents are tepid for him.
Gene Parmesean asks, Why shouldn't blogs be an expanded place to discuss specific policy issues?
I would love to see that happen. However I am dubious that it will for a couple reasons. First, I think an aweful lot of people don't care a lot about specific policy issues. Sure, they are frustrated about traffic, the high price of gas, finding a house they can afford, etc., but when you speak with them, very few are interested in talking about policies to address these issues.
At least that has been my experience. Have you found people that are interested in discussing issues?
If you have, I wonder how open they are to policy discussions. This gets to my second point. Too often, the only people that want to discuss policy issues seem to be so strident that they turn everyone else off. I know that is one of the reasons I try to avoid policy discussions.
(I also avoid them, at present in part, because some people might confuse my policy discussions, and my lack of proficency in them as being somehow indicative of the DeStefano campaign.)
As a final reflection, during the Dean campaign, I worked with a group trying to get issues discussions going. This was with some pretty bright policy wonks around the country, and the effort never really worked out, further leading to my believe that policy discussions don't work well in online environments.
I would be interested in hearing your thoughts and if there are ways to create online spaces that will encourage policy discussions.
This is frightening... I am finding another place where I am agreeing with disgruntled_republican! Let's get back to having some fun predicting 2006.
One part I would like to hear predictions on, which I need to stay out of, is who the Democratic Lt. Governor will be.
Darkhorses for lt gov
Rep. Roberta Willis
Former Congressman Jim Maloney
Mayor Mike Jarjura
Rep. Lewis Wallace
Aldon:
It's OK. Relax. Embrace your inner Republican.
It happens to a lot of guys ... They get older, they start to have families and money in the bank and real jobs ...
;-)
C'mon Aldon, we aren't all that different from what I have seen on issues, just I think my guys are the better people to get them done and you think your guys are.
I do not think Kevin Sullivan will get the nod but Jim Maloney intrigues me. Heres one for ya, although it may be far fetched...Harris runs for Lt. and Sullivan goes back to the Senate.
disgru Rep--
Love the thought process, unlikely but neat to think about.
How about Susan B for Lt. Gov, AG and Secretary of State?
A Different Anonymous and disgruntled_republican:
I appreciate the banter. You are both right. When you get right down to it I suspect an aweful lot of Republicans and Democrats agree on many issues and really only have minor differences on some of the details of how to address issues and who we think the best people for addressing these issues are.
I think that this sort of banter is very helpful in helping bring some civility back to the political process, get us to point where we can recognize the value of those in the other party, and even find new ideas that we can all embrace.
I hope some of the Republicans around here can also get in touch with their inner Democrat. ;-)
Anyway, back to the predictions...
prediction: CT will remain the land of steady habits and no imagination execpt maybe for same sex mariages and other Woodstock issues.
Jarjura is to the right of Andy Roraback, Bob Farr, Tony Gugliermo and Cathy Cook. If he gets the LG nod it will go over as well as Dukakis picking Bentsen. Worse perhaps, at least Lloyd gave us one night of great theatre even if he got crushed.
Aldon, disgruntled and Anon: So what do we do now, hold hands around a circle and sign "Kumbaya"?
Does anyone see an announcement about Moody's future in the gov's office coming late today/this weekend? Someone needs to step up to the plate and facilitate a get-together where we could all meet, share stories, and have a few drinks...preferably before the season gets really going where we'd be ripping off each others faces!
in the mood(ie): As the leftover hippie leftie here, I'm all for a rousing chorus of Kumbaya, followed by a group hug. Of course, I'm also up for a good evening of drinking as well. I've been trying to get bloggers together for drinks for a long time.
I could host down in Stamford, but I think something closer to the center of the state would be better. Usually, some place near 91 is a good choice, such as Meriden. Also Waterbury has been a good choice for other state wide gatherings I've been too.
Anyone else up for drinks?
I have never turned down a drink, and I pray I never will.
Especially if Aldon's buying.
No amount of liquor, however, will persuade me to sing "Kumbaya."
"Friends in Low Places," yes. "Kumbaya," no.
Ill have a beer with Aldon as long as it is a Coors
Rell brings "Blood and Guts" Chris Burnham back from DC for LG run.
DeStefano offers LG to Jim Maloney, but freak mistake at printers just before acceptance speech misreads the order slip and puts Malloy's name on placards. "I know, I know, Jim. But we don't have time to reorder them. And besides, they look so NICE..." Maloney forced to can what would have been the best convention speech ever in political history.
Rell/Burnham best DeStefano/Malloy by 7 points.
Moody stays; no charges. Pulls a Jim Baker and takes leave of absence/or steps down by June 1 to run campaign.
Simmons wins. Courtney realizes that his best shot was 02. Jimmy Sullivan cuts more Quiznos commercials. Susan B. realizes this wouldda been her time to run.
Shays wins. Farrell realizes that her best shot was 04. Malloy realizes that his turn will be 08, when Shays retires. Malloy squares off off with... and beats Lt. Governor Burnham. Eyes Senate.
Johnson wins. Murphy, if he can hold off the rest of the 5th cd, joins LEGIONS of others graying to await their chance at an open seat. (5th folded into 4th and 3rd after next redistricting, so it's a New Haven-dominated district anyway. Hello Congressman Cam Staples.)
Kevin Sullivan to the showers and gold watch. Wins it all on JEOPARDY later that year.
George Jepsen to the bench and a black robe. He's already in hiding and somebody's placing anonymous orders for X-Tall at "Judges-R-Us. Will make it to Federal Bench someday.
Both state party chairs featured on back of milk cartons by May.
Meanwhile at the Legislature:
Amann/Williams start session STRONG, but implode at end of session as House firebrands chafe at Senate's domination of agenda and hunger for pork spending. Rell ends session strong as the children bicker; lots of vetoes.
GOP picks up Murphy's vacant Senate Seat and maybe another, but remains in Minority; McKinney new leader. (Unless he is on Rell ticket, in which case DeLuca stays.)
House GOP picks up a couple of seats despite key veteran retirements, including Ward; Cafero new leader.
Ward becomes new Budget Chief or Chief of Staff for Rell.
Should a Democrat win Gov's chair, and anything funky happen with Dodd or Lieberman's careers (retirement, cabinet) NO. OTHER. DEMOCRAT. THAN. DeLAURO. WILL. HAVE. THAT. SENATE. SEAT.
Bill Curry is getting ready to enter the 5th District congressional race. I got polled by him and it is clear from the questions that he wants to jump in against Nancy Johnson. Curry is no dummy. He knows that if ex-Congressman Jim Maloney couldn't beat Johnson in a battle of the incumbents in 2002 then candidates like Chris Murphy and Paul Vance have no chance against Johnson. Everyone knows Vance and Murphy don't expect to win but just want to position themselves should Johnson retire in '08. But someone of Curry's stature at least could give Johnson a scare and, if the climate is right, might even have an outside chance of winning. If Curry is scared off by his own poll results, then Democrats don't stand a chance of beating Johnson. All but the diehards have written off the 5th District, but if Curry ran at least some Democrats would take a second look at the race.
the 5th District was Curry's worst district against Rowland and he ran 6 points behind Maloney's insufficient showing.
It this guy a glutton for punishment, or is he a sadist for wanting to keep punishing the voters instead of getting a real life?
anon2:56 - With folks like Rep. Larson, Rep. DeLauro, Rep. Emanuel, Former Congressman Moffett Former candidates Gerratana and Koskoff, and over half of the current DTC Chairs in the 5th CD endorsing Murphy, it is going to be incredibly difficult for anyone, even Bill Curry to get the nomination.
Bill Curry does not need to go through the Convention to be able to Primary Chris Murphy or Vance.
He can petition DIRECTLY to the Party Primary in August.
Needs signatures equalling 2% of the registered Democrats in the 5th CD.
Similiar to what Shawn McNally did in 2004.
Prediction: On the n ational level, the Abramoff lobbying scandal taints republicans in congress in much the same way the House Post Office scandal tarred and feathered democrats in 1994. The GOP loses control of the House and Pelosi becomes Speaker (I am not a democrat). The R's will, however, maintain control of the Senate, with a reduced majority. Here in Connecticut, Simmons will win re-election partly on the strength of the BRAC decision, Johnson beats Murphy by hair, inspite of her funding advantage, and she will make it her final term - Murphy wins in '08. Farrell beats Shays. Destefano trounces Malloy...and in a close and spritied general election Rell claims the center and paints Destefano as a pure lefty - she wins by a nose.
If the 5th CD is an open seat next time what makes people think that Jim Maloney wouldn't come back and reclaim his seat.
Weicker Liker:
While Curry could petition to get on a primary ballot, the way McNally did, given the amount of support Murphy has both from national and local figures, is that likely? And, how likely is it that he would win the primary?
When was the last time in Connecticut that a Democrat successfully primaried the parties choice for U.S. Congress?
Maloney is not an adamant enough antiwar, proabortion tree hugger for the Dems in the old 6th District towns in the new 5th....they'd actually want a Curry comeback
I have heard from some in the Democratic Party that Joe Lieberman may not run for re-election...The person told me he has his eyes on something new. Keep a watch
Greg
Lieberman runs and wins easily - as do all incumbent Congressional Reps.
Rell/Floren easily beat DeStefano/Mushinsky.
Kevin Sullivan falls further into irrelevance, except in Peoples Republic of West Hartford, where he continues to pull strings on Council with his protege mayor and his wife.
Senate R's pick up one seat, House D's pick up 2.
Lisa Moodie will not face charges (as she really committed no crime - it was the Commissioners who broke law) but will be strung along for a while as CSA Morano uses the investigation to try and (unsuccessfully) save his job, attempting to make his ouster appear like political retribution rather than the result of his blatant incompetence.
Campaign Finance reform bill struck down by courts, no meaningful agreement can be made and no election in state ever conducted under its provisions.
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