Tuesday, December 13, 2005

Lieberman Loses Some Ground

Ratings Fall Among Democrats, Liberals

SurveyUSA 100 Senators Approval Poll

Joe Lieberman's poll numbers appear to have suffered because of his pro-war, pro-Administration stance over the last few weeks, but probably not enough to make a challenge credible unless the downward trend continues.

Lieberman's overall approval fell five points from 68% in November to 63% now. This is well within his usual range, as a peek at the graph will show you. It shouldn't be much of a cause for concern in the Lieberman camp.

The interesting numbers are from what ought to be Lieberman's base: liberal Democrats. A survey of self-identifying liberals shows Lieberman's approval dropping from 68% in October to 52% now. This is significant movement. Disapproval of Lieberman among liberals went from 25% in October to 41% now.

Democrats have probably the most noticable movement, if not the largest. Lieberman lost ten points among Democrats from November to now. His approval ratings went from 69% to 59%, and disapproval went from 26% last month to 36% now. Before November, his approval among Democrats was steady in the high 60s and low 70s.

There is a slight drop in approval (68% to 63%) among unaffiliated voters, and a two-point drop among moderates. Lieberman's ratings among Republicans also dropped, but only two points from 71% to 69%. Lieberman is rated higher among Republicans than Democrats by ten percentage points.

So does this mean Lieberman is vulnerable? Maybe, but at this point it's very hard to say. Support for the senator is usually pretty solid, and any downward trend may indicate that he's starting to lose that support. However, his numbers are still strong, and his overall approval is within what seems to be his usual range.

But as the upcoming election and the possibility of a credible candidate running against him draw more of the public's attention, those numbers could suffer.

Check out the entire poll here.

15 comments:

MikeCT said...

I'll repeat the question I posed in the previous open forum - did anyone hear Lowell Weicker co-hosting the Colin & Bruce show today and hear any clear statements about running or not running? I did hear him expressing the desire for a Democrat to challenge Lieberman.

Lieberman-Weicker news roundup:

The Manchester Democratic Town Committee will go ahead at their January 3rd meeting with a vote to criticize Lieberman's support of the war. I hope this starts a trend.

Today, local members of Democracy for America delivered a petition to Lieberman's Hartford office challenging his support of Bush:
Jim Dean, the head of Democracy for America and brother of Howard Dean said Weicker is a great guy but the group is not ready to endorse anyone yet. "We don't rule out the possibility of endorsing anybody in any race," says Dean.

Keith Burris, Editorial Page Editor of the Journal Inquirer, calls for Weicker to run.

Last weekend, a group of people met to form a Draft Lowell Weicker campaign to encourage him to run as a Democrat.

Genghis Conn said...

So... who was in this "group of people?"

I did hear Weicker on Bruce and Colin, but I don't think he said anything definite. I didn't hear the whole show, though, so anything is possible. They mostly seemed to be talking about the war.

Anonymous said...

Considering the GOP senate candidate will make Bruce Morrison look like Ronald Reagan in vote getting potential, Lowell ought to think about his chances in a three way race where he is a liberal, Joe is a moderate, and the cosnervative candidate is ineffective.

Rowland couldn;t win in 1990 with 38%, and Weicker couldn;t in 2006 against Lieberman.

ctkeith said...

GC,

I was there and believe it or not your little webpage took up a good portion of the conversation.


I was the fay guy in
the backround with the balck coat,Cane(had my hip replaced 10/1/05)and the infamous Dump Joe "Kiss Button on.

I didn't get to see the news.Did I look cute?

ctkeith said...

GC,

Don't forget Joe's numbers were was in the Low 40s (Approval) in CT during the 04 primary season.

The more people see of "Joe the rat" the more his numbers go down.His Support is a mile wide and 1/16 of an inch deep.

Guess what sunshine does to puddles like that.

ctkeith said...

Sorry,
I meant fat not fay in my 1st post on this thread.

My fingers are fat too.

Chris MC said...

GC said:
The interesting numbers are from what ought to be Lieberman's base: liberal Democrats.

Why ought liberal Democrats be his base, exactly? The people you’re talking about probably voted Nader (in Connecticut) in ’00.

In any case, the movement in that slice of the populace is 100% related to his recent self-immolation in the name of bipartisanship on Iraq. And it confirms, in my view, that - as has been demonstrated ad nauseam on this blog – his base is somewhere near the center; and not on the left.

Lieberman is a franchise. His base is people who vote for Joe Lieberman. His, um, uneven results when he tried to extend that franchise in liberal bastions like Manchester, NH confirms that, in my view.

Despite the frothing at the mouth of some, the party is at worst 40% that far to the left. Throw in, what, 20% of the U’s and R’s who are similarly liberal? – and you have about the numbers reflected in the poll.

And, if Lieberman turns out to have been "prescient" (rather than too far ahead of the curve) when the substance of his position works its way into the vulgate, those numbers will mostly reverse course.

And that is why the rumors of Joe’s demise are so wildly overstated.

DeanFan84 said...

Chris Mc--

Ask honest Republicans, Independents, or even conservative Dems, -- Joe has the reputation of being a weasel.

Sure, he has done well by triangulating, but triangulating might well be the end of Lieberman.

No one trusts a Rat. And Joe is proving himself to be one. This isn't a left/right debate. Heck, Dodd's voting record is pretty much identical to Lieberman's. It's a matter of loyalty, and integrity. Joe isn't demonstrating much.

Has Joe made the mistake of tying himself closely to a growingly unpopular war? The Iraq Experiment is neither moderate, nor conservative. It is radical in nature. I hope it sinks our CT Neo-con.

P.S. As a Democrat, and former Dean person, how can you blog in defense of someone now more popular with R's than D's?

P.S.S. Can you tell us illeterati what is "the vulgate"? I looked that term up in the dictionary, and found out nothing.

CT05 Admin said...

vul·gate
n.

1. The common speech of a people; the vernacular.
2. A widely accepted text or version of a work.
3. Vulgate The Latin edition or translation of the Bible made by Saint Jerome at the end of the fourth century A.D., now used in a revised form as the Roman Catholic authorized version.
vulgate

DF84, can’t you please just STFU about Lieberman for awhile? No casual passerby here has any doubt about your point of view on the subject. You’re about as controversial as an operable case of hemorroids.

DF84 wrote:
P.S. As a Democrat, and former Dean person, how can you blog in defense of someone now more popular with R's than D's?


Former? In defense of?

Really, how can a college educated smart ass like you be this dim?

Go back and read my posts on the subject carefully. Particularly those that predate your own posts of the last coupla days.

See if you can get what I've written through your thick skull before you say anything else to me, please.

Chris MC said...

Again, full disclosure, CT05 Admin & Chris MC are the same guy. That was a typo.

Anonymous said...

wonder what How-weird 's borther and Lowell "I'm still relevant" Weicker said when the New York Times reported this in the am paper:

December 14, 2005
Election
Sunni Bastion Now Turning to Ballot Box
By EDWARD WONG
TIKRIT, Iraq, Dec. 13 - Along the main boulevard here in Saddam Hussein's hometown, hundreds of campaign posters have flowered where insurgents once tossed homemade bombs at American troops.

The guerrilla war found fertile ground in Tikrit, and defiant Sunni Arabs boycotted the elections in January.

But turnout in the parliamentary elections on Thursday is expected to be high, reflecting the shift in attitude of many Sunni Arabs toward the American-engineered political process.

"Last January, the elections were quite different than they are now," Wael Ibrahim Ali, 61, the mayor of Tikrit, said as he strode Tuesday along the grounds of the palace where Mr. Hussein used to celebrate his birthdays. "The people refused to vote, and now they see it was a wrong stand or wrong position."

This Sunni-dominated province of Salahuddin had a 29 percent turnout in January, one of the lowest in the country. In the past year, though, Sunni Arabs, who make up a fifth of Iraq's population, realized they had shut themselves out of the transitional government"

Maybe Joe knows more than the whiny critics?

(Oh, I forget, maybe making Iraqis sit through a Michael Moore movie would rid them of dictatorship, no need for Marines)

Anonymous said...

Yahoo!!

The one guy who provided every CT Dean supporter with the one thing they could all agree on,that being that he was a dick with a Napoleon complex, now has 2 user IDs here.

Genghis Conn said...

Here's a link to Colin McEnroe's observations about his time on the radio with Weicker yesterday.

The Definitive Lowell

MikeCT said...

Chris MC,

If Deanfan sometimes comes across as rude, you come across as rude, pompous, and now vulgar. Do you think this helps establish your credibility or that of the 5th CD site?

Everyone else,
I would encourage Genghis to delete any posts with vulgar language, abbreviated or not, and I'd encourage everyone else to keep to the issues. Visitors will not return to a site filled with vile language and childish personal attacks.

In other news - poor Joe can't catch a break. The day after Democracy for America delivered a pile of petitions about his position on the war to his office, he and most of the federal delegation will get another pile today from MoveOn.org members.

turfgrrl said...

The problem with Lieberman is not that he defends the position that the Iraq war is necessary and just. It's his indefensible position that criticism against that position is undermining the presidency. Apparently Lieberman doesn't believe in a healthy democracy, and that is a reason for dems of all stripes to to think carefully about supporting him. Lieberman has consistently chosen the path of a nanny-state government over individual rights.