Monday, December 19, 2005

Weicker Trails Lieberman in Rasmussen Poll

In the first poll released on a possible Weicker/Lieberman rematch, Weicker badly trails Lieberman 32% to 54%. Rasmussen Poll here.

However, Weicker's strongest support comes from liberals and Democrats. 37% of Democrats would vote for Weicker. The group in which Weicker comes closest to Lieberman is among self-described liberals, where Weicker trails the senator 40-44. Lieberman's strongest support comes from self-described conservatives, 62% of whom would vote for him instead of Weicker.

This sets up the intriguing possibility, suggested by Chris MC, of a three way race in which Weicker as an independent (he's not running as a Democrat) takes the liberal vote and a Republican candidate could take the conservative vote. Where does that leave Lieberman?

Lieberman's last two Republican opponents were nobodies, but each got around 34% of the vote. Lieberman won with a combination of moderate unafilliated voters and Democrats. What if the liberals in that group split off? If Weicker's numbers held in the 30s, and the Republican candidate got as much as the Republican candidate often does (30%-35%), then the race suddenly becomes one of the closest in the nation.

Republicans have promised a candidate. If Weicker does decide to run (and he has kind of boxed himself in, here, by saying that he would stay in if a credible anti-war candidate didn't appear), then we have a very interesting race brewing.

28 comments:

stomv said...

Interesting... and expensive... race.


The GOP will dump in money, hoping to "steal" a senate seat that they might be able to hold for another few 6 year cycles. The liberals will push for Weicker, as they're sick of Lieberman's pandering to the moderate-conservatives and the pro-war crowd. The Democrats will be stuck between a rock and a hard place; they could support Lieberman to try to hold onto the seat, or they could turn away and hope like hell that (a) Weicker wins, and (b) caucusses with the Dems.

Meantime, there'll be money flowing in from all directions.

Chris MC said...

I agree with you GC and stormv. Let me suggest this now: that's the inside-the-box scenario. But this would, as you both say, turn this into probably the hottest race in the country.

Now, I'm not a big-time political operative, but I imagine that this would have an interesting and very positive impact on Lieberman.

Rather than competing (with the latest Republican propaganda effort and "reality" shows) for a news cycle or two to get his face on TV and punch his message through, only to get lambasted from his left and co-opted on his right, Lieberman would have almost constant attention and a foil (two in fact) to put his point of view and record out there.

Seems to me this could be a real blessing in disguise for Lieberman.

MikeCT said...

Even Fox News has picked up on the race.

More Dem leaders are publicly fed up with him:

"It's at the point where he's no longer interested in his own party's opinion, he's really out of touch with reality," said Mitchell Fuchs, chairman of the Fairfield Democratic Town Committee in Connecticut. "For me, he's crossed the line a number of times.".... "I've talked to town [Democratic committee] chairs all over the state, and I would say many of them are getting upset with [Lieberman]"

Weicker sounds like he plans to run if no one else does:

"I'm not going to let [Lieberman] get a free pass on this. And that's what's going to happen if no one steps up to bat," said Weicker...

Unfortunately, he sounds committed to running as an independent, making Democratic support much more difficult.

Weicker, 74, said he would run for Senate against Lieberman as an independent, not a Democrat.....Asked about Democratic concerns that by running as an independent, Weicker could split the Democratic vote and end up giving Connecticut a pro-war Republican senator, he responded, "Their problem is not my problem. My problem is to get elected."

Chris MC said...

Mitch is a good guy, and I can confirm, going back to the Prez primary, what he is saying about local party committees. It was astonishing. I thought that I'd be a pariah out there for Dean with Joe in the race. Far from it.

I haven't seen that quote from Mitch, that I can remember. Where'd it come from?

As far as Gov. Weicker's remarks, the lefties pushing him in may get an unexpectedly rude awakening when they find out that any politician of that caliber, and there are a couple handfuls of them on the stage at any point in time, are very much focused on one principle once their ass is on the line - winning.

It won't be just Lieberman who has to justify his existence if and when Weicker steps off the dock.

Chris MC said...

ah, I see the quote now....

ctblogger said...

I've been adding my two cents to the poll over at my blog but I think this poll makes the prospect of a Liberman-Weicker race VERY interesting.

The more I think about it, the more senarios come to mind; it's giving me a headache.

Between the national attention this particular race would get (and lets not forget the Shays-Farrell or Simmons-Courtney race, the liberal groups (MoveOn.org) that would pour MILLIONS into the race and the liberal Democrats in this state who would be so energized to get out the vote, Connecticut can be ground zero for the mid-term elections. The control of Congress can be in Connectcut's hands and dont' think the DNC and RNC are not aware of this.

ctkeith said...

Now you guys are getting it,

I realize many of you here are a little slow so I'll give you a little hint.

The relevant NYT story was posted at My Left Nutmeg Yesterday.Perhaps posters here should spend a little more time on a site where the owner does a little more reading and has a backbone.

Anonymous said...

Yikes... Not exactly posted in the Christmas Spirt, CTKeith... What gives?

DeanFan84 said...

CTKeith--
Be Nice! Did you miss it last week when Aldon kicked off the new CTLocal civility campaign??

Here is the link to the NYTimes article Keith is referring to, "A Laboratory for Liberals?" And I agree that it is a good read.

Rosa DeLauro has an opinion piece about Iraq in today's New Haven Register. Unfortunately, the online version of the NHR doesn't include LTE's. And it's not up on DeLauro's site either. I'll keep an eye out for it later in the week.

For those of you who missed it, Diane Farrell had an excellent piece about Iraq, in Friday's Hartford Courant. "We Need More Than Elections In Iraq" It's too bad that Lieberman has so severely damaged the Democrats' Iraq message. (We don't want to be there forever!) But I guess that was part of the agreement when Joe sold his soul to the dark side. sigh.

ctkeith said...

This headline is what gives,

And the entire tone GC blog.

Lieberman went from the 70s to 54 (approval) without a dime being spent by a challenger and this is the headine GC puts up.Did he take Editing lessons from Sean Hannity and freinds?WTF!

A sitting Senator is at 54% (without Republican support he would be under 40%) and GC puts a headline that depicts his position as one of strength?

DeanFan84 said...

This sets up the intriguing possibility, suggested by Chris MC, of a three way race in which Weicker as an independent (he's not running as a Democrat) takes the liberal vote and a Republican candidate could take the conservative vote. Where does that leave Lieberman???

In the words of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, "I’ve spoken to Joe Lieberman and he knows he’s out there alone. I mean, literally alone. Joe is a fine man, he has strong feelings, but he’s just alone. Even Republicans don’t agree with Joe."

For the record, the very last line should be read as, "Even Republicans don't trust Joe."

------------------------------------------------
Keith--
Step away from the screen for a while. I've read Genghis's diary like three times now, and I don't see any right-wing bias. At least not in this thread.

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

You tell 'em, ctkeith!

Darn that conservative bias that dominates here on ctlocalpolitics, anyway.

Crusty conservatives like DeanFan84, Aldon Hynes, Chris MC and hardcore reactionaries like proud.moderate.dem ... Might as well turn on Fox, doncha think?

Meanwhile, on planet Earth ...

Aldon Hynes said...

Crusty Conservative Aldon Hynes reporting for duty...

DF84, thanks for invoking the spirit of civility that I've been trying to encourage.

That said, I think ctkeith has something important to say that may be getting lost in the way he is saying it.

It is worth noting that the poll said 37% of Democrats would vote for Weicker if he ran as an independent.

I know that a lot of people are discounting the possibility that Weicker will run as a Democrat, but I think that is premature. I know a lot of fairly influential people who have been urging Weicker to run as a Democrat if he does in fact run.

If 37% of Democrats would vote for Weicker as an independent, it would seem like there may be enough Democrats that will end up going to the State Convention to make it a very interesting State Convention.

Genghis Conn said...

Huh. I was interviewed for that Times article--apparently, I didn't make the cut. Oh well. The subject of the article, whether Connecticut is a liberal bellwether, is a topic for another post.

54-32 is a big spread. There's no way around it. But ctkeith has brought up a good point: 54% for Lieberman is not an encouraging number. That it could very well be a soft 54%, with the potential to be severely cut down by the presence of a (more) conservative candidate in the race, is even less so. The upshot is that re-election is suddenly much less of a sure thing for Lieberman.

Gabe said...

A Different Anonymous (No! Really!) said...

Crusty conservatives like DeanFan84, Aldon Hynes, Chris MC and hardcore reactionaries like proud.moderate.dem ... Might as well turn on Fox, doncha think?


Ahem. Where is my mention?

Anyone hearing anything about any dark horse candidates that we might not know well?

DeanFan84 said...

Gabe--
Ed Meyer got shot down yesterday, other than that, no.

But I tell you this, there are plenty of people watching the tracking polls.

What amazes me is that CT's Dem leadership tolerates Joe's blatant disloyalty. A Democrat with 69% favorability rating, among R's, and who is also the darling of the right-wing press?

I wonder how many calls Harry Reid has made to CT Dems. I also wonder if Joe is on his way to switching parties.

DeanFan84 said...

This is for all the anonymous Malloy posters, from Action News 8, FBI: Murder rateup:

"Stamford remains the safest big city in Connecticut despite a nearly 28 percent increase in violent crime in the first six months of 2005 -- an increase driven by a 50 percent increase in robberies."

ctkeith said...

Reelection of Lieberman was NEVER a sure thing.Polls this far out are about name recognition and nothing more.

The rasmussen poll should end anyone calling Lieberman a "popular Senator" and as soon as someone is seen as a serious opponent to Rell her numbers will drop to the low 50s also.

In 2002 the conventional wisdom was W would win with a minimum of 6o%.52% voted their fear instead of their brain and this country is paying a horrible price in both lives and treasure.

Lieberman is running a fear campaign just like W did in 04 but sorry Joe,It ain't gonna work. CT is still made up of the smartest people in this country and we don't scare that easy.Joe is starting at 54% and if only half the Republicans vote for their party candidate Joe is Really in the low to mid 40's right now.

Gabe said...

DeanFan84 said...
Gabe--
Ed Meyer got shot down yesterday, other than that, no.


I'm gonna need details. I googled and didn't find any info.

ctkeith said...

Gabe,

Deanfan means the idea got shot down here.

Of course no original idea was ever invented here either.

Gabe said...

Gotcha.

FYI, one of the shooters yesterday refered to Ed Meyer as a Right-winger from NY... Unless there are 2 Ed Meyers that used to be from NY and are now from CT, he switched from the Rs to the Ds because he wasn't a right-winger.

superD said...

DeanFan84,
Did the Action News 8 report include New Haven's ranking? No wait, New Haven stopped reporting its stats to the FBI, so that information is not available. Makes one wonder why......

DeanFan84 said...

SuperD--
How about this? You talk about Stamford's crime problems, and I'll worry about New Haven's. The article says urban crime is up throughout CT. In fact, it is up throughout New England... and probably the whole darn country.

Chris MC said...

Well, I read the NYT piece.

"Voting results present a complicated picture, particularly since the state has not elected a Democratic governor since William A. O'Neill won in 1986. That flexibility in picking candidates from different parties shows the state is not driven by ideology, said Mr. Curry, Mr. Rowland's failed opponent, who is now working on writing projects.

The state is not so much liberal as "civil and tolerant," he said. "We've never been at each other's throats over the culture wars. It says something nice about us that we've been able to negotiate so many hard changes with so little ill will."


Apparently Bill doesn't read this blog. GC needs more backbone? Does this have to be DailyKos? You get Keith on Fox News, and WHAM, he's the Ann Coulter of the left.

Well, I am just beside myself, at least if I listen to some of what is said here. The lefties are sure I'm a rightie, the righties are sure I'm a leftie. I'm on both sides of me.

""It's less a liberal bellwether," he said. "It's more of an innovator in public policy."

While Connecticut may continue to set an example for people in other parts of the country to push for liberal policies, it will likely do so in response to specific needs within its borders, not ideological imperatives, Mr. Curry said.

Dr. Foyle echoed this thought. "These are local issues in Connecticut that are being addressed based on local attitudes," he said."


So, is Iraq a local enough issue?

Jandtheargonauts said...

Weicker Round 2:

The first time Weicker ran and won his Senate seat was a result of a divided Democratic party.

Joe Duffy, a hero of mine, ran against Sen. Thom Dodd (Chris' father), who suffered from his staunch support of the war and his ethics troubles.

The Dems split, and their fight continued into the general election allowing the Congressman from CT-4 (Weicker) to win the seat.

Anonymous said...

Crime is up in CT's cities because the economy in CT is down. Can I have my degree in CJ from UNH now?

Anonymous said...

Bill Curry is working on writing projects? Is he running for Senate?

Anonymous said...

Nader's from CT. How about him against Joe?