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Tuesday, February 28, 2006

Shays Ready to Take On Farrell

Few congressional races in 2004 were as close as the one in the 4th District between longtime Republican Rep. Christopher Shays and Westport First Selectwoman Diane Farrell. In the end, Shays won 52%-48%, despite a surge for John Kerry in his district and a strong opponent.

Despite this close shave, Shays seems confident about his chances in 2006 in this article from the Stamford Advocate:

Shays, R-Bridgeport, said his voting record supports the best interests of the Fourth Congressional District.

"I feel I'm more effective today than I've ever been before," Shays said. "I have a lot of clout in my party and I think I'm needed by my district." (Ginocchio "Shays")

Actually, it always seems to me like Shays is one of the more marginalized members of Congress, but all right.

Strike Me Down, and I Shall Become More Powerful...

Shays continues with this odd line, claiming that he would actually grow more powerful should the Democrats take the house:

If Democrats win control of Congress in November, his independence from the Republican leadership will strengthen his role in the House, Shays said.

"In the end, if I'm in the minority, I'll be one of the most powerful members of Congress," he said.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., would "have to depend on me as a moderate Republican" for votes if she became Speaker of the House, he said. (Ginocchio "Shays")

It just seems like he'd be a marginal member of the opposition party.

Well, I guess I can see it. Moderates do have a certain amout of power in Washington, these days, and he might be useful as a Republican Pelosi could count on. Still, it's an odd thing to say. It almost seems like he wants the GOP to lose--except for himself, of course.

But how likely is it that he'll win another term?

Farrell, Iraq and the National Mood

This race is somewhat similar to the Simmons/Courtney race I talked about a while ago, in that there is a GOP moderate facing a Democratic opponent for the second time.

One difference is that Farrell's positions on some issues are a lot clearer than Courtney's, which makes her a much more attractive candidate. One of her signature issues is her opposition to the Iraq War, which Shays continues to support following nearly a dozen visits to the country.

Huh. Do we know any other politicans who go to Iraq a lot, then come home and say how well things are going? No?

Farrell was quick to endorse Sen. Joe Lieberman last week, despite the fact that his views on Iraq are very, very similar to Shays'.

Farrell, former first selectwoman of Westport, said that although Lieberman's Iraq position may be unpopular with many Fairfield County Democrats, she and the longtime senator have agreed on many other issues, and her endorsement was justified.

"Joe is a longtime friend and he has endorsed me and my campaign in the past," Farrell said in a telephone interview last week. "We'll have to agree to disagree on the war . . . but we agree on so many other issues" such as women's privacy rights, the Family Leave Act and fair wages.

Plus, she added, her race against Shays, R-Bridgeport, is about more than Iraq. (Ginocchio "Farrell")

That seems a little lame, considering that the Iraq War was one of the centerpieces of her 2004 campaign, and looks to be so again. Granted, she was probably placed in some sort of impossible position, but that doesn't change the fact that she's handed the Shays campaign a great line of attack, and annoyed some of her own partisans, as well.

This, plus the fact that this is not a presidential year, makes me think that Farrell is not in a good position to win in 2006. However, I will readily admit that my knowledge of Fairfield County is a bit spotty. It's the part of the state I travel to least, and therefore know the least about. Are there other factors, such as demographic shifts or a general dislike of Shays, that could swing this to Farrell?

Of course, the other thing that could swing the election her way is a national shift towards the Democrats. If that happens, Shays may find that he won't be around to help out Speaker Pelosi after all.

Sources

Ginocchio, Mark. "Farrell's action in line of fire." Stamford Advocate 26 February, 2006.

Ginocchio, Mark. "Shays confident about rematch with Farrell." Stamford Advocate 28 February, 2006.

82 Comments:

Anonymous MysticD said...

Farrell has a good chance this year but I think Shays will be the hardest to beat of the three incumbents. Simmons is running in a district that is pretty liberal and never really should have gone to a Republican to start with. Courtney is definitely going to win there. Johnson has to deal with a young opponent who is new and different and she's got problems with the senior citizen crowd this year because of the medicare stuff so she's got trouble too. Shays knew he was going to have a rematch so he's probably prepared for Farrell. Then again Farrell probably has some good name recognition so maybe it all evens out.

2/28/2006 12:26:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Now for a little reality... all three Republican incumbents win and easily.

2/28/2006 12:28:00 PM  
Anonymous bluecoat said...

The invasion of Iraq is old news and as Dodd, Farrell's mentor, pointed out in the FOX interview Sunday it's now about finishing the job, which is something both Dodd and Lieberman agree on with Shays.

What's all this mean? Farrell's best chance was two years ago when she painted tried to paint Shays as a right winger two years ago . She lost credibility even with some who would have supported her. She blew it and she will fair worse this time around. I expect the polls to show that but I haven't seen any yet.

2/28/2006 12:41:00 PM  
Blogger turfgrrl said...

Shays is vulnerable for several issues. His position on the Iraq war is a non-starter, and Farrell would do well to downplay that. Shays has not held the Bush administration accountable for anything. Not for the false intelligence debacles, not for outing a CIA asset, not for ramming through the worst Medicare bill in history, not for Guantanamo, not for Abu Ghraib, not for real id, not for the patriot act, not for FEMA, Homeland Security etc.


If congress is a check and balance, Shays succumbed to the GOP beltway drop your pants and bend over mentality.


This is the guy who after all suggested that NYC was not safe on New Year's. While the Alaskan GOP reps can bring home federal dollars to build bridges to nowhere, Shays is the invisible man delivering nothing to Fairfield County. If Farrell can hammer home the many years of nothing Shays brings, she's got a shot.

2/28/2006 12:55:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

MysticD

I would say that Nancy Johnson is the hardest of the Republicans to beat. I wouldn't be surprised if Simmons and Shays lose but Johnson has one hell of a warchest and is very popular with senior citizens in the 5th (i.e. Southbury).

Now don't get me wrong, Chris Murphy has a chance but it's not going to be as easy as Farrell has with Shays or Courtney has with Simmons.

Never underestimate the power of the senior citizen vote during a non-Presidential election. Those people come out and vote faithfully. Murphy HAS to make his presence known in Danbury (a city he has to take) and really work hard in the lower part of the 5th district (where I live) or else he'll become another Dean Esposito (a democratic candidate that few Democrats know about).

2/28/2006 12:55:00 PM  
Anonymous bluecoat said...

I agree with turffgrrl but the time to do that was two years ago and farrell blew it.

2/28/2006 01:00:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

also bluecoat:

The invasion of invading Iraq is now part of the whole "do you trust anything this President says" factor. Basically this administration has mismanaged this war from the beginning and now were facing a civil war which will cost more very young American lives.

From Iraq, to Katrina, this administration has misinformed (or in the CIA case, lied) to the Americasn people which is why you see Republicans running away from Bush like he's the plague (34 percent approval rating {CBS poll}; over 70 percent of the military wants out of Iraq {Zogby poll}.

Iraq should be the centerpiece of anyone running for office simply because people are dying over there and most (if not all) the reason we were told that a pre-emptive strike on Iraq was nessasary were found to be false.

Anyone who says that was the past and we need to look at the future is scared to look back at the past becasue the war is so unpopular. Democrats in Connecticut are VERY angry at the Republicans while the conservatives are running away from their President. Farrell should use this to her advantage and attack Shays as hard as she can and energize her base.

2/28/2006 01:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Farrell will lose....at the start of the Iraq War and in her job as 1st select person of Westport she took the lead in killing an anti-war reolution brought to her town council by anti-war activists...to be against this war as she is running for Congress is rank hyprocrisy.

Shays also called for DeLay's removal as majority leader, thus proving he isnt a " right winger" that she tries to paint him...he is a moderate and the folks in her district know it...she will be caught yet again painting him what he isnt and it will blounce back on her...

Furthermore...her staff are tried and true...in losing...the campaign manager is like 0 for 3 in 4th CD congressional races...she really needed someone with a winning mentality and not a loser.

Finally..the left wing of the party will have a decreased impulse for this race since she is supporting DINO JOE and MALLOY

2/28/2006 01:16:00 PM  
Anonymous CT05 Admin said...

I almost agree with ctblogger. The senior citizens can and should turn on Johnson over her medicare boondoggle, and less well-known matters impacting seniors for the benefit of Johnson contributors.

If Murphy succeeds there, the race moves very close to toss-up in a hurry. Remember, the "yellow-dog" vote in this district is about 38%.

Danbury is important, and Waterbury crucial, to a competitive race in the 5th.

2/28/2006 01:21:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

ct05

That's why it's SO important that Murphy gets down to Danbury ASAP and get up shop.

It would be best if he waits until the Democrats have their election in a couple of weeks (seems like the dems are having alittle infighting right now).

Danbury is key to winning the 5th. Nancy should do good in the upper part of the 5th but if Murphy works hard in Danbury, he should capture the city and get the surrounding areas as well.

Southbury is going to be tough but if he gets that town and gets the lower 5th, he wins.

I think Waterbury is a no-brainer and he takes that city.

My two cents from a blogger in Danbury.

2/28/2006 01:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Proud Moderate Dem said...

ctblogger, agreed, murphy needs to set up shop in Danbury like yesterday. it seems to me that his focus has been too much on the old 6th areas and not enough on the parts of the old (and new) 5th. southbury will be impossible to win, however the goal there is not to win, but to keep margins down. he should focus on driving up margins in meriden and danbury. the brass city of waterbury is by no means a no brainer. it is the land of the reagan dem so the message needs to be very tailored. nancy does not deserve that seat, but she has the equivelant to a fundraising faucet and will be able to dominate all aspects of media while running multiple tracks on tv. she also has been surpressing murphys fundraising by telling the health care communuty to not contribute during the last quarter. if only daily kos would write a diary about how she eats kittens.

2/28/2006 01:52:00 PM  
Blogger stomv said...

the fact that this is not a presidential year, makes me think that Farrell is not in a good position to win in 2006.

I'd agree, except for the Joementum election. If Lamont wins the Dem primary then folks may flock to vote for the senate race, and that will bring out both the libs and the GOPs.

2/28/2006 02:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maloney beat Nancy Johnson by 900 votes in Danbury and he lives there, represented it in the Senate and in Congress... 900 votes. Chris Murphy has no chance of beating her.

2/28/2006 02:06:00 PM  
Anonymous CT05 Admin said...

No, Waterbury is not a no-brainer. More than Danbury, Waterbury is a town where conservative Democrats are a major factor. There is a gulf between the politics of, say, Meriden and those of Waterbury and Danbury. Maloney is Danbury born and bred, and he held only a small margin there. He actually did better in Waterbury, but that has alot to do with the strength of his local supporters at polling time.

Not to say Murphy needn't put resources into Danbury, because he can't afford to lose badly there. With the Mayor actively supporting Johnson, it will be very tough for Murphy to make inroads, however.

One factor worth examining that has been ignored so far is the New Britain equation. I really thought Jason Jakabowski had more than an even shot at taking the Mayor's office there last November, but he got shellacked. Suggests that the conservative Democratic vote in New Britain is more of a factor than it appeared. That, combined with the Johnson hometown advantage, could make New Britain a tougher nut than it appears on the basis of registration or even performance.

If so, Murphy's focus on that old-sixth end of the district makes good sense. If he isn't very competitive there, he loses badly.

Again, the key is the seniors vote. All the left/right stuff goes out the window if the seniors vote their interests, and Murphy has a real shot at an upset.

2/28/2006 02:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 2:06 says

Ct05 admin... i'll buy in to your little strategy for arguments sake.. and now i'll raise you.. the 500 lb. guerillas in the district.. how does Murphy combat Avon, Simsbury, Farmington, Canton, New Fairfield, New Milford, Southbury, Cheshire, Watertown and Woodbury when you've conceded he can't lose Danbury badly (which i agree with you on) and will have a hard time in New Britain.. In order to win.. the D would need to have huge margins in Meriden, N.B. and Waterbury.

2/28/2006 02:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Mr. Reality said...

George Bush proved last election that you can be disliked and a terrible candidate and still win an election. Why does this happen? Because the electorate needs to know what the challenger stands for. No one knew what Kerry stood for except that he was not George Bush (close-minded people think that's all you need). But you need to stand for something as well. Kerry had no clear message, Bill Curry no clear message.

Farrell probably will come closest this year but do far worse than two years ago because people are a bit more familiar with her anti-war stance, then again her plan for the future of Iraq is unclear.

Courtney? He can talk about Tom Delay and Jack Abramoff until he is blue in the face, but he is running against Rob Simmons who has a pretty strong record (sub base savior). I mean how in the world is he going to convince people that he would do a better job saving a sub base when he is anti-military?

Murphy? I see he is going with this Medicare issue. That's actually a good one because people are affected by it. If he could come out with a plan to make it easier to understand he might get a few votes, but since he probably won't he'll have a tough time winning as well.

Going negative can help you win an election BUT you need to back it up with a plan of your own. These three running don't stand for anything as far as I can tell. For that reason I can't see them winning this year.

2/28/2006 02:51:00 PM  
Anonymous Winsted said...

The Avon, Simsbury, etc. crowd are smart voters. They don't like what's happening in DC and they will understand the need to make a change by getting rid of Johnson so that the Bush republicans don't control ALL of the branches of government. I think Murphy will do pretty well there.

He represents Waterbury, so he must have won some elections there in the past, right?

Obviously he needs to campaign everywhere in the district including Danbruy but it's still a long time until the election, and he only got rid of the other democrats in the race a few weeks ago, so I think he still has time.

2/28/2006 03:01:00 PM  
Anonymous Proud Moderate Dem said...

winsted, as i have said before, time is the one resource that you can't get back or replenish during a campaign and should not be wasted. i think nancy has to go but for the life of me, i dont see how murphy is able to overcome the money advantage and further, it is tough to run against a grandmother. whats also interesting about voters is that when polled the overwhelming majority think that the culture in DC needs to change, however, the majority also thinks that their congressperson is doing a good job.

2/28/2006 03:03:00 PM  
Anonymous CT05 Admin said...

A2:36

Simsbury went Kerry last election. Simsbury.

Avon, pretty tough nut.

Farmington, not quite as tough, but tough.

Cheshire can swing. Murphy could take Cheshire.

Watertown has no party affiliation. Wolcott Murphy represents now, so his name recognition is better than the down-district towns.

Canton will be closer than usual, I predict, but neither Canton nor Woodbury are a huge factor, Woodbury is safe R territory usually.

New Milford is the swing town. Another conservative Democratic town that has been voting Republican more often than it should.

New Fairfield and Middlebury are Johnson's base towns, tough to make a dent in them.

Newtown, Bethel, and the northwest corner towns are all softer than they appear. Bethel is another conservative Dem type town, and Newtown went surprisingly more toward Kerry, although it wasn't Simsbury.

All that said, the issue is Johnson and her sell-out of the seniors and the principles on which she was first elected long ago and far away. That isn't going negative, it is her record. If the seniors vote on the basis of her record and their interests, we have an upset in the making.

2/28/2006 03:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought I'd give you a chance to have an honest debate but it's quite clear that you have no political sense whatsoever and you work for Murphy.. if any of you think any of those towns go for Murphy, you're obviously drinking. For the record, Chris Murphy is running because he's wants to make sure he gets the nomination if she retires not because he thinks he can win.

2/28/2006 03:18:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

Maloney lost in Danbury was due to a strong senior citizen turnout (Danbury has a big population of seniors).

Add that and the vicious infighting the occurred bewteen Democrats in Danbury had during that time period (which is STILL going on today) and it's easy to see why he lost.

Also, you have to factor in the fact that Mark Boughton took over as mayor during the time of Johnson defeating Maloney (BTW: Boughton won that election in 2001 against Democrat Chris Setaro by less than 200 votes). Things could of (and probably would of) been different in 2002 if Gene Eriquez was in charge of Danbury as he stopped the infighting between the Democrats during his tenure.

Again, Democrats in Danbury have to get their act together; stop backstabbing each other; and get on the same page. There is no way you can win an eleciton if the Democratic Town Committee members are at war with each other (just ask Dean Esposito). Danbury has a very long history of being a Democratic city and still has more Democratic voters than Republicans. Murphy can not count the fifth largest city in Connecticut off.

I understand you comments about Waterbury but I still think Murphy can take that city.

2/28/2006 03:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

First off, a losing record doesn't mean anything. Carville lost like 10 races before getting Clinton elected President.

Second, the campaign manager isn't the only player. Farrell has a bunch of consultants working with her who know what they're doing.

2/28/2006 03:31:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

mr reality:

http://www.newbritainherald.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=16181781&BRD=1641&PAG=461&dept_id=10110&rfi=8

This article from the herald says Murphy has a plan to fix the medicare program. Step in the right direction.

2/28/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 3:31

You'd be talking about Global Stratgies aka Roy O. and Duby (this is my first campaign) McDowell. Malloy and Curry come to mind.

2/28/2006 03:36:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Murphy was very popular in Waterbury, the appearance of a nice and personable young guy- until he made same sex marriage one of his hallmark legislations. Waterbury will be a tougher battle for Murphy than people think, Wolcott has the same brand of democrat.

2/28/2006 03:37:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

CT05,

All Murphy needs to do in Danbury is get Maloney and Curry in his team and have them pound the pavement for him.

Maloney gets the Dem vote in Danbury
Curry gets the votes in Bethel (easily).

Hell, the Republicans are as disorganized and just riding on Boughton's name and although Boughton won the last election, Democrats picked up seats in the Common Council (and this was with all the infighting that was happening).

Trust me, I know Danbury very well as I've lived here and covered politics in this area for almost 20 years...the city is Murphy's to win but he needs to be active in the area and people need to learn more about him.

Also, don't sleep on Newtown. I lived there for five years and it's become more liberal as younger people move into that area (Newtown, Old Hawleyville, Sandy Hook) and they had a HUGE anti-war protest last year that I covered on my blog.

Any town from Danbury going up to Southbury could go Murphy's way if he campaigns hard enough.

Okay, I'm going alittle overboard with all the comments, I should save this for my own blog :-)

2/28/2006 03:37:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

What am I missing about the Curry getting all the votes in Bethel joke? And haven't we concluded that Maloney beating her in Danbury (his hometown) by 900 votes wasn't that much?

2/28/2006 03:44:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Murphy lives in Cheshire. He can probably win there. Same with Wolcott since it's in his district and they probably know him.

I think the suburban people in Avon and Canton and those places will like Murphy. Johnson will probably do a lot of negative ads, but people are sick of that.

2/28/2006 03:51:00 PM  
Anonymous NBDemocrat said...

Don't post about New Britain unless you know New Britain. Murphy will win it hands-down. Koskoff, Valenti, and Gerratana all trounced Nancy in New Britain. The only time she's recently won was against Maloney - she campaigned harder than ever in her hometown that year and she still barely squeaked by Maloney. And you need to check your vote totals: Jakubowski didn't get shallacked in the mayor's race, but Nancy did get shallacked by Gerratana in NB in 2004.

2/28/2006 03:58:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're talking about 2002 when Republicans did awesome nationally. 2006 is going to be a different animal. Republicans have a lot of baggage right now. It seems like the only thing in their favor is that they are incumbants and have more money. I bet a warm glass of water could beat the Republicans this year.

2/28/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

hello everyone, i'm nancy johnons's $2.1million dollars, nice to meet you.

2/28/2006 03:59:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I guess you could say the 55-45% Gerrantana beat Johnson by is a shellacking (?) and the 53-47%Stewart beat Jukabowski by isnt.

2/28/2006 04:06:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Farrell is a great and likeable candidate, that comes across no matter who runs her campaign.

2/28/2006 04:08:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

anon 3:44

What part about Mark Boughton did YOU not understand in terms of Johnson's victory?

Don't take Curry's influence for granted.

Why do I have the feeling that you're not from the Danbury-Bethel area a.k.a have no idea what you're talking about.

2/28/2006 04:11:00 PM  
Anonymous Proud Moderate Dem said...

ctblogger, The margin in Danbury had nothing to do with boughton, it had to do with johnsons money advantage over maloney. period.

2/28/2006 04:18:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

c'mon, wake up-- Bill Curry is not going to campaign for Chris Murphy any more than Chris Murphy campaigned for Bill Curry.

Murphy did NOTHING for Curry.

2/28/2006 04:21:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't understand any of it.. Bill Curry never did anything in Bethel and Nancy Johnson no more ran on Mark Boughton's name recognition than David Cappiellio... she had $5 million in the bank and was on tv 24 hours a day. You have no idea what you're talking about and lastly I live in the area.

2/28/2006 04:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Weicker Liker said...

Didn't Paul Valenti beat Nancy Johnson in New Britain???

You dont know the whole story about New Britain.

2/28/2006 04:29:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought Murphy was the ’96 campaign manager for the challenger to Johnson… losing by only 1%. Although I’m not sure about that. But if so, you have to say he’s got a reasonable shot. And anyway, Nancy is in her 70s, I think. Even if Chris loses, he may very well be lined up for a shot at an open seat in two years. And if so, does he really care about this year? And who would want to be going untested into a primary two years from now against Maloney and Curry? I tend to doubt Murphy has much chance of winning this year, but people are pretty annoyed with the current congress.

As for Waterbury, Cheshire and Wolcott (if it’s in the 5th), along with Southington (the 1st), it’s his current district. You’d have to assume he does fairly well there. And while he only has a section of Waterbury, I believe it is the section currently represented by one of the few Republicans in the state house… Salim Noujaim. Which says to me, Murphy is already able to carry what may be the most conservative section of Waterbury… although I really don’t know Waterbury.

2/28/2006 04:33:00 PM  
Anonymous The Silver Fox said...

Not to mention that Diane Farrell is one hot granny.

2/28/2006 04:39:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bill Curry HATES Nancy Johnson and he must think there is a chance of beating her this year, or else he would not have considered running against her himself. No matter what the history is, I am sure he will work for Murphy.

2/28/2006 04:45:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gerratana (who entered the race late and had zero cash) beat Nancy by 1,800 votes in New Britain. Chris Murphy will absolutely 100% NOT lose New Britain.

McKardle never has or will give Murphy the credit he deserves. Maybe once he's a Congressman, McKardle will finally show Chris a little respect as a politician.

2/28/2006 04:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the flip side, if Murphy loses to Johnson and it is an open seat two years from now... would either Curry or Maloney really want to be going against Murphy in a primary and have him quoting their endorsements from two years prior?

Both Curry and Maloney would curry favor within the Democratic Party by endorsing Murphy now, but they stand to hurt themselves two years from now... if they want to jump into a primary for an open seat.

As with most politics, decisions are contingent on what most benefits oneself. So I'm guessing that Curry will not help Murphy because apparently Curry is thinking about running... at some point. On the other hand, if Maloney is no longer interested in Congress... maybe the governor's seat in four years... he will probably endorse Murphy, thus helping him curry favor for four years from now when it's entirely possible that Jodi will not run again.

I bet Maloney endorses Murphy, but Curry does not.

It's all just a big chess game.

2/28/2006 04:50:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

...Murphy's a pawn and Nancy's a queen. Checkmate.

2/28/2006 05:03:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

anon 4:24

Asleep at the wheel again.

I didn't say anything about Johnson running with Boughton. I said that Boughton victory help Johnson win against Maloney due to the good Republican turnout (and again the seniors came out big time in that election).

Johnson didn't campaign that much in the area and I should know because I covered that election. She won because senior citizens LOVED her big time over a liberal Demcorat in Maloney (who didn't do that much in Congress).

Boughton win (due in large part to the infighting between Dems in the area) gave control of Danbury to the Republicans and helped Johnson win in the city period. To put it simple, Boughton's votes (seniors) helped Johnson (who is loved by seniors).

Why don't you and proud dem go and check the numebrs in Danbury and come back to me.

..this is so silly. I can't wait to show this thread to my friends at City Hall and reporters I know in the area, they'll get a laugh from you two ranting about Danbury politics...

2/28/2006 05:08:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

anon 4:45

You're right. Curry REALLY hates Johnson and would love to see her go.

I'm was alittle surprised that he didn't enter the race in the first place seeing that Murphy isn't doing much in the area (Danbury, Bethel, Newtown, etc).

Anyway, this race (as well as the 4th and 2nd) will be very interesting to watch over the next 6 months.

2/28/2006 05:12:00 PM  
Anonymous Paul Valenti said...

Paul Valenti did beat Nancy Johnson in New Britain...with NO $. I was there. :-)

2/28/2006 05:14:00 PM  
Anonymous Proud Moderate Dem said...

ctblogger, its you who should be checking the numbers and getting back to me, the fundraising numbers that is. why do you think seniors loved her in the last election, bc of her paid media and direct mail. she dominated every facet of media, tv, mail and radio. bc of her money advantage she framed the message. had zilch to do with boughton turning out R's.

2/28/2006 05:19:00 PM  
Anonymous the silver fox said...

OK, OK, I'll have to settle this. Murphy, you're out. Curry, you're in.

Done.

2/28/2006 05:20:00 PM  
Anonymous Proud Moderate Dem said...

ctblogger, one last thing. you should check jim's voting record before putting the liberal tag on him.

2/28/2006 05:24:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is it that unlikely that Murphy loses this year and with Johnson retiring in two years, Curry gets El Presidente, Bill Clinton, to raise money for him... helping him win in Danbury (!!!) in a primary and then in the general election.

In '08, it may very well be Murphy out and Curry in.

2/28/2006 05:27:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And that's probably why Murphy gave up his safe seat for an unknown. Because if he wants to climb the ladder... he knows he'd be even more challenged in an open seat election.

Coincidentally, the whole Abramoff thing blew wide open... and there's Iraq, so Murphy may have a real shot this year.

2/28/2006 05:30:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Murphy gave up his seat (which has always been lightly challenged) and moved to the 5th CD to take two shots. He is going to have one shot, because if Nancy retires it is going to be Curry and Maloney looking at the open seat, with many Rs looking on as well.

2/28/2006 06:08:00 PM  
Blogger Genghis Conn said...

...Anyone want to talk about Diane Farrell? ...Or Chris Shays?

2/28/2006 06:15:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CT blogger- I hate to be personal about this but i'm not asleep at the wheel. But you really need to pay a little more attention to if you're going to get involved in debate. And you can show this thread to all your "friends" at City Hall, and tell the Mayor I said hi, or is he not one of the friends youwere talking about. His being elected and her victory over Maloney had nothing in common. Seniors vote, thats what they do, they didn't come out and vote for her because of him or vice versa or upside down or inside out. She won because she had $5 million that she spent on tv and radio but apparently you didn't see any of those ads in Danbury or any of those press releases in the News-Times or the debate in Danbury at the Port. Club. Come on... you're killing me. My wife is calling me for dinner.

2/28/2006 06:24:00 PM  
Anonymous BootNancy said...

Genghis:

How is the poll on which race will be most interesting shaping up?

Does it reflect the apparent intense interest in the Murphy-Johnson race?

2/28/2006 07:05:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shays beats Farrell 53-47%. Closer than I really think but Bush is so bad he drags down the Congress people.. there is a new National Review survey that shows Shays, Simmons and Johnson as centrists. It was on yesterdays (or the day before) Teagan Political Wire. Check it out.

2/28/2006 07:29:00 PM  
Blogger ctkeith said...

57 comments and every one by a Republican is posted Anonymously.Doesn't that tell everyone here something.

Check out the Branford selectmans results from the 05 election to see the future.Republicans won't be able to admit they're Republicans in 06 because the word itself has become an embarassment.

Lamonts gonna win the primary and Dems are going to win the Senate and all 5 house seats.

2/28/2006 07:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I meant National Journal. my apologies.

2/28/2006 07:41:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CT Keith, considering the GOP won New Britain, Bristol, Norwalk, Torrington and Middletown perhaps Branford was an aberration....or due to weak local Republicans

Of course, there are only two elections in your world. Democrats victories and Republican thefts.

(There must be 120,000 forged ballots in OH, why?, because we say so !)

Yes, there are anomymous posters here. the ballot is secret too, perhaps that's why you guys lose so often.

2/28/2006 08:03:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the only thing it tells everyone is that at ripe old age of 50, CT Keith finally got a job.

2/28/2006 08:10:00 PM  
Blogger ctkeith said...

Are you going to name your first born Anonymous Jr?

I don't blame Republicans for feeling Shame I'm just suprised it took so long.

Then again,maybe I'm not.

2/28/2006 08:16:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

naw, his name is Generic.

2/28/2006 08:31:00 PM  
Anonymous MikeCT said...

I recently saw Chris Murphy at a fundraiser, and, having seen Lamont and Courtney, I think Murphy is the best speaker, the most straightforward, and the most confident. He also seems to have some guts. He thinks it is important that Dems have a unified message with some real substance, and that they offer a positive vision and not just a critique. He said he's not going to be another "wishy washy" Dem.

He is also serious about universal health care, unlike most Dems, and has co-sponsored a single payer bill in the state legislature. That takes courage and vision - qualities essential to victory but usually in short supply among pols.

He places himself in the Murtha camp in terms of withdrawal from Iraq, though I didn't hear specifics on a timetable.

It was an abbreviated stump speech, and I'd like to hear more details, but I came away with a good feeling about the guy. I would encourage people to get out and meet him. He has just opened a New Britain headquarters, and they are looking for volunteers to help in the office (and elsewhere, I'm sure).

His arguments on why he can win:
* He represents the biggest city, Waterbury, has outperformed most Dems there, and has a history of winning in traditionally Republican districts.
* He has more money in the bank than any other previous challenger to Johnson this early. (Note to Maloney fans: he was an incumbent, not a challenger.) With $420K raised, he is among the top fundraisers in the nation.
* Johnson's voting record makes her vulnerable, including her votes on Medicare drug program, her tie breaking vote in favor of huge budget cuts to CT, and in favor of regulatory breaks for oil companies.
* Dems outnumber Republicans in the 5th CD, and average Dem performance in the 5th is 53.5% [not sure how he arrives at that last stat].
* The 5th is trending Democratic - Kerry defeated Bush there, including in "Republican" towns, also Dems won several municipal elections in traditionally R towns
* Murphy was campaign manager for Koskoff's 1996 campaign, which came within 1% of winning

In other news, I can't resist a Lieberman update - even Rickie Lee Jones is fed up with Joe.

2/28/2006 08:43:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Murphy only represents 30% of Waterbury. He's run there twice, once against a Southington grandmother with no issues and the other time against a kid from Wolcott with no money.

He's run ahead of the lame state rep candidates against Selim Noujaim but far behind Maloney's 2002 perforance.

The local paper hasn't been engaged yet, and they are toxic to prominent liberals

Nancy was sleeping when Murphy was with Koskoff and snuck up on her. She's wide awake now and he has no idea what he is in for.

Besides, the 5th CD is clearly the most Republican distrit in the state and seems to be drifting right as old time 4th District Republicans drift north

2/28/2006 08:59:00 PM  
Blogger DeanFan84 said...

MikeCT gets the award for most interesting posts! Hands down!

And Genghis, can you do something about personal invective being hurled by anonymous bloggers, (like the 8:10pm cretin).

I mean if they want to try to smear a person with disabilities, they ought to at least be factual.

Thanks!

2/28/2006 09:02:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

anon 6:24

whatever you say (which to me, isn't that much).

As for my "friends" we all had a good laugh over your "comments" as they are so far off the amrk that it's not worth replying.

If you don't think that Boughton's victory didn't help Johnson then there is no helping you (and it is you who has no idea about politics in Danbury).

For the last time. Johnson is a HERO in senior eyes and they went to the polls in HUGE numebrs.

I advise you to take a deep breath and go do some research...opps wifey is calling you so hurry up, your food is gettng cold.

If you ever want to debate Danbury politics (or politics in the surrounding area) you can find me (I'm not hard to find and unlike you, I'm not anonynous which means you can email me).

Any time, any place.

-FIN

2/28/2006 10:06:00 PM  
Blogger ctblogger said...

Genghis-

I'm sorry about the posts but anon got under my skin.

Should of called for a open thread (or just ignore the rhetoric from anonymous posters). Either way, sorry to make a mess of this comment section.

2/28/2006 10:10:00 PM  
Anonymous Hey Now!! said...

SHAYS TO ENDORSE LIEBERMAN!! CHECK OUT COURANT'S WEBSITE!!!

2/28/2006 10:15:00 PM  
Anonymous MikeCT said...

Here's the link to the Lieberman-Shays story. Only goes to show that Lieberman is organizing his real base!

"Their position on the war can't be closer," said Michael Sohn, who is Shays' campaign manager. "They both voted to go into Iraq, and they both support staying until the job is done."
...

Shays initiated the round of discussions about Lieberman among Republicans more than a month ago, said Republicans who wished to remain anonymous because the talks were supposed to remain confidential. He phoned Rell and asked her to consider a GOP endorsement of Lieberman. One Republican described the governor as "nonplussed" by the idea, while another said Rell was non-committal.

"We're not surprised that there are people within the Republican Party that would think about endorsing Joe. He clearly is George Bush's favorite Democrat," said Tom Swan, Lamont's campaign manager.


DeanFan,
Thanks!

2/28/2006 10:35:00 PM  
Blogger turfgrrl said...

There is no one running around fairfield County saying Shays is doing a great job. There is no major accomplishment that Shays can turn to and say "look what I did." That is Farrell's point to make. The problem in making that stick is Rell. Each time Rell brings up transportation issues, the GOP seem "in charge" and doing something. From a strategic standpoint, it would make sense for the democratic nominee for governor and the congressional candidates to run a team focused platform on connecticut issues.

2/28/2006 10:40:00 PM  
Blogger Genghis Conn said...

Yikes! New post forthcoming.

2/28/2006 10:41:00 PM  
Anonymous CT05 Admin said...

McKardle never has or will give Murphy the credit he deserves.

That is just ridiculous.

3/01/2006 12:01:00 AM  
Anonymous CT05 Admin said...

Allow me to reiterate:
All that said, the issue is Johnson and her sell-out of the seniors and the principles on which she was first elected long ago and far away. That isn't going negative, it is her record. If the seniors vote on the basis of her record and their interests, we have an upset in the making.

Now, since Murphy is the candidate, and since this is a big job, and since I think the candidate can upset the incumbent... Perhaps it is your opinion that leaves something to be desired.

Murphy's positions are right for the Fifth CD. Much better than Johnson's.

NBDem - my main point was only that I thought Jason's chances were excellent, I was surprised he lost. If shellacked is too harsh a word, pick another. As to "knowing" NB politics, what I said was that unexpected things can happen there, it shouldn't be taken for granted, and that the Murphy campaign starting off in NB makes sense. You should take the preceding posts from Danbury's ctblogger into account.

3/01/2006 12:23:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

CT05 adminstartor thinks a Dem to Mlaoney;s left has positions "much better for the 5th District.

Oh yes, this was a district that Kerry carried easily, Curry ran well in and Moffett won in his 1990 comeback against Gary Franks.

None of these things happened...Bush almost won the district, Curry was crushed, Moffett humbled..and the only sure Dem lock to win the district is Joe Lieberman who you guys are eager to run out of the party into GOP ranks

Never mind

3/01/2006 06:13:00 AM  
Anonymous CT05 Admin said...

Again, all the left-right stuff goes out the window if Johnson runs on her record of support for GWB and his cabal of ideologues and her signature boondoggle legislation that sacrifices senior citizens on the alter of crony capitalism.

But if you want a more concrete measure, just observe how seriously they are taking Murphy already.

3/01/2006 07:06:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Murphy reprsents the 5th CD's biggest City, Waterbury. Yea, he has Waterbury support, look at his web site-- tons of Waterbury endorsements. Not ONE. Vance endorsed him, not on the site.

Can't take your own 'backyard' for granted.

3/01/2006 09:51:00 AM  
Anonymous bluecoat said...

turfgrrl is right again and this Medicare D attack will go nowhere my Democrat bloggers. Rell and the legislature fixed the national program. Gammpa and grammy are all going to be enrolled quite happily next fall and they' have Shays and Johnson to thank for it.

3/01/2006 10:36:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just because i can't help myself.. CT Blogger.. again its no secret that seniors love Nancy Johnson, that isn't at issue here. By the way she is one. What's at issue is that Nancy Johnson's 900 vote loss in Danbury and Mark Boughton's victory in 2001 have no connection, never had never will. You can repeat yourself 100 times and hurl personal insults all you want but that's not going to change the facts. At your request to "go get the numbers", i went a little further and got a "Campaigns & Elections" analysis of the race, BU had one as well. You can read it online but i copied and pasted the relevant part:

Why did Democrat Maloney's campaign failed to catch fire in 2002, unlike his previous campaigns?

The consensus: Johnson enjoyed greater name recognition, a perception that she was more effective in Congress, and a fundraising advantage of more than $1 million.

Because of Johnson's superior name recognition, Maloney's campaign sought to give voters a reason to oust her and chose Social Security and prescription drugs as the issues of choice, given that they were generally winners for Democratic candidates. Johnson only too willingly agreed to join in on emphasizing those issues, as she attempted to persuade voters that her positions were every bit as much, if not more, in line with them.

Their views differed somewhat with Johnson favoring the right for workers to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes in private accounts while Maloney backed a proposal allowing the government to invest a portion of the trust fund money. Both favored a prescription drug bill, though Maloney preferred a more comprehensive plan. But lengthy debates over policy nuances, as well as ads on both sides that exaggerated their differences, left voters with a blurry view of the candidates' positions.

While Maloney had established a reputation for excellence in constituent service, polls showed that Johnson was perceived as more effective in getting bills passed in Congress. Her message of having authored 23 bills that were signed into law, compared to Maloney's one bill, apparently resonated, despite Maloney's refutation of those numbers.

_______________

I'm well aware that i'll never convince you since you know Danbury politics so well but as much as like Mark Boughton, he didn't have anything to do with her victory. I've attached the link, its a must read.

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2519/is_2_24/ai_98248564

3/01/2006 11:09:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Murphy could beat Johnson, but won't. He could beat her IF she was caught off guard, but she already knows he's serious. So she's serious and she'll do everything she needs to do to win.

Fact is, they're both winners. And Murphy could do things. And if Nancy does retire within a few years, then I put money on him to win an open seat. But I just can't believe that he'll be able to beat Nancy... not when she knows she's got a winner on her hands.

3/01/2006 12:57:00 PM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

3/01/2006 03:29:00 PM  
Blogger MightyMouse1 said...

"Fact is, they're both winners."

One of the weirder posts I have seen. Murphy is taking the hit for the team in hopes of getting a second chance. And it probably won't come.

3/02/2006 03:12:00 PM  

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