Lieberman, as an independent, would win in the general election against Lamont and an unnamed Republican 45% to 25% (Lamont) to 14% (GOP). That's about the same as the same poll done with Weicker replacing Lamont. Not bad for a guy with 7% name recognition. Maybe the anti-Lieberman base is bigger than the Q-poll suggests.
It's worth noting that Lieberman is under 50% in both scenarios, at least one of which will almost definitely happen.
It's also worth noting that:
Given the chatter about Lieberman, we asked Connecticut voters whether the incumbent should run for re-election as a Democrat, an Independent, or a Republican. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the state's voters said he should run as a Democrat, 26% as an Independent, and 17% as a Republican.
The most interesting piece of data on this point is that a plurality of Democrats want Lieberman to run as a Democrat; a plurality of Republicans want him to run as a Republican; and, a plurality of those not affiliated with either major party want him to run as an Independent. (Rasmussen)
Huh. Can't see the crosstabs, so I couldn't say for certain just what these pluralities are.
It's also really worth noting that:
In this match-up, with Lieberman running as an Independent, he leads Lamont by 11 percentage points among voting Democrats. He also wins a solid plurality of Republican and unaffiliated voters against both Lamont and a generic Republican candidate. (Rasmussen)
So instead of, say, a 45% lead, as suggested by Quinnipiac... is that lead really more like 11%? "Voting Democrats" is a much better sample for the primary than all Democrats. And considering who votes in primaries... that lead could actually be down around 5%. Wow.
A much more interesting poll than yesterday's!
Poll. " Connecticut Senate: Lieberman by 20. Conducted by Rasmussen Reports, 15 February 2006.