Thursday, February 16, 2006

Q-Poll: Lieberman Far Ahead of Lamont

Rell Still Popular, DeStefano and Malloy Lose Ground

Voters in Connecticut support the status quo, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

The poll confirms what we already know about the governor's race: people like Jodi Rell, and they have no idea who her challengers are. She would defeat DeStefano 70%-16%, and Malloy 70%-15%. Both DeStefano and Malloy, embarassingly, would win only 28% and 29% of Democratic votes cast--a clear majority of Democrats would support Rell in both cases. DeStefano and Malloy are actually losing ground against Rell from a poll released last month.

The only consolation--and it's a bitter one--is that neither man is well known, yet: 59% haven't heard enough about DeStefano to form an opinion, while 83% haven't heard enough about Malloy. These numbers won't really start to change until the convention. DeStefano is still ahead of Malloy 38%-19% for the nomination, by the way.

Voters support the governor's plan to repeal the car tax 52%-31%.

Ned Who?

Sen. Joe Lieberman is in good shape as people don't seem to be inclined to support a Lowell Weicker bid against him, and no one has any idea who his potential primary challenger is. The hyping of Lamont has primarily been an internet phenomenon--lest we start getting swelled heads and thinking that blogs influence elections in a big way, the result of a month of hype on big national blogs as well as liberal Democratic blogs in state is that 93% of people apparently have no idea who he is. Lieberman would defeat him 68%-13%. The silver lining for Lamont is that 25% of Democrats say that the war would be "the most important single issue" for them in a primary vote, while 60% say it would be as important as other issues. 80% of Democrats believe that going to war was the wrong thing to do.

Conclusions

The governor's race isn't worth paying much attention to, right now. Voters certainly aren't. They also show little sign of abandoning Jodi Rell, whose tax cut plan they sort of like. The first job of a challenger is to convince the voters that the incumbent doesn't deserve re-election. DeStefano and Malloy have a steep hill to climb there.

Ned Lamont's position is lousy, to start, but it's not all bad. 25% of Democrats, who almost universally are against the war, will be in his corner. As for getting the rest, he needs to become more knowledgable about other issues, and that he needs to differentiate himself from Lieberman on more than just the war. However, his position on the war, combined with Lieberman's stubborn support of an unpopular war being waged by an unpopular Administration (31% approval rating), does give Lamont something to stand on.

The situation isn't hopeless for the challengers in either race. The name recognition problems will be overcome. It's early, and by the time the election rolls around, people who are voting will know who the candidates are. Once again, the Democratic convention in May will be a great help, there.

As always, it's good to see the poll for yourselves and to draw your own conclusions.

Source

Poll. Quinnipiac Poll-Connecticut. Conducted by Quinnipiac University Feb. 9-14, 2006.

27 comments:

stomv said...

I think Lamont has a chance...

the voters are ripe for a switch, they just have to learn that there is a choice. Lamont needs to use some cash to get some press, and spin up some name recognition. The question is, does he have enough time?

Anonymous said...

Time to stop cutting checks to JDS and DM and send it to Lamont. At least he'll be in the fight.

Anonymous said...

Although slim, Lamont has a much better chance than DeStefano or Malloy. At least Lamont will start out with a liberal base who is upset with Lieberman because he likes to kiss up to George Bush. With the exception of paid staff, close friends, families and union/mob bosses,who does the Democrats for Governor really have for core support? Yipes, I smell landslide.

Anonymous said...

Lamont has a chance only if Lieberman moves to another state or if Kevin Sullivan endorses him.

Genghis Conn said...

stomv,

I think Lamont will be able to raise a credible amount of money, but he does need to get cracking. So far it seems like he's been stuck in neutral.

Genghis Conn said...

I think we all know the value of a Kevin Sullivan endorsement, anonymous.

the wandererr said...

the big statistic on the guv race is that pollees haven't heard enough on Malloy or helmet head so I'll wait 'til after the convention in May. On Lamont, I've heard enough and it's not going to be much if all he is rich.

Hi Aldon!

Anonymous said...

Wandererr, that aspect of the poll is truly frightening for JDS and DM (or maybe it should be jds and dm ;) ). They both have been running for almost two years, and the "Haven't heard enough" for JDS has gone from 53% to 59%, and for DM from 75% to 83%. After all the money, time and effort expended over all this time, both have become MORE unknown?!?

Let's go Ned!

Anonymous said...

Scary thought? If people actually knew more about the 2 Democratic candidates for Governor, would their ratings be higher or lower? The fact that they are unknown may actually be helping them!

Anonymous said...

My only point is, despite almost two years of work, more people don't know them. Both campaigns have utterly failed in all of this time, to make any impression whatsoever, and in fact have moved in the opposite direction. This has allowed Rell to solidify her position, and will make it even more difficult to make headway. Instead of having two years plus for the people of CT to get to know them, they now have less than 9 months.

Anonymous said...

I agree with anon 10:29...both dem campaigns are utter failures ( and im a dem)....both staffed by folks with no experience and no idea of what is needed to "break through" Rell's numbers....both campaigns are sleep-walking thru the campaign and doing the " same old thing" No wonder the Republicans always win,

And the folks behind the campaigns are the same dumb operatives that have handed us losses for the last 20 years,,,we need to tell them " goodbye" and confine them to the sidelines.

Who gives a rat's azz if Destefano is over Malloy 2/1...

Anonymous said...

Edith Prague is running again? What a joke! Will somebody please wake her up from her nap and tell her it's time to go home!

Anonymous said...

Edith needs to run so she can have some staff to clean up after her dog takes a dump...in a committee room. Then take the high road and blame a seeing eye dog. Since only the good die young, we are faced with an eternity of Sen. Prague.

the wandererrr said...

Those who don't like the elimination of the car tax may want to vote a few extra times in G.C.'s poll to the right because so far 49% say AOK.

Anonymous said...

I hate Edith Prague.

Anonymous said...

I hear that JD is crowing on his website about his 2:1 advantage over Malloy in the Q poll. A few observations: 1) With Rell's numbers, no one should be touting their own numbers, 2) There's still a long way to go in this race and a lot can happen in 6 months(primary), and finally in the words of JD's own Policy Director, Michelle Jacklin, 3) "Of course, head-to-head match-ups this far in advance of an election are often meaningless. To wit: Barbara Kennelly, who in 1998 went from sure bet to also-ran in what seemd like a political nano-second." (8/3/05 Courant column).

As a little piece of advice to JD, I'd like to borrow another Jacklin quote from one of her last columns, "DeStefano's candidacy is headed for trouble if he persists in taking us...for fools" (11/23/05 Courant column)

Anonymous said...

Agreed,

JDS has a campaign Manager with a decent Brain but no tact and a Political and policy manager with a nice rack but little brains.

NOT A WINNING TEAM if you ask me.

Anonymous said...

sorry...im a dem that thinks both campaigns are terrible...

Aldon Hynes said...

Now that everyone has had their fun trashing the candidates and their campaigns, let me come in and make a few observations. I can just imagine some of my friends here rolling their eyes at the coming spin.

Yeah, my job is to try and find the silver lining in the news and present it in the way that is most beneficial to Mayor DeStefano, and I will try to do that here.

My impression is that so far in both Mayor DeStefano and Mayor Malloy’s campaigns, the focus has been on two sets of people, those who can write big checks and those who can vote at the convention. That is kind of how politics seems to be done these days.

It makes sense. Other than the traditional operatives, and a handful of bloggers, there haven’t been a lot of people paying attention yet. So, if we measure the campaigns against what their goals have been, both Mayor DeStefano and Mayor Malloy have been successful. They are both lining up lots of endorsements, early on. They are both bringing lots of dollars, early on.

Now that we are actually in the election year, people are starting to pay more attention. They are starting to want to hear more. This is a good thing. As regular voters start paying attention, both Mayor DeStefano and Mayor Malloy will get more opportunities to get their messages out. Voters will find that they like the Democratic challengers more and also start finding out that there just isn’t much substance to Rell.

All of this said, I suspect that most people won’t really start paying attention until after the convention is over and after school is out. I suspect that right now most people have no idea when the primary is, or how people get to the primary. I also suspect that most people aren’t really all that interested in the convention.

Proud Moderate Dem said...

there is one thing that you never get back on a campaign. time. in my humble opinion, both mayors have wasted this important resource in the early attempts to one up each other. it is clear that for whatever reasons the two campaigns dont like each other and that they let this disdain cloud their vision of what should be their ultimate goal. too much time was spent on petty campaign fights when both candidates could have been out there defining themselves in a positive light. the closer we get to election day the more likely that jodi rell will be the one doing the dedining of them. sadly, what could have been a menaingful race now appears to be the washington generals playing the ymca all star team for a shot at playing the globetrotters. i will continue to be the voice in the wilderness here, but i am convinced that others think like me and know that to win, we need to start finding our common ground and not focusing on making a larger divide. and we cant get mad at people for not paying attention, we need to find out how to make them pay attention. before the democratic party can move people's fingers in the voting booth, we need to move their hearts, minds and souls. and the only way to do this is to find commonality within our party and offer real solutions workable solutions to the people of Connecticut. i was surprised by the lamont/lieberman numbers. thought it would be closer, like 25% would be the baseline anyone but leiberman number instead of 13%. his strong work on the katrina investigation will most likeley help as well.

TrueBlueCT said...

Somehow Genghis Conn missed this one. It appears that DeStefano and Ed Marcus are back in business. (courtesy of the NH Independent).

The things people will do for campaign cash.

ctkeith said...

PMD.

Strong work on Katrina!! LMFAO

Tell us again you're not a Lieberman staffer.

Lieberman was the Chairman of the Senate Committee that created the Homeland Security Bill and the same Dept.He screwed that up so bad it cost Dems the Majority in the Senate and he proved so inept on oversight that he should take almost as much blame as Bush for the Debacle that is the Katrina aftermath.Perhaps if he was a competent Legislator 1/2 the suffering could have been avoided.

Proud Moderate Dem said...

ctkeith, ok, just for you. i'm not a lieberman staffer. so now katrina is lieberman's fault??? next you will tell me that he caused the tsunami and infected birds in europe with the flu. he's been strong on the katrina investigation, no two ways about it. but it seems silly to enagage someone who thinks it's actually a good thing to be down 68-13.

ctkeith said...

Explain how "he's been strong'

Has he written any legislation that says Haliburton can't steal anymore?

Has he asked for chertoff to resign?

Has he called the W incompetent and inept?

The only thing Joe did was make excuses for the administration and attend the Valintines Day partyat the Whitehouse with his Big Pharma Lobbiest Wife as the only Dem invited this very week the committee hearings were taking place.
I am glad you finely came clean on being a staffer though. At least now we know you're being paid to defend the indefensable

Anonymous said...

CTKeith-- RIF

Remember the commercials "READING is fundamental"

PMD said that he/she is NOT a Lieberman staffer. I work in an office (and not a political one either) and happen to be happy that Sen. Lieberman went on the attack against the Bushies and their Katrina debacle.

I support Lieberman, does that mean that I am on his payroll? or does that mean that Lamont should be paying you for your undying love?

ctkeith said...

Answe me a couple of questions.

Please list the 3 most important "attacks" Lieberman has taken on the Katrina Question in order of inportnce or effect?

How many kids died while Joe was at the Whitehouse celebating Valintines Day with His Big Pharma Lobbyist Wife?

Anonymous said...

No Keith, you miss my point. I do not support Lieberman because of his position on the war. In fact, I have told him personally that I wish that he would reconsider this position.

I support him because I think he has character. He has called out the Administration on Katrina, and I am glad that he did that.

To use your own reasoning, what have any of our Democratic attacks on the Iriq policy accomplished in order of importance or effect. I admire Murtha's stand, but has it accomplished anything?

I would argue that Murtha and Lieberman accomplished what someone in the minority can accomplish--- pointing out mistakes, calling for change.

Keith, I appreciate your passion- but you seem to want the Democrats (the party I belong to) to wallow in the minority.