tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post116336896955303617..comments2023-10-18T11:04:13.946-04:00Comments on Connecticut Local Politics: Polls in CT: How Accurate Were They?Genghis Connhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163523253297457612006-11-14T11:54:00.000-05:002006-11-14T11:54:00.000-05:00I didn't think "Majority Watch" was a partisan pol...I didn't think "Majority Watch" was a partisan poll. Isn't the polling operation a joint effort between an "R" shop (RT Strategies) and a "D" shop (Constituent Dynamics) which they simply termed "majority watch"?<BR/>Anyway, they clearly got a lot of numbers right...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163457195502479422006-11-13T17:33:00.002-05:002006-11-13T17:33:00.002-05:00UConn was the clear loser in all this. They went a...UConn was the clear loser in all this. They went a long time with no polling and then when they did they were really off. The pre and post debate polling was particularly questionable with the comparison between surveys that were in the field for different lengths in time. It also seemed like they changed methodology from past years. Anyone know if that is the case?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163457182780026732006-11-13T17:33:00.000-05:002006-11-13T17:33:00.000-05:00UConn was the clear loser in all this. They went a...UConn was the clear loser in all this. They went a long time with no polling and then when they did they were really off. The pre and post debate polling was particularly questionable with the comparison between surveys that were in the field for different lengths in time. It also seemed like they changed methodology from past years. Anyone know if that is the case?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163423267829017042006-11-13T08:07:00.000-05:002006-11-13T08:07:00.000-05:00Every televised story I saw on this race reference...Every televised story I saw on this race referenced the Q poll and ignored all others, and any poll held up consisently as the holy grail by the mass media can become a self-fulfilling prophecy; the problem is that when something like that happens, it's VERY difficult to prove. You can sit there all day and postulate whether Dean would have won the nomination in 2004 had the scream not been replayed a billion times, or whether Bush would have ever been elected had some of his worst gaffes been replayed by the media half as much, or whether Kerry would have won without the swiftboat ads, and not change a thing; media perception is not only paramount, but irreversable. Nonetheless, this issue is still not over by a long shot as far as many are concerned; there are many who still believe Schwartz did some push polling here and will continue to pursue him on the issue, and these are people who have nothing to do with the Democratic party or the Lamont campaign. For the sake of the process, I hope that if there really was some chicanery going on here, it will not go ignored simply because the push polling ended up being successful. <BR/><BR/>On another note, there WAS one poll not afraid to call the huge Rell lead. The Internet poll Pollmetrix released a last minute number for the Governor's race (at the same time they came out with their Senate race number), and it was 64% - 32%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163390390741610212006-11-12T22:59:00.000-05:002006-11-12T22:59:00.000-05:00My problem with Q-poll is simple, and even more eg...My problem with Q-poll is simple, and even more egregious considering that there polling (with two outliers, one in the primary and one in the general, notwithstanding) turned out to be accurate - why did they stop releasing their party identification weights for this race? As Mystery Pollster (Mark Blumenthal) noted (I can't find the link - I know it exists, mea culpa), Q-poll has been very open in the past, but not in this race. Why? No clue - in retrospect it seems pretty clear that they were not doing anything sneaky. All the more reason why they should have been releasing their weighted party breakdowns!Gabehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14313270027747810794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163384443629112202006-11-12T21:20:00.000-05:002006-11-12T21:20:00.000-05:00Looks like the Q poll had it dead on given the mar...Looks like the Q poll had it dead on given the margin of error in the senate race. Recall the Lamont supporters calling Schwartz a lap dog for Lieberman because the results didn't come out in their favor. Come to find out, he was just reporting the poll data as he saw it, and Schwartz had it right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163384684689485042006-11-12T21:24:00.000-05:002006-11-12T21:24:00.000-05:00I think the polls were about right. While the resu...I think the polls were about right. While the results may not be exactly the same as the polls, votes are the only way to exactly gauge the race on election day. Some people change their minds on election day and others don't, and that can't be measured accurately before the election. <BR/><BR/>I think some of the best polling was done in the 5th. The race was obviously breaking for Murphy, and it continued to do so until the polls closed. Were a poll done on election day before the polls closed, I think we would've seen a 10-14 point Murphy lead.<BR/><BR/>They'll be criticized until the end of time, but Quinnipiac does a hell of a job. They did the best work this fall.Jimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11923992479192751622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163376360085617282006-11-12T19:06:00.000-05:002006-11-12T19:06:00.000-05:00FGMS,The fact that Schlesinger didn't win a single...FGMS,<BR/><BR/>The fact that Schlesinger didn't win a single town will make things easier. I might go the route of the primary maps and use shades of purple for Lieberman... either that or some sort of gnarly orangish color. <BR/><BR/>If you noticed, I did the easy maps first! :)Genghis Connhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1163376014201037152006-11-12T19:00:00.000-05:002006-11-12T19:00:00.000-05:00Genghis,Have you figured out any non-mind-bending ...Genghis,<BR/><BR/>Have you figured out any non-mind-bending ways to do a Senate race map?<BR/><BR/>I eagerly await your work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com