tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post115066325767362281..comments2023-10-18T11:04:13.946-04:00Comments on Connecticut Local Politics: Some Days the Bear Gets YouGenghis Connhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1150739712242857382006-06-19T13:55:00.000-04:002006-06-19T13:55:00.000-04:00yes, of course, DSCC not DCCC...yes, of course, DSCC not DCCC...GMRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16839216603164745797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1150685299895290202006-06-18T22:48:00.000-04:002006-06-18T22:48:00.000-04:00The NHR editorial was interesting, but I think it'...The NHR editorial was interesting, but I think it's overplaying the chances that Schlesinger win a three way race. Schlesinger could win, but he'd need Lamont and Lieberman to get about the same number of votes.<BR/><BR/>A three way race between a Democrat Lamont, and Independent Lieberman and a Republican Schlesinger yields a huge number of new and interesting dynamics.<BR/><BR/><B>Fundraising.</B> Where does the Democrat donor money go? Whom does the DCCC back? Where do corporations and others who typically back incumbents place their funds? Does the National Republican Party smell blood, and start funding Schlesinger? Will a three way race make it virtually impossible for Malloy (or JDS) to raise funding?<BR/><BR/><B>Turnout.</B> Both Lieberman and Lamont on the November ballot would boost Democrat turnout, and most of these voters would presumably vote Democrat in the down races.<BR/><BR/><B>Straight Tickets</B>. Rell looks like she could break 60%, and in any event, she's going to get a lot of votes from Independents. Some of these will vote Lieberman. Rell will be Line A. Lieberman will be line E or worse, depending on the town. Then comes state senator. So in this scenario, the independent has been skipping around the ballot lines, not doing a straight ticket. Someone claimed this would have an effect; I doubt it, and if so, it's negligible.<BR/><BR/><B>National Image</B>. If Lieberman breaks with the party and runs as an independent, don't think that Republicans won't mention that on about every Sunday morning talk show. They'll mention how the Democrat party has been taken over by extremists, and how VP candidates don't even trust their own primary voters ("Just six years ago, this man was almost elected Vice President. Now his own party won't back him. Joe Lieberman hasn't changed his views in the last six years. He hasn't left the Democrat party. They've left him."<BR/><BR/>This will get played up after the election as well. if Lieberman wins, then everytime he appears on any talk show or any public appearance, people can say this is the guy who didn't trust the voters of his own party. They can imply that his party has been taken over by extremists.<BR/><BR/>If Lamont wins a three way race, then Republicans will say that the Democrat party has purged anyone who doesn't follow basic litmus tests. Also, if Lamont wins the primary, but the national party refuses to support him and instead supports Lieberman, and then Lamont wins the general election, what kind of relationship is he going to have with the Democrats who run those fund raising committees?GMRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16839216603164745797noreply@blogger.com