tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post113313310690345128..comments2023-10-18T11:04:13.946-04:00Comments on Connecticut Local Politics: How Red is My Blue State?Genghis Connhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133208711015007852005-11-28T15:11:00.000-05:002005-11-28T15:11:00.000-05:00In response to Anonymous who said." ... I would al...In response to Anonymous who said." ... <BR/>I would also note that the entire Dem 2006 strategy seems to be to tie the GOP to the war in Iraq, which may be of use against congressional candidates, but completely irrelevant to GOP governor and legislative candidates.: itis NOT irrelevant if it increases overall Democratic-leaning turnout. Even though some will leave the voting booth after voting for U.S. Senate and Congress, enough may stick around and protect Dems in R leaning State House seats or defeat Rs in Dem leaning seats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133199487422276672005-11-28T12:38:00.000-05:002005-11-28T12:38:00.000-05:00deanfan, i am curious how you assess things being ...deanfan, i am curious how you assess things being bad for the GOP in CT when they control the gov mansion, 3 out of 5 congressional seats and now a majority of the mayor/first selectman seats. further, you ask why rell will get credit for civil unions, etc. its bc she signs our dem bills into law. thats the type of power you get when you live in the gov mansion. lets be honest. if you were to give CT as a case study from someone in the midwest and said, ok, the past repub gov resigned in shame, is in jail for corruption and his lt gov is the current gov in a state where the 4 constitutional officers are dem and has voted for the dem presidential candiadate since 92. the lt gov (and current gov) is running for re-election.which candidate would you say has a 73percent apporoval rating. the R or the D? think most people would answer the D. so i dont think the GOP in CT has it that bad. further, you assessment of saying that Destafano will do better than past Dem Gov candidates is like saying next years new york jets team will be better than this years. not exactly a high threshold to pass. if we are to succeed as a party we need to start living in and dealing with the reality of the situation, not in some kind of democratic utopia where we tell ouselves that we have the GOP on the run here in CT.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133191152459344982005-11-28T10:19:00.000-05:002005-11-28T10:19:00.000-05:00I would also note that the entire Dem 2006 strateg...I would also note that the entire Dem 2006 strategy seems to be to tie the GOP to the war in Iraq, which may be of use against congressional candidates, but completely irrelevant to GOP governor and legislative candidatesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133182923258702622005-11-28T08:02:00.000-05:002005-11-28T08:02:00.000-05:00Perception, DeanFan. Simmons, Shays and Johnson ar...Perception, DeanFan. Simmons, Shays and Johnson are all perceived as moderates or mavericks. They work hard to cultivate this image, and by and large they are successful. Last year, Sullivan tried tarring Simmons by comparing him to Bush. The 2nd District overwhelmingly voted for Kerry, but re-elected Simmons. Perception matters for Rell, too. She probably held her nose as she signed the minimum wage increase, but she did it and she will absolutely take credit for it (especially since Democrats aren't). Just watch.Genghis Connhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133181855197147382005-11-28T07:44:00.000-05:002005-11-28T07:44:00.000-05:00Genghis-- great analysis! I believe that CT is ac...Genghis-- great analysis! I believe that CT is actually what Barak Obama calls a "purple state". We are generally fiscally conservative and socially liberal-- the perfect DNC state for guys like Joe Lieberman!<BR/><BR/>This means that GOP candidates can be successful here if they follow the DNC line....our Governor and 3 Rep congressmen fit this bill. If the GOP as a party could get their act together, I believe they could be competitive in the legislature as well. However, this will not happen in 2006.<BR/><BR/>So let's not take this state for granted! McCain could win here in 2008.<BR/><BR/>DeanFan-- our CT Republican Reps tend to vote with the President about 70% of the time (at least that's the stat from 2003). They are definitely Republicans, but you can't say they vote in lock-step with the President. This is why Diane Farrell failed in the Fourth last time....Chris Shays is not Tom Delay, and there is no way voters will buy that he is.<BR/><BR/>My prediction for CT right now is -- status quo in 2006. Simmons is safe because of the sub base, and I don't see Farrell picking off Shays unless he screws up. Governors race doesn't look competitive to me yet (although this could change if DeStefano or Malloy can put together a coherent message).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133177439909531942005-11-28T06:30:00.000-05:002005-11-28T06:30:00.000-05:00Shays , Simmons and Johnson all pressured the Pres...Shays , Simmons and Johnson all pressured the President to rescind the exec order eliminating prevailing wage for Katrina reconstruction and Simmons and Shays are both active in the Republican Labor Caucus, a group of 37 Republicans,mostly from the northeast that have kept the most virulent anti worker legislation from going anywhere in the house. Simmons and Shays have also wandered from the leadership on other votes. They are more in the role of the "Rockefeller" republican than they are given credit for. But the way that the Congress is set up, at some point for them to get some of the concessions from leadership that they need to be effective, they have to go with the flowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133154268223666832005-11-28T00:04:00.000-05:002005-11-28T00:04:00.000-05:00This is a nice analysis.This is a nice analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133151934867916652005-11-27T23:25:00.000-05:002005-11-27T23:25:00.000-05:00Remember the 2000 GOP primary? There was a massive...Remember the 2000 GOP primary? There was a massive upswing in Republican registrations in the months leading up to it. John McCain won that primary because so many independents registered Republican to vote for him. If he had been the nominee, Connecticut would have been in play.Genghis Connhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1133142352343986152005-11-27T20:45:00.000-05:002005-11-27T20:45:00.000-05:00If Rudy or McCain are the 2008 nominee, CT could g...If Rudy or McCain are the 2008 nominee, CT could get very interesting very quicklyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com