tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post112421037163311873..comments2023-10-18T11:04:13.946-04:00Comments on Connecticut Local Politics: The Incumbent RuleGenghis Connhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124462620746962382005-08-19T10:43:00.000-04:002005-08-19T10:43:00.000-04:00The real advantage, other than in state-wide races...The real advantage, other than in state-wide races, with incumbancy arises from the political control over re-districting. As long as incumbants can create their own "safe" districts, money will flow to them and not to challengers. Members of both parties have played at this game, and then become lazy when it comes to fundraising, by relying on the special interest communities (on the left and the right) to bring in the cash. The only time money doesn't flow overwhelmingly to the incumbant is when there is an actual competitive race. But to think that incumbants are going to give up their power over re-districting is even more fanciful than thinking they will give up their money advantage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124460135800357372005-08-19T10:02:00.000-04:002005-08-19T10:02:00.000-04:00Incumbents enjoy too many advantages over challeng...Incumbents enjoy too many advantages over challengers. It is impossible to provide balance, especially at a time when political parties here in Connecticut appear to be a spent force. We are becoming a one party state. When was the last time the Republican Party was able to supply a Dodd challenger with enough money to outweigh the incumbent senator's other advantages? The same question may be asked of Johnson, a Republican. Term limiting offices would help. It would also provide seasoned candidates for new positions: Dodd for governor? There is no other way to redress the balance.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124293454443849662005-08-17T11:44:00.000-04:002005-08-17T11:44:00.000-04:00Elections in Connecticut have rarely been contests...Elections in Connecticut have rarely been contests amoung equals or semi-equals. Most sitting Governors have declined to face a truely contested race, so these races offer little support for the incumbent rule in a statewide race.<BR/><BR/>In U.S. Rep. races, the factors are generally local, but voter turnout in presidential year elections have an impact. I agree that Gejdenson lost because of questions raised on his residency, a self-inficted wound. Rowland over Ratchford had more to do with Regan's infulence, Maloney over Franks involved Waterbury isues, Morrison over DeNardis had New Haven's democratic slant correcting Regan's coattails.<BR/><BR/>In the U.S. Senate races, Weicker's win over Dodd had more to do with Duffy's presence and the close margin in Lieberman's win over Weicker could be rationalized a hundred different ways, but I think his service as Attorney General gave him the advantage and in a sense both were incumbants, Lieberman would still have been Attorney General had he lost.<BR/><BR/>In 2006, if it is Rell and Blumenthal, the race will be a better test of the rule.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124287370634526982005-08-17T10:02:00.000-04:002005-08-17T10:02:00.000-04:00I have to say I generally agree with Genghis's ana...I have to say I generally agree with Genghis's analysis on the gubernatorial race. I like all three democratic candidates, but right now I just don't think they have what it takes to break through Rell's popularity ratings.<BR/><BR/>I keep waiting for one of the to show me a sign of life. Some fresh new idea or strategy that will allow them to knock of Jodi, but so far i see nothing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124233063236345302005-08-16T18:57:00.000-04:002005-08-16T18:57:00.000-04:00Aldon,Good points. I think national political tren...Aldon,<BR/><BR/>Good points. I think national political trends won't have too much of an effect here, as Rell has distanced herself from national Republicans on several occasions.<BR/><BR/>I think she will raise money, but the numbers won't be anywhere near Rowland's. An early start for Democrats might make the money race astonishingly even, if the primary doesn't burn everybody out.<BR/><BR/>I heard about International Paper. In Enfield, it's reported that Casual Corner, long a corporate staple in town, is starting to lay off workers. Gas prices are up, inflation is up... If the sub base closes... people may indeed start taking notice.Genghis Connhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124232715823679562005-08-16T18:51:00.000-04:002005-08-16T18:51:00.000-04:00Anonymous,You and Aldon have more direct experienc...Anonymous,<BR/><BR/>You and Aldon have more direct experience than I do with Fairfield County, and I think you're probably right. National Republicans are becoming more conservative socially, but the New England variety is a different animal.<BR/><BR/>As for voting Dem to get the RINO out... Republicans did the same to Lowell Weicker in 1988. Joe Lieberman is still in office and still votes with his party on most issues, last I checked. Not a great strategy.<BR/><BR/>I haven't seen statistics about the "sophomore effort" yet. Might be something worth researching.<BR/><BR/>As for Blumenthal... I have a suspicion that if he does run, his campaign will turn out to be a dud. It's been a very long time since he's been in a competitive race, and Rell is gunning for him.Genghis Connhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13042849182723767087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124230781540581422005-08-16T18:19:00.000-04:002005-08-16T18:19:00.000-04:00So, will Mayor DeStefano be able to break The Incu...So, will Mayor DeStefano be able to break The Incumbent Rule?<BR/><BR/>Looking at your analysis:<BR/><BR/>Money: It looks like we're in good position on the fundraising. Will we spend it wisely? I hope so. What will Rell's fundraising be like? That will be interesting to watch.<BR/><BR/>Personality: I think Mayor DeStefano comes out ahead in this category. Yeah some people say that Mayor DeStefano can be a bit dorky, others say that Governor Rell is a bit stiff. Personally, I'ld rather have chianti with John than cocktails with Jodi.<BR/><BR/>Active Campaigning: I sure hope we can lead in active campaigning. I'm glad that a lot of people think that Rell is unbeatable. It gives us a chance to pull ahead in active campaigning.<BR/><BR/>The economy: Today, yet another company announced that it is leaving Connecticut. We are 50th in job creation. Will that be enough to get people concerned? That will be a big question.<BR/><BR/>Corruption: I don't think this is going to play a significant role.<BR/><BR/>National political trends: This will be very interesting to watch. My guess is that it will be a plus for Mayor DeStefano, but that is a hard call.<BR/><BR/>Missteps: I imagine everyone is hoping there won't be missteps.<BR/><BR/>Changing Demographics: I live in Fairfield County. I hear a lot about this, but I'm not sure I believe it. I think the national trends are more significant.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, that is my brief analysis.Aldon Hyneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00527868669926331034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124224540200688022005-08-16T16:35:00.000-04:002005-08-16T16:35:00.000-04:00Genghis,I think your analysis is generally very as...Genghis,<BR/><BR/>I think your analysis is generally very astute-- the generalities capture the "theory of the case" quiet nicely.<BR/><BR/>I disagree on one or two of the specific applications to CT, however. First, Fairfield County is not really changing because more Democrats are moving in-- rather, more people are voting Democrat because of national social issue trends. My guess is that the vast majority of R's and I's in the Fourth agree with Republicans on most fiscal issues-- but disagree on most social issues. With President Bush's stances on abortion, stem cell research, teaching creationism, etc., more and more are voting Democrat. Shays has successfully navigated this by strategically distancing himself from the President.<BR/><BR/>There is another interesting factor I've heard of in the Shays race-- conservative REpublicans voting for Farrell. The idea is that the Fourth CD is naturally Republican, and if they can get moderate Shays out, they can put "one of their own" in. I think they are smoking something.<BR/><BR/>As for Simmons in Second CD, he will win if the sub base stays open and will lose if it closes. Simple as that-- I think it is a one issue race.<BR/><BR/>Governor Rell will win handily unless one of two things happens: one (as you say) the economy takes a downturn or two, Dick Blumenthal decides to give her a run for the money. Otherwise it is a question of how big her margin is.<BR/><BR/>Finally, you didn't mention the "sophomore effect". If incumbents do get beat, it is usually the first time they are up for RE-election. With new Democratic Senators in Milford, Stamford, and Norwalk (amongst others), it will be interesting to see if the Republicans can put up credible candidates to knock them off. My guess is no, but we will see.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-10214263.post-1124217188131718692005-08-16T14:33:00.000-04:002005-08-16T14:33:00.000-04:00Focus on the incumbant's hypocrisy, such as Rell's...Focus on the incumbant's hypocrisy, such as Rell's support of the planned lawsuit over fund mandates in "No Child Left Behind" law.<BR/><BR/>(Mashantucket-AP, Aug. 16, 2005 1:25 PM) _ Hundreds of teachers from the state's largest teacher's union gave Governor Rell a round of applause this morning when she reiterated her support for a planned lawsuit over the federal No Child Left Behind law. <BR/><BR/>Blumenthal had to ask for legislation, when Rell could have authorized suit on her own.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com