Incumbent Republican Jodi Rell has a 74 - 13 percent approval rating and better than 2 -1 leads over either of her Democratic challengers:
62 - 25 percent over New Haven Mayor John DeStefano, compared to 64 - 24 percent June 8;
64 - 23 percent over Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, compared to 65 - 22 percent.
Gov. Rell gets a 59 - 7 percent favorability rating from Connecticut voters, with 22 percent mixed and 11 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. For DeStefano, 51 percent don't know enough to form an opinion; 75 percent for Malloy.
Her complete approval rating numbers which remain very strong:
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jodi Rell is handling her job as Governor?
These numbers are virtually the same from one month ago despite her not being in the news as much and Malloy v. DeStefano getting more press and their TV ads now out there.
On to the more important numbers: the election.
Again, from the Q-Poll:
If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were John DeStefano the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
If the election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Dan Malloy the Democrat and Jodi Rell the Republican, for whom would you vote?
I have said it before and I will say it again: this race is over. Sorry folks but lets call a spade a spade. It was over July 1st 2004. Take the party affiliations out of things and look at the average Connecticut voter...you know, the unaffiliated voters that make up so much of the electorate...and this is a no contest race. Think Bill Curry had it bad? You ain't seen nothing yet.
These numbers are virtually unchanged from previous polls. I expect that to stay about the same through election day. Fact is that DeStefano, who at this point is the front-runner for the Democrat spot on the ballot, is well behind despite numerous television ads in prime time. Beyond that, he has been in the race for the better part of 2 years and has been in the press a fair amount in that time, especially in recent weeks. The fact that he hasn't gained any more name recognition is pathetic to say the least. Furthermore, both he and Malloy looked horrible in their debate. Either one will look ridiculous on a stage next to Rell, who always remains calm and keeps her compsure.
Beyond that, Lamont's challenge of Leiberman is taking the wind out of everything. Since it looks like we are headed to a 3 horse race there, I wouldn't expect that to change.
Beyond all that, there are 2 bigger reasons the numbers won't change between now and election day; First, voters haven't been given a reason to vote for anyone else. And they wont. Pipe dreams are not policy folks and a great deal of voters realize that. Sure health care is a problem but no proposal to date has the answer. Transportation is a huge problem in Connecticut but Rell just got a major transportation initiative passed through the general assembly...with bi-partisan support. There is more to the list but you get the point.
Finally, and in my opinion most importantly, people genuinely like M. Jodi Rell. They feel that she is a real person that they can talk to and relate to...and she is. She has a certain appeal to her much like Ella did. The same cannot be said of DeStefano or Malloy. I dare one of them to stand on a stage and attack her in a debate. People will feel they are attacking one of their own and be put on the defensive.
Spin away all you want but that's the way it looks from my seat!
Quinnipiac Poll 20 July, 2006