Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Will He or Won't He?

More news on Lieberman and whether or not he'll bolt.

A prominent ally of U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman urged Monday that Lieberman run for re-election as an independent and not trust his career to left-leaning Democratic primary voters in August.

John F. Droney Jr., a former Democratic state chairman who helped Lieberman unseat Republican Sen. Lowell P. Weicker Jr. in 1988, said Lieberman should make his case for re-election to all voters in November.

Sean Smith and Nancy DiNardo are of course distancing themselves from Drowney's remarks.

Lieberman's campaign manager, Sean Smith, and Nancy DiNardo, the Democratic state chairwoman, immediately distanced themselves from the suggestion by Droney, who has played no major role in Lieberman's 2006 campaign.

"I believe that Joe Lieberman will win this primary. He has been a good Democrat, and I believe he will remain a Democrat," DiNardo said.

Speculate away!

(Added After Posting)

Genghis has also pointed me to this article in the Journal Inquirer, and this passage in particular.

Droney said he had not made his suggestion personally to Lieberman or to his campaign staff and that he had "no idea" of the chances that the senator would heed his advice.

"But I hope he does," he added. "What's really going on here is that you have a national coalition of extreme left-wing bloggers attempting to punish a sitting U.S. senator who doesn't agree with them. And they are putting this on a national stage so they can move on and take control of the Democratic Party nationally and statewide. I think it's incumbent on the leaders of the party to tell these people to go home, that they've got no business using Connecticut as a nuclear blog testing ground."


Pazniokas, Mark. "Lieberman Ally Advises: Run As An Independent." Hartford Courant. 6/13/06

Michak, John. "Lieberman camp remains mum after Lamont insists he agree to back primary winner." Journal Inquirer. 6/13/06


IfThere'sGrassOnTheField... said...

S-C-H-L-E-S-I-N-G-E-R, he's the one for me!

Just say it to yourselves, see how it rolls off the tongue, hear how good it feels to say, Senator Allen Schlesinger (R,CT). Looks gooooood.

BRubenstein said...

CGG..Here are the relevant factors involving the question.

1. Intensity Polls..both candidates right as we speak are polling the "intensity" of their supporters. Its clear to me that Lamont's numbers will be much higher then Joe's, meaning the % of his intensity of his 40% will be higher then Joe's intensity of 55 % who actually will be voting.

2 An expereinced and seasoned operative like Droney deals with Joe directly and its believeable to me that Joe knew and approved of the article urging him to bolt and run as a "I". That means to me that Joe is certainly thinking of it.

3 the Q POll of Joe running as an I is better for him by far then running as a Dem...most politicians are self-centered and its all about " them" in the end isnt it?

Example...Assume that the % of " intensity" of Lamont's 40% of the Q Pollis 45%..meaning of course that 45% of the 40% of the likely voters have pledged or committed to vote for him, equals roughly 18% of all likely voters..voting for Lamont. If Joe's intensity level is 33% of his 55% of likely voters then his pledged or promised vote is almost 17% of all likely voters.

Therefore the numbers are;

1. Lamont.....18% = ( 18% is what % of 40 ( neds 18+ joes 17 + 5 undecided) = 45% of the primary final vote.

2. Lieberman..17% = 17 is what % of 40 ( neds 18+ joes 17+ 5 undecided)= 42% of the primary final vote.

3 On the weighted average..13% remain uncommitted.

Recap: Lamont.... 45%
Lieberman. 42%
Uncommitted 13%

Swing factor..most uncommitted either vote for the challenger or dont vote...means Lamont leans to win even bigger...

David said...

I was not surprised, but very disappointed in former State Chair John Droney's comments re: Lieberman and the Democratic Party. John and the moderates in the Democratic Party used to rail against the liberals in the party for not being loyal when their candidate lost in delegate primaries or september primaries - for seating out the General Election. But now it is glaringly apparent. It is NOT about the Democratic party. It is about what the critics on the Left said it was about: power and control. When Droney's candidate is in danger of being defeated - fair and square - in a primary he calls us names and says Joe should take his ball and leave the party. He disparages the very people who are the heart and soul of the party - the ones who work and vote in primaries. He minimizes the views of the MAJORITY of Democrats in CT who are opposed to war and the other views of Senator Lieberman that are at odds with the MAJORITY of Democrats in CT. Now a former State Chair, who was deafingly quiet during the Rowland scandal, says its about Joe, screw the party. What a sad, tragic statement.

cgg said...

BRubenstein, I'd already guessed #2 myself. It seems like it might be a planned leak so that the Lieberman camp can gauge the reaction to it.

BRubenstein said...

CGG..and my numbers are good too...

BRubenstein said...

Ifthere'sgrassonthefield...then you are smoking it...here are the numbers;

As of 10/26/04..and the %' remain of registered voters;
republican 438,000 ( 22%)
democrat 670,000 ( 33%)
unaffliated 876,000 ( 44%)
min party 5,000 ( 1%)

totaling 1,989,000 total registered voters.

Replicans run at a higher % of voter turnout,usually then Democrats.Predicting a 60% total turnout, there will be around 1,200,000 total votes in November.

Schlesinger starts with about 74% of the 438,000..23% will be leaving for Joe and 3% to Lamont..assuming Schlesinger gets almost what he loses from the "U" 's his total vote in November will be around 428,000.

Lamont...starts with 66.67% of his base of 402,000( 60% of 670,00 voters) or...270,000 democratic voter...add in the 2% of the R's coming over..6,000( 70% of 438k at 2%) and the 25% of the U's..( 70% of 876k at 25%) = 153,000 for a total vote of alittle over 429,000 votes

Joe's vote will be 60% of the voting "U's" 313,000 plus 20% of the voting D's = 80,000 for a 413,000 total vote.

schlesiinger 428k
Lamont 429k

Grass...dont be ready just quite yet to pop that champagne. !!!!!

Ask his campaign manager ( dick foley) about my numbers...

Derby GOP Chairman said...

brubenstein said:
Schlesinger starts with about 74% of the 438,000..23% will be leaving for Joe and 3% to Lamont..assuming Schlesinger gets almost what he loses from the "U" 's his total vote in November will be around 428,000.

BR- First off, my name is Joe Pinto. I don't want you to think that I have the cajones of a chipmunk.

That said, I find it laugable that you actually believe that 23% of the State's Republicans will bolt to vote for Joe. Given the intense media attention being devoted to the Dem primary, Joe's true liberal leanings on most issues will certainly be brought to light by August 8th. This will kill the myth of the Conservative Senator Lieberman which willundoubtedly push more Republicans away from Joe and over to the more conservative Alan Schlesinger.

Aside for his/her love for the Schlesinger campaign song, I have to side with Grass on this one.

GuySmiley said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
GuySmiley said...

Well, BR, you've proved once again that through supposition and pie-in-the-sky math one can justify anything...you sure you don't work for the White House?

Couple of things: 1) You assume that the Q sample is statistically correct given the turnout trends of non-presentidential years, current voter reg info, and the geographic breakout of those surveyed. 2) You assume that R's will stay with Lieberman once he has bolted the Dems--and Schlesinger's numbers can only go up from here. 3) The fact that ex-con(n)gop chair Dick Foley (true?) is his campaign manager conclusively proves that you are correct in predicting his inevitable loss.

My_Right_Nutmeg said...

His conviction was overturned in 1996 by a Federal Appeals Court. But hey GS, let's keep disparaging people's reputations...maybe BR will report you to the FBI too!

BRubenstein said...

Derbt Gop Chairman..( Mr Pinto)..i respect you for your upfrontedness...However the numbers are the numbers and right now Joe is more popular among R's then D's.

His popularity rating is 70% verse your candidate who is admittedly just starting and with a low number.I think and the evidence of past history shows that 20-25% of the R's would jump ship to Joementum in a 3wat primary...

Remember the 3way with Dodd,Weicker and Duffy? more then 20% of the D's jumped ship and while your party is alot more homogeneous then mine...the same principle will work.

BRubenstein said...

My right nutmeg...I haveturned you in for terrible parody, which is a federal violation USC-1889 Section 102

GuySmiley said...

My mistake...did not realize it was overturned--liberal media bias again, i guess.

Anyhoo, doesn't change the meat of the statement.

BRubenstein said...

Guy SMiley..what are you taliing about...what liberal media bias?
The federal appeals court is known to be a conservative court. Furthermore Foley's appeal success was in the newspapers at the time.

BRubenstein said...

Guy SMiley..what are you taliing about...what liberal media bias?
The federal appeals court is known to be a conservative court. Furthermore Foley's appeal success was in the newspapers at the time.

GuySmiley said...

Don't go crazy there, BR. I simply didn't catch the articles--must've been traveling at the time. I guess, then, the statement is true: he was convicted, then EXonerated, making him an ex-con.

Nevertheless, his campaign track record is disparaging enough to his reputation. I suppose you could say he's the Roy O of the GOP.

Weicker Liker said...

I personally feel that Alan Schlesinger will not win in November.

He has as much appeal to voters as a brick wall.

He has little to no name recognition.

Your predictions of him winning the US Senate race is extreme.

turfgrrl said...

If this is a three way race, it doesn't matter who the candidates are. Rell's popularity leads the GOP ticket, low voter turnout results in the senate seat flipping to the GOP because U's break the registration advantage the Dems normally have and even the score. R's have higher turnout so endgame. George Gallo sends champagne to Lamont. Remember, when the left most wing of the Democratic party had a chance to pick Clinton, they stomped their way to Jerry Brown. C'mon brubenstein, tell us your grand strategy on that race!

TSCowperthwait said...

Weicker Liker,

Who is this darkhorse candidate from the GOP that you mentioned a month or so ago if Senator Leiberman jumps ship from the Democrats? I guess it's time to start seriously considering that as a possibility.

TSCowperthwait said...

Derby GOP Chairman Pinto,

I enjoyed sitting next to you at the GOP convention.

disgruntled_republican said...

Weicker Liker-

I agree that Schlesinger has low name recognition and I am sure he realizes it but to say he has no appeal is not true. Schlesinger attended my town committee meeting this past Thursday and I gotta tell you, he has a good head on his shoulders with some good ideas I plan on posting about at a later date...For dealing with the vocal group that is my town committee (you can say it was friendly faces but for those who have attended a RTC meeting in my town; they will tell you otherwise) he handled himself well and was barraged with questions and fielded all and answered fully...I would suggest you click on the link to the right and look at his website.

Just my clearly biased opion.

Derby GOP Chairman said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Weicker Liker said...

Disgruntled Republican and others.....

I am not impressed from what I have heard and seen from Alan Schlesinger's campaign so far.

I've seen or heard him speak four times. In person, on television twice, and on WTIC Radio.

Its a huge stretch that Connecticut voters are going to support him in droves if it comes down to a three person race.

First, I don't think he has much of an ability to connect with real people. He struck me to be all about numbers, and thats akin to his background in finance.

Sure, he was great before your Town Committee in Enfield. Talked about his conservative beliefs, ect.

Schlesinger is alot like Ned Lamont. One track, one issue, nothing really progressive about his message.

I thought his speech at the State Convention in New Britain was unappealing and flat.

Second, I've been to his website, every day since he announced.

His website has given people no compelling reason to revisit it.

Material on it is poorly presented.

Nothing new from Alan since he announced his nomination.

Nothing to say how active he has been campaigning for the office.

Nothing. Nothing. Nothing.

Thats a turnoff to potential donors.

Third, in regards to the mystery candidate, I still think Chairman Gallo's remarks in the "Roll Call" roundtable discussion - before the State Convention - were telling.

The State GOP has twisted Schlesinger's arm before: In 1998 he was pursuaded not to Primary Mark Neilsen in the 5th CD. The State GOP gave him an unpaid Legal Advisory post.

Look for a deal to be cut that would put Scheslinger in a judgeship or a Commissionership, should Rell win.

Fourth, notice how disrespetful the State Party treated Schlesinger.

Had his nomination last, after Rell.

How anticlimatic!!!!

70% of the delegates walked out of the Gym in New Britain.

Don't you see this as a sign that the State Party even doesn't believe in this guy?

IfThere'sGrassOnTheField... said...

the way I see it, a big steaming pile of dogcrap can go out there and run in a head to head race against either of our senators and lose 70-30. that 30% is the gop base--not this 22% or whatever was put up as gospel before. we've seen it, it's been done. johnson, labriola, franks, orchulli. in a three way race with a clear liberal candidate, a supposed conservative democrat incumbent who will be spending a lot of money convincing the people of his liberal credentials, they will split only that 70%. if this schlesinger guy can put his nose to the grindstone and eek out another 2-3%, i'd say he's done his job and put himself in a position to win.

Genghis Conn said...

We are, in fact, a nuclear blog testing ground.

I just love that crazy line.

BRubenstein said...