Sunday, June 18, 2006

Some Days the Bear Gets You

It's been a lousy week for Joe Lieberman.

It started off with a Lamont ad calling for him to support the eventual primary winner, and then got worse when Lieberman's friends tried to help by saying wild, dimwitted things. Lamont got endorsements from two big teachers' unions, then, even worse, a Rasmussen poll showed Lamont only six points behind among likely primary voters.

It was then that the strategic geniuses at the Lieberman campaign decided to unleash their secret weapon: Son of Bear Ad, which turned out to be a miserable, unwatchable flop. Lieberman ended the week with an acerbic interview with David Broder, in which he compares the Lamont campaign and its supporters to a "crusade or jihad." Nice.

The one bright spot in the week, in which the Lieberman campaign agreed to a debate, seemed like a bitter concession, especially given the venom of the Lieberman press release.

Now, newspapers which saw Lamont as something of a novelty (and Lieberman as a foregone conclusion) a month ago are now taking a hard look at the Joe Lieberman who has been revealed by this week's events, and asking tough questions about his character and motivations. Connecticut voters who were paying attention might be starting to ask those questions, too.

So it can't get worse, right? This has to be rock bottom for Joe Lieberman. The image he's spent years honing, that of a prudent, intelligent, thoughtful compromiser with a ton of integrity, has been tarnished, perhaps irrevocably so. His campaign is wasting time and money on ads and statements that hurt more than they help, and the media honeymoon Lamont is enjoying just keeps getting longer.

Lieberman is a smart guy with a ton of campaign experience. He'll find a way to pull out of the nose dive somehow. We may see some campaign shakeups, a couple of firings here and there, and maybe some better-made ads and a stronger defense of his record. The debate will give Lieberman a chance to gain back a lot of ground, if he can manage to show up as Joe the Statesman, and not as the bitter, arrogant candidate we've seen over the past week.

He'll come out of it. But by then, it may be too late. There is one way things could get worse for Lieberman, of course, and that's being Joe Unemployed next January.

2 comments:

GMR said...

The NHR editorial was interesting, but I think it's overplaying the chances that Schlesinger win a three way race. Schlesinger could win, but he'd need Lamont and Lieberman to get about the same number of votes.

A three way race between a Democrat Lamont, and Independent Lieberman and a Republican Schlesinger yields a huge number of new and interesting dynamics.

Fundraising. Where does the Democrat donor money go? Whom does the DCCC back? Where do corporations and others who typically back incumbents place their funds? Does the National Republican Party smell blood, and start funding Schlesinger? Will a three way race make it virtually impossible for Malloy (or JDS) to raise funding?

Turnout. Both Lieberman and Lamont on the November ballot would boost Democrat turnout, and most of these voters would presumably vote Democrat in the down races.

Straight Tickets. Rell looks like she could break 60%, and in any event, she's going to get a lot of votes from Independents. Some of these will vote Lieberman. Rell will be Line A. Lieberman will be line E or worse, depending on the town. Then comes state senator. So in this scenario, the independent has been skipping around the ballot lines, not doing a straight ticket. Someone claimed this would have an effect; I doubt it, and if so, it's negligible.

National Image. If Lieberman breaks with the party and runs as an independent, don't think that Republicans won't mention that on about every Sunday morning talk show. They'll mention how the Democrat party has been taken over by extremists, and how VP candidates don't even trust their own primary voters ("Just six years ago, this man was almost elected Vice President. Now his own party won't back him. Joe Lieberman hasn't changed his views in the last six years. He hasn't left the Democrat party. They've left him."

This will get played up after the election as well. if Lieberman wins, then everytime he appears on any talk show or any public appearance, people can say this is the guy who didn't trust the voters of his own party. They can imply that his party has been taken over by extremists.

If Lamont wins a three way race, then Republicans will say that the Democrat party has purged anyone who doesn't follow basic litmus tests. Also, if Lamont wins the primary, but the national party refuses to support him and instead supports Lieberman, and then Lamont wins the general election, what kind of relationship is he going to have with the Democrats who run those fund raising committees?

GMR said...

yes, of course, DSCC not DCCC...